Let's handicap Saratoga Race 8 (Tale of the Cat S.)

[letswastemoney]

It's the free race on TimeformUS today, so why not?

Loose on the Town (12-1) - His dirt speed figures make him look slow on TimeformUS numbers. But the connections are good. Castellano is always a plus. Underneath possibility.

Cadeyrn (5-1) - This one overcame a duel to win the May 18 race, and the final speed figure came back strong at 124. A win candidate.

Weekend Hideaway (5/2) - Sloppy track wonder wishes the scheduled rain would come in the afternoon rather than later tonight. Still, he runs decent enough races on fast tracks to be in the mix.

Chief Lion (8-1) - Speedy gelding likely needs an uncontested lead to win, and he might get one. Sharp fade in the True North can be explained by a closer bias. Win candidate.

Candid Desire (15-1) - Fellow gelding is better than the last start indicates. Cross out the wet track starts on his record. This runner enjoys a dry track and should close late.

Stallwalkin' Dude (7/5) - Obviously, this veteran is full of class. No one needs an explanation for why he might win. Top contender.

Candip (6-1) - Like the rail horse, he seems a step below. But note he did defeat Chief Lion at Penn National last November. The price is low at 6-1 though.

Conclusion

With some luck, Candid Desire can sneak into the trifecta somehow.

As for the win spot... Cadeyrn has some upside and might be able to score again. But Chief Lion and/or Stallwalkin' Dude should also be there.

[Robert Fischer]

6 is either right or he's not. It's his race to lose.

3 gets a fair spot after scratching from that ny bred stakes because he drew the rail that day. solid horse, should be competitive. A decent ride will see him track the leaders, rather than trying to wire.


6 and 3 are both chalks.


someone like the 2 has every right to run an improved race.


No bet for me. I don't love any of the chalks, and they could dominate. There is also a degree of randomness with several horses with either potential to be loose on the lead or to find a previous level that would make them competitive.

Way too much going on for a seven horse field with relatively solid chalk.

I'd like to see a $50,000 racehorse win and look like a million bucks to the betting public today, preferably the 3 weekend Hideaway, because I know his weaknesses fairly well.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Great stuff. Love it.

Leaning towards the , but could be an easy pass.

[PhantomOnTour]

nevermind

[johnhannibalsmith]

I think that Candip will run one of his big races. This is a little tougher than Iowa, but he's shown this move of a bad one off the break followed by a big one in the second back. The way he works and the fact that they run here at all puts me into optimistic territory - but I'm just afraid that there are far too many others that need to get burned up and run poorly to take a single digit price on him here. If he gets totally ignored then maybe I bite.

[PhantomOnTour]

Value on the at 5-1...hot jock can rate just off the madness and maybe get a jump on the

[letswastemoney]

I was hoping Candid Desire could have sneaked his way into 3rd. He had a nice setup...but could only muster a rally for 4th.

Oh well.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Two horses stepped up with big races there and it is always kind of enjoyable to get beat by Stallwalkin Dude.