Levels of contest thinking

[jeebus1083]

Poker theorist David Sklansky wrote about multiple level thinking in one of his books years ago, defining each of the levels and what they entail. It starts at an elementary level (Zero) and gradually builds upon it.

Level 0: No thinking.
Level 1: What do I have?
Level 2: What do they have?
Level 3: What do they think I have?
Level 4: What do they think I think they have?
Level 5: What do they think I think they think I have?

The same type of thinking can be applied to horse racing contests, albeit slightly different than poker thinking. However, the concept is basically the same.

Level 0: No thinking. Basically throwing caution to the wind. Playing random numbers (like someone playing the 7 in every single contest race), playing all the favorites (a proven long term loser in contests) or playing all bombs (another long term losing prop, but you may occasionally catch lightning in a bottle). You're basically there to have fun and nothing more.

Level 1: Playing all your top selections (What do I have?)
In a Pick and Pray format, this isn't the worst thing, as players cannot adapt to the changing leaderboard conditions. However, it is a non-optimal strategy in the live games, as "sticking to your guns" regardless of leaderboard standing simply doesn't work if you're playing from behind. After all, these contests are about accumulating as many points as possible. That Even money shot that you are gung-ho on might be a good play under certain conditions but if you're hopelessly behind, it does no good. Which leads to...

Level 2: Putting multiple selections in your arsenal (What do they have?)
At this level, you have not only your "A" selections, but also your "B" and depending on the situation, your "C" selections. This is where you adapt to leaderboard conditions, knowing full well that a chalk "A" horse won't cut the bacon, but the "B" or even a "C" runner may help you improve your position. Even in the Pick and Pray contests, a player who is skilled should be able to anticipate change (perhaps play aggressively in certain races, passively in others). But how do you decide when to use one of these weapons? Yes, odds play a role, but YOUR OPPONENTS are also a determining factor, which leads us to...

Level 3: What are my opponents playing? The top players are very adept at trying to figure out what opponents in certain leaderboard positions are likely to play at every stage of a contest, or at least getting a general idea. This is why skilled contest players at the top of the leaderboard in a contest will play certain runners defensively, trying to block contestants in critical situations (i.e. the endgame of a contest). If playing from behind, it might be as simple as playing a hopeless bum who has maybe one or two virtues, knowing that many players will look past this horse due to ugly form, unknown factors, etc. If you can handicap change in both horses and the contestants, you should improve your contest play. But yet again, there's more...

Level 4: What is a specific opponent/leader going to play? In poker, a skilled pro may target a weak link (fish) at the table, being able to read into their weaknesses and pounce. In racing contests, especially when the top players are in constant battle against one another, they pick up on little nuances. Does this contestant usually try and bomb with certain types of runners? Does this contestant try and play safe in the early stages? Basically using your knowledge of someone to your advantage when it matters most. Of course, if you play with them a lot, they may do the same thing to you! So at this level, you may find yourself mixing your game up, trying to throw a contestant off course.

I don't really know if there is a Level 5 or beyond in this type of game. If anyone experienced in the contest world can improve upon what I have posted, fire away. I want to learn and improve and move to a higher level.

[davew]

It has to depend on the contest type, methods of scoring, and when bets have to be recorded.

It does not matter what level thinking you use, if you do not cash tickets.

[Si2see]

In theory what you posted makes a ton of sense.

From my personal experience in the contest world I have made several observations that I would like to add to your post, but first let me give a little of my own experiences.

- I only found contests when my home track Colonial Downs shut down. I suddenly had no live racing action, I was coming off my best wagering year at the live meet ever, and then it gets shut down, ( eventually along with out OTB's ).

I start to search for alternative racing options, we tried to whole ownership thing for a while with partners and had the time of our lives for not a lot of investment compared to most owners in the industry. As the times change people change, and obviously so does many financial situations. Best put, the racing partnerships we had started were no longer an option.

This is when I found the contests. To be on record, I have always been a huge longshot player. I pride myself in being able to find several winners other players can't find. The little I knew about contests when I first started buying in online was actually a blessing in disguise. I just played the horses I would normally try to find. Literally within the first few weeks I qualified for the Horse Player World Series ( full package trip ). A week or two before that contest I finished second in a featured Saturday cash contest online and got a nice 4k payout. I was on cloud nine.

When I land in Vegas I honestly don't even know if I will have a room waiting for me. I have never been out there, never played in a live contest. Sure enough everything is what they say it is, free room, entry fee paid, flight money, etc. That first contest I didn't have any fantastic showing, but didn't embarrass myself either. All I knew is I wanted to play more.

For the next 2 years I play well, several trips won via online qualifiers, several placings in the money, never took home a massive score, but 2016 was my best year and contests made that happen.

On to the next stage. I have studied all of contest theory, and keep decent records ( not extensive like some ). You would think at this point I would be getting better and better ....... The exact opposite happens. 2017 was a horrible year. I don't know if the racing has changed, if my handicapping has changed, or if I am just not as good as I thought I was. I hope it isn't the latter, and that I have just had a rough last year, but only time will tell.

As you can see with my personal results, you would think as I climbed up each level I would be getting that much better. I know know what it takes to win, normally know the score that it will take to win, and can't make it happen.

- Level 0 I never played like this ( picking random numbers, odds, or names as you mentioned )

- Level 1 was more or less how I played before although several of my top picks were longshots.

- Level 2 This is how I play now. Having multiple picks in live mythical format, chasing the number as that number on the leaderboard changes. I know several people have success like this, I am not one of those people

- Level 3 and 4 doesn't really apply as game play in my opinion. When it is crunch time and only a few races left in a live mythical format, and I am in contention for the top prizes I will do like you said and try to determine what the people above and below me will play. Often times I am able to do so, with still mediocre outcome.

A prime example of this was Jan 7th in a HPWS qualifier. I was able to both correctly guess what the players above me would play, and what odds I had to play to beat them. Gates open and I am the only one with War Heroine ( around 4-1 or 9-2 if memory serves me correctly ). Horse makes the lead, I refresh the leaderboard, I am the only one in contention at all that has the horse. If it wins I am guaranteed the entry. The horse fades badly. ( to add insult to injury it wins the next start )

Did I play this correctly even though the horse lost ? I believe I did, but had no luck with the outcome.

Just my food for thought.
Jason

[classhandicapper]

This topic is very interesting (both in poker and contests), but on some level it makes the games less appealing to me. My mind prefers games where the goal is to get good information and understand it well. If I can do that, I'll know what I am dealing with and just have to figure out if I am getting the right price.

If I'm not only worried about what I have, what I think he has, and the price, but also have to consider all the possible deceptions and strategies that can alter thinking further, you can get into this kind of endless loop that makes your head explode. That leaves you with little confidence that you are ever doing the right thing.

I guess that's why in poker I preferred limit over no limit and why now I prefer cash over tournaments.