Derby Pace Pars, Sloppy Preps, and Danzing Candy

[maddog42]

In past Derby years I have posted so called Derby Pace Pars. They have been moderately successful. Ok, barely relevant. They will only cut the field in half, so maybe you are having success without them. I haven't seen an entry list so I will be including horses that may not run.
In the past 25 years horses that have competed well (within 3.5 lengths of the winner) against a pace run at 71.25 seconds or better, have won 22 of 25 Derby's. One of those exceptions was War Emblem who ran his best races on a bullring at Sportsmans. He also ran a 112 Beyer. Another exception was Animal Kingdom coming from a synthetic track. But even he ran well against against a 70.94 turf pace.
Many horses this year are on the cusp of this 71.25 dividing line, so I have tightened it up a bit. These horses will qualify on a sub 71 second, second call good race.

Discreetness
Whitmore
Dazzling Gem
Creator
Suddenbreakingnews
Danzing Candy
Exaggerator

I eliminated Shagaf because he ran his 3back and only ran a 90 Bris rating.

Horses on the cusp but still qualify are:

Mor Spirit
Mohaymen
Mo Tom

and Laoban ran his 4 back against maidens and he still finished second.
Gun Runner missed the cut by .08 second, so use your own judgment there.

I hope this helps in your handicapping.

Danzing Candy is the most intriguing of these horses. He didn't like the slop in that last race. I don't think a horse has ever gotten beat 13 lengths in the race previous to the Derby and still won. Not lately anyhow. A good horse to put in the 2nd and 3rd hole.

[Ruffian1]

Originally Posted by maddog42

In past Derby years I have posted so called Derby Pace Pars. They have been moderately successful. Ok, barely relevant. They will only cut the field in half, so maybe you are having success without them. I haven't seen an entry list so I will be including horses that may not run.
In the past 25 years horses that have competed well (within 3.5 lengths of the winner) against a pace run at 71.25 seconds or better, have won 22 of 25 Derby's. One of those exceptions was War Emblem who ran his best races on a bullring at Sportsmans. He also ran a 112 Beyer. Another exception was Animal Kingdom coming from a synthetic track. But even he ran well against against a 70.94 turf pace.
Many horses this year are on the cusp of this 71.25 dividing line, so I have tightened it up a bit. These horses will qualify on a sub 71 second, second call good race.

Discreetness
Whitmore
Dazzling Gem
Creator
Suddenbreakingnews
Danzing Candy
Exaggerator

I eliminated Shagaf because he ran his 3back and only ran a 90 Bris rating.

Horses on the cusp but still qualify are:

Mor Spirit
Mohaymen
Mo Tom

and Laoban ran his 4 back against maidens and he still finished second.
Gun Runner missed the cut by .08 second, so use your own judgment there.

I hope this helps in your handicapping.

Danzing Candy is the most intriguing of these horses. He didn't like the slop in that last race. I don't think a horse has ever gotten beat 13 lengths in the race previous to the Derby and still won. Not lately anyhow. A good horse to put in the 2nd and 3rd hole.

I went back and watched every replay of Danzing Candy except his 1st race. Every race, and I mean every, he was cool, calm and collected. All very professional, all relaxed. The horse had a full understanding of how to relax , rate, and respond when asked. All except his last race.

Why?
Well, without having full knowledge it was very obvious IMO that the horse was all worked up and quite upset as he was loaded into the gate. What got him so fired up?
I don't know. Doubt it was just the mud though.
He reared up while in the gate waiting to break and when he broke, he basically was unwilling to rate or be professional as he had previously been.
I read the didn't like the mud stuff and maybe that is right but for my money, there is something else that got him all fired up. He fought Smith until 1/2 way down the backside and was out of gas by the time he hit the 3/8ths pole.
So the way I see it, if something set him off in the paddock or wherever, and that can be avoided this time, he has a major shot. That won't be easy on Derby day.
I suggest keeping a close eye on him getting saddled and as they blow the horn and early in the post parade.
At 40-1 or whatever, he is a steal IF he reverts back to his professional appearances. That's a big IF, but 30-1 or 40-1 is also big.
Thought I would pass this info along for anyone that cares to listen.
Best of luck Derby day.

[Secondbest]

If NBC was smart they would hire Maggie to tell us this stuff. Watching on TV it would be hard for most of us to pick up.
Thanks for the info on DC much appreciated

[Secondbest]

Maddog
In this race this year everything helps.Thanks

[Ruffian1]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

If NBC was smart they would hire Maggie to tell us this stuff. Watching on TV it would be hard for most of us to pick up.
Thanks for the info on DC much appreciated

I've had the pleasure of knowing Maggie since birth. What a tremendous asset to racing and fans she has turned out to be.

I can't agree more with your comments.

Good luck on Derby day.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by Ruffian1

[/b]

I went back and watched every replay of Danzing Candy except his 1st race. Every race, and I mean every, he was cool, calm and collected. All very professional, all relaxed. The horse had a full understanding of how to relax , rate, and respond when asked. All except his last race.

Why?
Well, without having full knowledge it was very obvious IMO that the horse was all worked up and quite upset as he was loaded into the gate. What got him so fired up?
I don't know. Doubt it was just the mud though.
He reared up while in the gate waiting to break and when he broke, he basically was unwilling to rate or be professional as he had previously been.
I read the didn't like the mud stuff and maybe that is right but for my money, there is something else that got him all fired up. He fought Smith until 1/2 way down the backside and was out of gas by the time he hit the 3/8ths pole.
So the way I see it, if something set him off in the paddock or wherever, and that can be avoided this time, he has a major shot. That won't be easy on Derby day.
I suggest keeping a close eye on him getting saddled and as they blow the horn and early in the post parade.
At 40-1 or whatever, he is a steal IF he reverts back to his professional appearances. That's a big IF, but 30-1 or 40-1 is also big.
Thought I would pass this info along for anyone that cares to listen.
Best of luck Derby day.

I may be able to help you here. We were there for his last race. The morning prior to his race, he was being schooled in the paddock. He was one unhappy horse. From people who have seen many a horse, we'd never seen a horse act so unhappy with his ears flat back the entire time. It was part of our discussion the next day. So what happened with this unhappy horse? He's a runoff. The plausible explanation is that the horse was unhappy in the paddock because he had too much pent up energy and wasn't being allowed to get rid of some of that energy. He may have needed a short blowout before that race.

I hope to hear firsthand reports of this horse in the days leading up to the race. If he is happy and relaxed then I'm betting him. I Feel sure it wasn't the mud or the crowd that got him that day. I think it was pent up energy that got him.

[Ruffian1]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

I may be able to help you here. We were there for his last race. The morning prior to his race, he was being schooled in the paddock. He was one unhappy horse. From people who have seen many a horse, we'd never seen a horse act so unhappy with his ears flat back the entire time. It was part of our discussion the next day. So what happened with this unhappy horse? He's a runoff. The plausible explanation is that the horse was unhappy in the paddock because he had too much pent up energy and wasn't being allowed to get rid of some of that energy. He may have needed a short blowout before that race.

I hope to hear firsthand reports of this horse in the days leading up to the race. If he is happy and relaxed then I'm betting him. I Feel sure it wasn't the mud or the crowd that got him that day. I think it was pent up energy that got him.

What a fantastic piece of info. Thank you very much!!
I was confident that it was not the mud or the other speed that made him run himself into the ground.
I cannot say how he was in the paddock in those prior relaxed performances but have to think he was more relaxed.
It is no easy task staying cool and calm in the Derby paddock and the crowd going nuts when the horn blows can't help .
Both his works since have been faster than the trainer wanted. Of course, the knee jerk reaction is that the horse is just running off but you are right. Until we get an in depth answer as to HOW he worked and ears pricking like his prior races, except his last, we won't know.
I know it's if,if,if but... if this horse has his head screwed on come Derby day and gets a relaxed 1/2 in 48, which is doable in the right setting, the race will be over IMO.

Thanks again for the detail. Really appreciate it.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

I may be able to help you here. We were there for his last race. The morning prior to his race, he was being schooled in the paddock. He was one unhappy horse. From people who have seen many a horse, we'd never seen a horse act so unhappy with his ears flat back the entire time. It was part of our discussion the next day. So what happened with this unhappy horse? He's a runoff. The plausible explanation is that the horse was unhappy in the paddock because he had too much pent up energy and wasn't being allowed to get rid of some of that energy. He may have needed a short blowout before that race.

I hope to hear firsthand reports of this horse in the days leading up to the race. If he is happy and relaxed then I'm betting him. I Feel sure it wasn't the mud or the crowd that got him that day. I think it was pent up energy that got him.

Yes, good info. But when a horse has this pent up.energy, it tells me the horse & the trainer arent on the same page, & is a toss for me on the win spot. You can't have these hiccups weeks before the derby.

[bks]

Great info, thx.

Originally Posted by Ruffian1

[/b]

I went back and watched every replay of Danzing Candy except his 1st race. Every race, and I mean every, he was cool, calm and collected. All very professional, all relaxed. The horse had a full understanding of how to relax , rate, and respond when asked. All except his last race.

Why?
Well, without having full knowledge it was very obvious IMO that the horse was all worked up and quite upset as he was loaded into the gate. What got him so fired up?
I don't know. Doubt it was just the mud though.
He reared up while in the gate waiting to break and when he broke, he basically was unwilling to rate or be professional as he had previously been.
I read the didn't like the mud stuff and maybe that is right but for my money, there is something else that got him all fired up. He fought Smith until 1/2 way down the backside and was out of gas by the time he hit the 3/8ths pole.
So the way I see it, if something set him off in the paddock or wherever, and that can be avoided this time, he has a major shot. That won't be easy on Derby day.
I suggest keeping a close eye on him getting saddled and as they blow the horn and early in the post parade.
At 40-1 or whatever, he is a steal IF he reverts back to his professional appearances. That's a big IF, but 30-1 or 40-1 is also big.
Thought I would pass this info along for anyone that cares to listen.
Best of luck Derby day.

Danzing Candy has a triple digit Beyer, and beat both exaggerator and Mor Spirit. He won't be anywhere near 40-1. 15-1 to 18-1 is more likely, and very enticing.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by bks

Great info, thx.



Danzing Candy has a triple digit Beyer, and beat both exaggerator and Mor Spirit. He won't be anywhere near 40-1. 15-1 to 18-1 is more likely, and very enticing.

Danzig Candy may be as high as 30-1. Its fresh in everyone's mind what he did in the SA derby.

[bks]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Danzig Candy may be as high as 30-1. Its fresh in everyone's mind what he did in the SA derby.

The Santa Anita Derby was run in the rain on a heavy track. The horse won the San Felipe withe a 100 Beyer. He has very little chance to be above 18-1.

But please, let him be 30-1.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by bks

The Santa Anita Derby was run in the rain on a heavy track. The horse won the San Felipe withe a 100 Beyer. He has very little chance to be above 18-1.

But please, let him be 30-1.

He's around 43-1 right now offshore

[AirNate012]

I agree with your thoughts on Danzing Candy...I guarantee he will be 25/1+ at post...Definitely need to watch him and see how he acts.

[ArlJim78]

Don't think DC has any chance to wire the derby.
Everyone pointing to the San Felipe neglects to mention it was a six horse field, and he had an inside post and a big early speed advantage over that field. Yet to my eye even with those advantages he was not all that relaxed or dominant coming for home, having to be worked on by the rider, and Mor Spirit was in an easy gallop gaining ground on him all the way to the wire. Imo his derby will look a lot like the SA derby and not much like the San Felipe.

[HPFridays]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Don't think DC has any chance to wire the derby.
Everyone pointing to the San Felipe neglects to mention it was a six horse field, and he had an inside post and a big early speed advantage over that field. Yet to my eye even with those advantages he was not all that relaxed or dominant coming for home, having to be worked on by the rider, and Mor Spirit was in an easy gallop gaining ground on him all the way to the wire. Imo his derby will look a lot like the SA derby and not much like the San Felipe.

Good points, Jim, I agree.