Breeders Cup -Best Bet

[letswastemoney]

How is anyone picking against Unique Bella? I think she crushes the F/M Sprint.

[ISU-horse]

You can parlay Bolt D'oro at +115, Drefong + 125, Unique Bella +150, and Lady Aurelia -120 on Bovada and get over 21/1.

Probably doesn't hit but might be fun to throw a little bit of cash on.

[menifee]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

How is anyone picking against Unique Bella? I think she crushes the F/M Sprint.

I am against her given her price. That last field she faced was not that good. She's shown an hesitancy at the break and she sometimes does not relax. Her speed figures don't destroy this field. Facing some tough older competitors. Skye Diamonds has been really good this year. She is the most likely winner, but she doesn't offer value.

[menifee]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

Yes I understand that. What I said was they may not run as fast early as we think not that they wouldn't go for the lead. Maybe the half is 44 and4 or 45 not 44and1 or 44 flat for example. i'm forward for the race. Whatever you do, good luck.

I would be stunned if they don't go 44 to the half.

[Frost king]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

How is anyone picking against Unique Bella? I think she crushes the F/M Sprint.

No 3 yr old has EVER won this race. What makes you think, that she towers above the rest? Every winner in this race, at some point during the year has raced on synthetic or grass, and sometimes both. There are only a few horses that qualify this year, and she is not one of them. I might be wrong, but she has those two historical issues to deal with.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Frost king

No 3 yr old has EVER won this race. What makes you think, that she towers above the rest? Every winner in this race, at some point during the year has raced on synthetic or grass, and sometimes both. There are only a few horses that qualify this year, and she is not one of them. I might be wrong, but she has those two historical issues to deal with.

Do you really think that 10 races is a substantial enough sample size to throw out a 3yo? Why do you think that running on synthetic or grass during the year is important? If your above 2 "stats" are, in fact, powerful predictors then they should also be predictive in non-BC races at this time of year.

[Hoops McCann]

September

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by Hoops McCann

September

Big chance.

[Frost king]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Do you really think that 10 races is a substantial enough sample size to throw out a 3yo? Why do you think that running on synthetic or grass during the year is important? If your above 2 "stats" are, in fact, powerful predictors then they should also be predictive in non-BC races at this time of year.

You are betting her on a 10 race lifetime sample are you not? So I am using the data produced by the last 10 winners of this race to make my decisions.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Frost king

You are betting her on a 10 race lifetime sample are you not? So I am using the data produced by the last 10 winners of this race to make my decisions.

If I were to bet her it would not be on a sample but her entire career. Did you throw out Very Subtle when she won the BC Sprint at 3?

[bks]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

just hearing a lot of steam on her. Stellar wind is 0/2 in this race but she likely goes favored, Forever Unbridled has a bit of the slows and has to run a career best.

I see it 5/2 SW
3/1 Elate
7/2 forever unbridled

7/1 Paradise Woods
12/1 Abel Tasman

Something like that.

Abel tasman will be nowhere near 12-1. If she is, she's an autobet.

[bks]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Best bet:Abel tasman-Speedy types set it up for the big close.

Allan

Very much agree.

[LemonSoupKid]

Originally Posted by menifee

I am against her given her price. That last field she faced was not that good. She's shown an hesitancy at the break and she sometimes does not relax. Her speed figures don't destroy this field. Facing some tough older competitors. Skye Diamonds has been really good this year. She is the most likely winner, but she doesn't offer value.

Having almost gone through the all fields preliminarily, Skye Diamonds stood out. I like this thread and false favorites; they are the key to hitting multi-race wagers that matter.

For example, I enjoy input from all sources and I think he's somewhat interesting to listen to, but I took a look at the Out of the Gate episodes for Friday and Saturday. Jonathon Kinchen is so chalky on those two pick 4s it is nuts. Granted, they are small tickets, and relatively he might argue that ANY P4 BC day will "pay" but the odds these favorites win easy (or even win) is doubtful at best in most of the races. I know he'll have some Bs but I feel like a lot of that chalky talk you might as well just look at the morning line or at the track program "selections".

Multi-race wagers are for super confident players hitting singles here and there and spreading elsewhere. Also, taking shots on horses (like I will) like Takaful [with few others if any in that race] who are double digit prices and have a great shot to win, so you can minimize tickets and maximize wins.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by The Biscuit

Thanks bro for your input ... always appreciate the insight ....

Just to follow up, not sure if it was the rain or the cooler weather but the track was definitely tighter yesterday and played faster. I think it was still a fair race track.

Will watch again today.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

How is anyone picking against Unique Bella? I think she crushes the F/M Sprint.

That's one of the more interesting races on the 2 day card.

If Unique Bella runs a Groupie Doll level race and blows them out I would not be surprised. Early in the year she looked like she could "anything". But we haven't seen if she has actually developed as expected. If she hasn't, that race is ridiculously wide open.