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Old 06-09-2016, 10:30 AM   #1
Valuist
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California horses in the Belmont

Since 1982, I can only see four California based winners: American Pharoah, Point Given, Touch Gold and AP Indy. Quite a few money burners and beaten favorites. I've heard several theories on this; one was the winners almost always had at least two works over the Belmont track, and the New York trainers make the race a bigger priority. If a Chad Brown or Pletcher win a Maiden route race in the fall or winter, they may consider that horse their "Belmont horse". Other than possibly Baffert with Point Given, don't think I've ever heard a California based trainer say they had a "Belmont horse".

I will pass on Exaggerator at 7/5.
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Old 06-09-2016, 07:05 PM   #2
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I'll use Exaggerator in some of the numbers but you're assumptions are good ones. I'll take even one step further, the recent history of THIS race, The Belmont Stakes, has been the most erratic of all three races. Look at them all my friends, only a fool would not!

Last edited by burnsy; 06-09-2016 at 07:07 PM.
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Old 06-09-2016, 11:09 PM   #3
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Ky Derby and Preakness: only a half-furlong apart in distance and both contested on mile ovals that have shorter/tighter turns than most mile tracks.

Belmont Stakes: significantly longer distance, contested on a mile-and-a-half oval with sweeping turns that are three furlongs in distance. Different ball game.
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Old 06-10-2016, 12:02 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valuist
Since 1982, I can only see four California based winners: American Pharoah, Point Given, Touch Gold and AP Indy. Quite a few money burners and beaten favorites. I've heard several theories on this; one was the winners almost always had at least two works over the Belmont track, and the New York trainers make the race a bigger priority. If a Chad Brown or Pletcher win a Maiden route race in the fall or winter, they may consider that horse their "Belmont horse". Other than possibly Baffert with Point Given, don't think I've ever heard a California based trainer say they had a "Belmont horse".

I will pass on Exaggerator at 7/5.
I'm not impugning your deicision on Exaggerator, as I will pass on him too, but the post is a bit misleading. Off top of my head, Silver Charm just missed, Real Quiet famously lost by a nostril, Paynter (Baffert's 3rd string that year) led into deep stretch and would probably have won if not for a lost shoe, I'll Have Another scratched before the race. Sure I'm missing others.
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Old 06-10-2016, 12:08 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RXB
Ky Derby and Preakness: only a half-furlong apart in distance and both contested on mile ovals that have shorter/tighter turns than most mile tracks.

Belmont Stakes: significantly longer distance, contested on a mile-and-a-half oval with sweeping turns that are three furlongs in distance. Different ball game.
Yep. Horses with sustained runs do well in the Belmont.

The past winners list just reads like a bunch of what I call "grinders". Front end, stalker, mid-pack, closer, deep closer? Doesn't matter. Need a horse that wants to keep running.

This is exactly why Lani is so perplexing to me because he fits so many angles in the Belmont for me, but I just can't wrap my mind around him actually winning for some reason.
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Old 06-10-2016, 08:05 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bks
I'm not impugning your deicision on Exaggerator, as I will pass on him too, but the post is a bit misleading. Off top of my head, Silver Charm just missed, Real Quiet famously lost by a nostril, Paynter (Baffert's 3rd string that year) led into deep stretch and would probably have won if not for a lost shoe, I'll Have Another scratched before the race. Sure I'm missing others.
And none of those horses won, and they were all heavily bet. And there's a lot more failures than just the above mentioned horses. The few that have managed to win were all heavily bet.

I just don't think the West Coast horseman make the Belmont a priority, unless they've won the first two TC legs.
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