Nyquist's Vulnerability

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I had Nyqist as a saver bet but very disappointing exotics payouts. I doubt many people profited on that tote yawner. Nyquist probably 4/5 chalk at Pimlico and even shorter odds if Exaggerator stays home. The Chrome trifecta payed okay for near straight morning line and last year's tri paid extremely well with Tale of Verve. Trifecta or bust until Belmont then hope there is a Tonalist.

The public was totally right this year. 1-2-3-4 bettimg choices run that way. When you think of it that way, a $500 super isn't disappointing at all.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

The public was totally right this year. 1-2-3-4 bettimg choices run that way. When you think of it that way, a $500 super isn't disappointing at all.

I think people are disappointed because of the past supers.

A friend of mine, his wife hit the triple boxed for $2 last year & this year. I asked her how she picked them, she said I just boxed the best horses in the race by looking bat their odds.

Good luck hitting that before the point system.was put in. I personally don't think the system made the outcome tjs way, I think the breeding got a ton better on bringing out a few super stars, & the point system just coincided with the breeding that popped out great horses like Pharaoh & Nyquist.

[bks]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

What odds will Nyquist go off in the Preakness?

If Exaggerator is in the race, 1/2.

If not, 1/5.

[Stillriledup]

I would guess that the sudden breaker will skip pimlico and point to Belmont as the fresh horse. How is nyquist going to beat him with another quarter mile to negotiate? Breaking news rocketed home and really exploded after he switched leads, he's the most likely winner at Belmont (if they're smart and don't run back in 2 weeks), unless I'm missing something?

[cj]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I would guess that the sudden breaker will skip pimlico and point to Belmont as the fresh horse. How is nyquist going to beat him with another quarter mile to negotiate? Breaking news rocketed home and really exploded after he switched leads, he's the most likely winner at Belmont (if they're smart and don't run back in 2 weeks), unless I'm missing something?

I hear this every year about some horse that "flew" home in the Derby. It rarely ever works.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by cj

I hear this every year about some horse that "flew" home in the Derby. It rarely ever works.

Yes, I was talking to my mother yesterday, and she always falls for this. She was talking up Suddenbreakingnews.

First, I think this is just reflexive anti-chalk thinking. You want to beat the Derby winner. Which is fine, but you can't just look for some closer and declare him the real winner of the Derby. We've seen too many of these-- too many Commanding Curves, too many Avies Copy's.

Second, the race actually set up for closers. The only one who did anything was Exaggerator. Now, I am much more impressed with Nyquist than I am with Exaggerator, but if you like a closer out of the Derby, Exaggerator's the one to like. He ran the best of them.

Third, of all the Derby horses other than Nyquist, the one I thought ran the best race was Gun Runner. He was close to that really fast pace and hung on well after going six furlongs in 1:11 and a mile in 35 and change.

Fourth, there's no particular reason you want a deep closer in the Belmont anyway. The race gets won by plenty of stalkers and some front runners as well. Running style is different than stamina.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by cj

I hear this every year about some horse that "flew" home in the Derby. It rarely ever works.

Correct. Deep closers rarely meet much less exceed expectations in the Belmont. Nyquist actually has a good style for the Preakness and Belmont. Both favor horses at or near the front. Exaggerator has a chance in the Preakness otherwise it might take a newcomer to knock this one down. Yawn.

[sbcaris]

In this Derby the four horses that had tactical speed finished one, two, three, four: Nyquist, Exaggerator, Gun Runner, and Mohaymen. These four on paper before the race all were well placed early speedsters evidenced by the following:

Nyquist led wire to wire in the Florida Derby and had the lead in 1:08 2/5 in the San Vincente.

Exaggerator although a closer in the sly SA Derby was not a deep closer because he raced only one length behind Nyquist a the six furlong point of the San Vincente which recorded six furlongs in 1:08 2/5. Exaggerator was also only 1 1/2 lengths away from speedball Danzing Candy in the San Felipe at the six furlong call in 1:11 flat and had the lead at six furlongs in the Delta Jackpot which he won .

Gun Runner was also an early speed type with tactical speed. He was only one half a length behind the frontrunner in the Louisiana Derby at the six furlong call in 1:12 4/5 and was only one and one half behind the frontrunner in the Risen Star at the six furlong call in 1:11 1/5.

Mohaymen was almost always near the frontrunner in all his races.

All the stone closers finished fifth or worse. It was a tactical speed Derby for the first four finishers. Those horses that were stone closers in the past performances could not close ground to fill out the superfecta.

Side Note: Some cappers may call Exaggerator a closer but on close inspection of all his races he was not a stone closer at all. See my description above where he showed solid early speed in the San Felipe, San Vincente and the Delta Jackpot

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

In this Derby the four horses that had tactical speed finished one, two, three, four: Nyquist, Exaggerator, Gun Runner, and Mohaymen. These four on paper before the race all were well placed early speedsters evidenced by the following:

Nyquist led wire to wire in the Florida Derby and had the lead in 1:08 2/5 in the San Vincente.

Exaggerator although a closer in the sly SA Derby was not a deep closer because he raced only one length behind Nyquist a the six furlong point of the San Vincente which recorded six furlongs in 1:08 2/5. Exaggerator was also only 1 1/2 lengths away from speedball Danzing Candy in the San Felipe at the six furlong call in 1:11 flat and had the lead at six furlongs in the Delta Jackpot which he won .

Gun Runner was also an early speed type with tactical speed. He was only one half a length behind the frontrunner in the Louisiana Derby at the six furlong call in 1:12 4/5 and was only one and one half behind the frontrunner in the Risen Star at the six furlong call in 1:11 1/5.

Mohaymen was almost always near the frontrunner in all his races.

All the stone closers finished fifth or worse. It was a tactical speed Derby for the first four finishers. Those horses that were stone closers in the past performances could not close ground to fill out the superfecta.

Side Note: Some cappers may call Exaggerator a closer but on close inspection of all his races he was not a stone closer at all. See my description above where he showed solid early speed in the San Felipe, San Vincente and the Delta Jackpot

Sb, I've seen Exaggerator run three times in person. You are way, way off.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

You act as if the two are mutually exclusive. I assure you they are not.

I defended you when people were busting on you pretty good about your methods that they deemed nonsense. They were wrong. As are you in this instance.

Most of us weren't busting on his methods. It was definitely his delivery.

[sbcaris]

Dilansap: You said I am way off on my assessment of Exaggerator. What is your assessment of Exaggerator? Do you think he is a deep closer? If so, then how do you account for the fact that he was very close to the pace in the three races I listed above? In the San Vincente he was very close to the six furlong leader in 1:08 2/5. A horse classified as a deep closer will never be 1 length off the pace at six furlongs run in 1:08 2/5. Its an Exaggeration to even think of Exaggerator as a deep closer when in fact he was very close to the frontrunner in the San Vincente, the San Felipe and the Delta Jackpot.

In my opinion your assessment of Exaggerator is way off.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Dilansap: You said I am way off on my assessment of Exaggerator. What is your assessment of Exaggerator? Do you think he is a deep closer? If so, then how do you account for the fact that he was very close to the pace in the three races I listed above? In the San Vincente he was very close to the six furlong leader in 1:08 2/5. A horse classified as a deep closer will never be 1 length off the pace at six furlongs run in 1:08 2/5. Its an Exaggeration to even think of Exaggerator as a deep closer when in fact he was very close to the frontrunner in the San Vincente, the San Felipe and the Delta Jackpot.

In my opinion your assessment of Exaggerator is way off.

Sb, you can find some press coverage of Exaggerator. They didn't like the trip he got in the Danzing Candy race, so they announced before the Santa Anita Derby that they were going to try taking him farther back. After it worked, they of course did the same thing in Louisville (and will continue to do it in future races).

I mean, if you want to announce to the world that you think this horse isn't a closer so you can make some invalid conclusion about a Kentucky Derby where the 4 logical horses went 1-2-3-4, that's your call. But I honestly think you are being really silly here.

[sbcaris]

Dilansap: Lets just agree to disagree. Deep closers never go six furlongs in 1:08 3/5 like Exaggerator did in the San Vincente. Perhaps they taught him to rate in his last two races but his overall past performances do not make him similar to the stone closers: Suddenbreakingnews, Creator, My Man Sam, Mo Tom, Whitmore, and Brodys Cause. These horses consistently run from way off the pace.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Nyquist ran a great race but man this has become the most boring and fruitless 2 minutes in sports.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

Nyquist ran a great race but man this has become the most boring and fruitless 2 minutes in sports.

Who needs excitement? We have ever boring races in 5 horse fields every 27 minutes across the country.

You can not ask for anything more !!!