Saratoga Plays

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

As fate would have it, Saudi Crown went off at exactly 7-2.
I won't comment on the race itself.
Have I ever mentioned that this is a tough game?

Wagered: $242.00
Returned: $357.80
Total: + $115.80
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July 30 - Race 7
Really like the #9 Easter here, despite two speed runners scratching out.
This guy has a very strong late kick and has performed well on less than firm turf, which we will have today.
He got off to a very slow start last out, came 3w4w on the far turn vs a tepid pace and finished up very very nicely (last 1/2m in under 47 secs and his last 1/8 under 11 secs) to win going away.
Still ample speed in the 6-11-12 to set him up today and I expect him to come charging home as he usually does.
Prat gone to ride for Brown, but Tyler can get it done. Figure he and Motion are due to get even with Brown for the tough defeat of Swore the other day. Things always even out in this game, don't they?


$3 ex: 2-9
$2 ex: 4-11 w 9
$1 ex: 5-9
$14 win: 9
($22 bet)

good luck

11-2-9
The end of a frustrating weekend. Slow start again, wide on the far turn again, looking around on the clubhouse turn, kind of fighting Gaffalione, too much ground to make up, yada yada...ran 3rd.

Wagered: $264.00
Returned: $357.80
Total: + $93.80

see y'all Wednesday

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

11-2-9
The end of a frustrating weekend. Slow start again, wide on the far turn again, looking around on the clubhouse turn, kind of fighting Gaffalione, too much ground to make up, yada yada...ran 3rd.

Wagered: $264.00
Returned: $357.80
Total: + $93.80

see y'all Wednesday

Aug 2 - Race 9
Not in love with anything on the card today, but the #6 Mail Order may offer some value with Pletcher and two Wards in this race.
Hopped at the start last time and was last early, then progressed nicely in a race she likely needed off the seven month break to run a clear 2nd behind subsequent Gr3 winner (and very nice filly) Roses For Debra.
Hopefully the slow start is not a habit and she finds herself in her usual position near the pace. The Ward #7 filly is likely the quickest, but
she should take up residence just outside the #1 and be in good position.
Maybe Junior can get by her and make it home first if things don't heat up too much on the front end.
Using under the aforementioned #7, the #5, and reluctantly the #2 for Pletcher (who is very bad with turnbacks on turf, but Irad lands here and the Beyers are among the best in this race...her lone turf win was here last summer).
***Cutoff odds on the #6 will be 3-1, else no bet.

$2 ex: 2-5 w 6
$3 ex: 7-6
$12 win: 6
($19 bet)

good luck, and hopefully this week begins better than last week ended

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Aug 2 - Race 9
Not in love with anything on the card today, but the #6 Mail Order may offer some value with Pletcher and two Wards in this race.
Hopped at the start last time and was last early, then progressed nicely in a race she likely needed off the seven month break to run a clear 2nd behind subsequent Gr3 winner (and very nice filly) Roses For Debra.
Hopefully the slow start is not a habit and she finds herself in her usual position near the pace. The Ward #7 filly is likely the quickest, but
she should take up residence just outside the #1 and be in good position.
Maybe Junior can get by her and make it home first if things don't heat up too much on the front end.
Using under the aforementioned #7, the #5, and reluctantly the #2 for Pletcher (who is very bad with turnbacks on turf, but Irad lands here and the Beyers are among the best in this race...her lone turf win was here last summer).
***Cutoff odds on the #6 will be 3-1, else no bet.

$2 ex: 2-5 w 6
$3 ex: 7-6
$12 win: 6
($19 bet)

good luck, and hopefully this week begins better than last week ended

I'm officially on the skids after a 4th place finish by Mail Order yesterday. Got the trip but had nothing in the lane.

Wagered: $283.00
Returned: $357.80
Total: + $74.80
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Aug 3 - Race 5
Competitive race and I'll feature two horse, the #2 Let's Go Big Blue and the #5 Gem Mint Ten
The #2 had an eventful trip last out. Was taken up early, had to avoid a fallen foe into the far turn, had no room in the lane and still put in a run through a fast final fraction once free. The replay isn't available on the NYRA site because there was a breakdown. I guess it's a sign of the times, but I wish those replays were available.
The #5 plugged away when close to a very fast pace two back and did well to get 2nd. Last time he went evenly on the cutback to 7f and was behind horses in the lane without clear running room. Held his own through a very fast 34.82 final 3f. Galloped out pretty well also. Back on lasix, hoping Dylan puts him right on or near the pace stretching back out today.

$2 ex: 2-5 w 2-5-7-9
$4 win: 5
($16 bet)

***the #7 Blame It On Daddy does warrant a look at 20-1 on the ML as he's had two challenging trips in a row.

Good luck

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Wagered: $283.00
Returned: $357.80
Total: + $74.80
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Aug 3 - Race 5
Competitive race and I'll feature two horse, the #2 Let's Go Big Blue and the #5 Gem Mint Ten
The #2 had an eventful trip last out. Was taken up early, had to avoid a fallen foe into the far turn, had no room in the lane and still put in a run through a fast final fraction once free. The replay isn't available on the NYRA site because there was a breakdown. I guess it's a sign of the times, but I wish those replays were available.
The #5 plugged away when close to a very fast pace two back and did well to get 2nd. Last time he went evenly on the cutback to 7f and was behind horses in the lane without clear running room. Held his own through a very fast 34.82 final 3f. Galloped out pretty well also. Back on lasix, hoping Dylan puts him right on or near the pace stretching back out today.

$2 ex: 2-5 w 2-5-7-9
$4 win: 5
($16 bet)

***the #7 Blame It On Daddy does warrant a look at 20-1 on the ML as he's had two challenging trips in a row.

Good luck

$2 ex 2-5 paid $51.00

Wagered: $299.00
Returned: $408.80
Total: + $109.80

*I think McKulick is going to run big in the Gr3 Glens Falls coming up in about 15mins. Currently 9-2 odds.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Wagered: $299.00
Returned: $408.80
Total: + $109.80

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Aug 4th - Race 8
I like the move #9 Behind Enemy Lines has. At GP he easily blew by the top two when asked, and at Pen last time he made an eye catching burst to the lead on the far turn before being run down (but he fought hard vs the winner). I believe he was compromised at bit at CD when he hopped at the start and found himself further back than usual. He did hold his own when the pace quickened between 4f & 6f and all the way to the wire behind some runners who've come back to place or win in black type races (none of whom are in this race). All in all, I think he ran pretty well at CD considering the start and the competition.
Today he faces the Euro contingent as well as Brown & Pletcher but he's offering value at 12-1 on the ML. That may come down a bit with the scratch of Nagirroc though. The ground is yielding, he breaks a bit outside, and Sisterson isn't exactly a superstar in GrStks on turf.
He has gotten some cozy trips admittedly...trusting Rosario can work out another one from that post. Crossing my fingers and tossing Appleby & Carl Spackler (who may not be all that).

$2 ex: 1-2-4-5 w 9
$10 win: 9 (setting the cutoff odds at 7-1 for a play)
($18 bet)

good luck

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Aug 4th - Race 8
I like the move #9 Behind Enemy Lines has. At GP he easily blew by the top two when asked, and at Pen last time he made an eye catching burst to the lead on the far turn before being run down (but he fought hard vs the winner). I believe he was compromised at bit at CD when he hopped at the start and found himself further back than usual. He did hold his own when the pace quickened between 4f & 6f and all the way to the wire behind some runners who've come back to place or win in black type races (none of whom are in this race). All in all, I think he ran pretty well at CD considering the start and the competition.
Today he faces the Euro contingent as well as Brown & Pletcher but he's offering value at 12-1 on the ML. That may come down a bit with the scratch of Nagirroc though. The ground is yielding, he breaks a bit outside, and Sisterson isn't exactly a superstar in GrStks on turf.
He has gotten some cozy trips admittedly...trusting Rosario can work out another one from that post. Crossing my fingers and tossing Appleby & Carl Spackler (who may not be all that).

$2 ex: 1-2-4-5 w 9
$10 win: 9 (setting the cutoff odds at 7-1 for a play)
($18 bet)

good luck

NYRA canceled the last four races due to weather. It was nasty up there - look for the non Stakes races to come off the turf tomorrow.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Wagered: $299.00
Returned: $408.80
Total: + $109.80

.

Aug 5 - Race 10
Sigh, I'm going to swang for it in the Whitney with the Coach here and #4 Last Samurai. You heard me.
Looks like he's a lasix/Oaklawn horse only, but I think he's rounding back into form and is set to run a good one today.
After peaking this spring at OP he was down inside on (what I believe) a dead rail on Oaks day CD (see West Will Power in that race, who backed off on the rail), then ran a good race while making a very wide move on the speed favoring Ellis track & continuing on to be 3rd behind two very good runners.
Now Lukas puts three works in him, comes to the biggest stage of them all, and I think he's ready.

$10 ex: 6-4
$8 win: 4
($18 bet)

Aug 5 - Race 2
Speaking of Lukas, I love when his runners are making their 2nd start of the meet, and I'm on #11 Just Steel for the win. Rosario rode an 8-1 Lukas horse yesterday to a 2nd place finish (he was making his 2nd start of the meet also) and I think he takes them wire to wire here.

$12 win: 11 (min odds 5-2)
($12 bet)

$30 total bets today - good luck, and go get 'em Coach !

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Aug 5 - Race 10
Sigh, I'm going to swang for it in the Whitney with the Coach here and #4 Last Samurai. You heard me.
Looks like he's a lasix/Oaklawn horse only, but I think he's rounding back into form and is set to run a good one today.
After peaking this spring at OP he was down inside on (what I believe) a dead rail on Oaks day CD (see West Will Power in that race, who backed off on the rail), then ran a good race while making a very wide move on the speed favoring Ellis track & continuing on to be 3rd behind two very good runners.
Now Lukas puts three works in him, comes to the biggest stage of them all, and I think he's ready.

$10 ex: 6-4
$8 win: 4
($18 bet)

Aug 5 - Race 2
Speaking of Lukas, I love when his runners are making their 2nd start of the meet, and I'm on #11 Just Steel for the win. Rosario rode an 8-1 Lukas horse yesterday to a 2nd place finish (he was making his 2nd start of the meet also) and I think he takes them wire to wire here.

$12 win: 11 (min odds 5-2)
($12 bet)

$30 total bets today - good luck, and go get 'em Coach !

Race 2: $12 win on 11 pays $76.80
Race 10: WTF was I thinking with Last Samurai, who was basically eased?

Wagered: $329.00
Returned: $485.60
Total: + $156.60
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Aug 6 - Race 7
The #12 Fancy Stax really caught my eye when watching the replay of her debut. She was a bit green, bobbled a few times early, and seemed like she didn't really know what she was supposed to...then she straightened out for home, dropped her head, and really started to roll home, finishing a good 3rd. She barrelled past the top two on the gallop out, looking strong.
Stretches today with Prat in the irons and I think she's going to run very well. These are MdnClm so you really never know, but the ML of 6-1 is good enough value for me.
Post is an obstacle but I think she has a good enough rally to be a factor, provided she doesn't encounter a nightmare trip. Let's hope she behaves better today.

$2 ex: 1-9-13 w 12
$14 win: 12
($20 bet)

good luck

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Race 2: $12 win on 11 pays $76.80
Race 10: WTF was I thinking with Last Samurai, who was basically eased?

Wagered: $329.00
Returned: $485.60
Total: + $156.60
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Aug 6 - Race 7
The #12 Fancy Stax really caught my eye when watching the replay of her debut. She was a bit green, bobbled a few times early, and seemed like she didn't really know what she was supposed to...then she straightened out for home, dropped her head, and really started to roll home, finishing a good 3rd. She barrelled past the top two on the gallop out, looking strong.
Stretches today with Prat in the irons and I think she's going to run very well. These are MdnClm so you really never know, but the ML of 6-1 is good enough value for me.
Post is an obstacle but I think she has a good enough rally to be a factor, provided she doesn't encounter a nightmare trip. Let's hope she behaves better today.

$2 ex: 1-9-13 w 12
$14 win: 12
($20 bet)

good luck

With NYRA announcing that the remainder of the turf races today will be moved to the main track I will have to scrap this bet.

[PhantomOnTour]

Aug 9th

Had three horses that I liked and they all scratched. I can't find anything else worth playing on this depleted card.

See y'all tomorrow

[PhantomOnTour]

Aug 10

Yesterday was bad and today is worse.
Hate to sound like a broken record but there is absolutely nothing worth playing on this card, and I won't throw a pick out there without a firm opinion (although the Rudy #7 horse in R5 is a bit interesting).

With more rain in the forecast for this afternoon, I worry we won't have turf racing until next week.

See you tomorrow (maybe)

[PhantomOnTour]

Glad to be back on turf for a few races today

Aug 11th - Race 6
I'll go with #6 Marsalis to win this loaded Alw sprint off a dynamite comeback effort at Ellis vs a solid field. Out of a solid mare who's produced a few very good ones, this guy has never run a bad race. Should lay close and hopefully win this war. I'll cross my fingers and toss Dots Dollar, back on three days rest for Rice, and likely favorite Rotknee for the semi cold Maker barn (who will get company early from the #4). Will use Colonel Bowman at a decent price on the class rise as he may be flattered by the expected fast pace, and the Weaver #4 horse.

$3 ex: 1-4 w 6
$14 win: 6 (cutoff odds are 2-1)
($20 bet)
***CONDITIONAL WAGER*** if the #6 is under 2-1 with 2MTP I will amend my bet to:
$3 ex: 4-6 w 1
$10 win: 1

Race 8
Won't get into the details again about the #3 Behind Enemy Lines (see Post 35 in this thread) but will add that I like the solid work tab and the better post draw today. Going to spread a little in this very competitive field.

$3 ex: 1-2 w 3
$2 ex: 4-5-9 w 3
$13 win: 3 (cutoff odds are 9-2)
($25 bet)

good luck

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Glad to be back on turf for a few races today

Aug 11th - Race 6
I'll go with #6 Marsalis to win this loaded Alw sprint off a dynamite comeback effort at Ellis vs a solid field. Out of a solid mare who's produced a few very good ones, this guy has never run a bad race. Should lay close and hopefully win this war. I'll cross my fingers and toss Dots Dollar, back on three days rest for Rice, and likely favorite Rotknee for the semi cold Maker barn (who will get company early from the #4). Will use Colonel Bowman at a decent price on the class rise as he may be flattered by the expected fast pace, and the Weaver #4 horse.

$3 ex: 1-4 w 6
$14 win: 6 (cutoff odds are 2-1)
($20 bet)
***CONDITIONAL WAGER*** if the #6 is under 2-1 with 2MTP I will amend my bet to:
$3 ex: 4-6 w 1
$10 win: 1

Race 8
Won't get into the details again about the #3 Behind Enemy Lines (see Post 35 in this thread) but will add that I like the solid work tab and the better post draw today. Going to spread a little in this very competitive field.

$3 ex: 1-2 w 3
$2 ex: 4-5-9 w 3
$13 win: 3 (cutoff odds are 9-2)
($25 bet)

good luck

Oops - not exactly

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Glad to be back on turf for a few races today

Aug 11th - Race 6
I'll go with #6 Marsalis to win this loaded Alw sprint off a dynamite comeback effort at Ellis vs a solid field. Out of a solid mare who's produced a few very good ones, this guy has never run a bad race. Should lay close and hopefully win this war. I'll cross my fingers and toss Dots Dollar, back on three days rest for Rice, and likely favorite Rotknee for the semi cold Maker barn (who will get company early from the #4). Will use Colonel Bowman at a decent price on the class rise as he may be flattered by the expected fast pace, and the Weaver #4 horse.

$3 ex: 1-4 w 6
$14 win: 6 (cutoff odds are 2-1)
($20 bet)
***CONDITIONAL WAGER*** if the #6 is under 2-1 with 2MTP I will amend my bet to:
$3 ex: 4-6 w 1
$10 win: 1

Race 8
Won't get into the details again about the #3 Behind Enemy Lines (see Post 35 in this thread) but will add that I like the solid work tab and the better post draw today. Going to spread a little in this very competitive field.

$3 ex: 1-2 w 3
$2 ex: 4-5-9 w 3
$13 win: 3 (cutoff odds are 9-2)
($25 bet)

good luck

R6: $14 win on 6 = $52.50
R8: my guy had a bit of a trip - slight pinch into the first turn and crowded inside in the lane, but overall the trip wasn't bad & I don't think he was good enough anyway

All in all a miniscule profit of $7.50 today
---------------------------------------------------------------
Wagered: $374.00
Returned: $538.10
Total: + $164.10

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Wagered: $374.00
Returned: $538.10
Total: + $164.10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Aug 12

Race 9
Seems like a lot of public handicappers are trying to beat Casa Creed here, and you can add me to that list.
#1 Emmanuel has really come to hand this year now that he's gotten away from his earlier speedball tendencies. Went last to first while 4w around the far turn last time & launched a strong stretch run (in under :23) for a nice win. Serious win threat and the longest price of the top three ML picks (1-4-6).
Pletcher is holding the cards her imo...think Annapolis is the only one who can beat the #1

$6 ex: 1 w 4-6
$3 ex: 1-7
$5 ex: 4-1
($20 bet)...cutoff odds will be 2-1

Race 10
Field seems loaded with hangers and I'll take a shot with a runner who can pass horses, #4 What's Up Doc off a wide trip good effort last time out. Always shows up, fits at this Alw-s- level, and can sit just off what may be a contested pace. Bug allowance doesn't hurt and Torres is riding okay this meet...get the trip & get him home.
Not sure if previous trainer Cash is serving a suspension, but Ginter has subbed well for him, winning three times this year first off the barn change. Will toss both of the (suddenly cold) Linda Rice runners.

$2 ex: 1-10 w 4
$3 ex: 6-4
$10 win: 4 (cutoff odds will be 4-1)
($17 bet)

$37.00 total bets today - good luck