Rebel Stakes

[Tom]

Originally Posted by cj

I actually bet the winner but also had a 4-10 exacta box. I'm starting to think Combatant is a big time hanger.

I had a 4-10 box. Your LP leader in fast paced race.
Unfortunately, the WP money went on the 10.

[cj]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

The figures are subject to interpretation but then again AP ran a pedestrian Rebel in terms of physical time. It was the way he sped up as the race went on that was eye opening.

It was a monsoon, I was there. That had a lot to do with pedestrian times. But he didn't speed up as the race went on until the last quarter. These are the fractions, incremental, he ran. The last 5/16 are the equivalent of about a 24.45 1/4 mile.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by cj

It was a monsoon...

Yes, it was wet but Brisnet gave AP a 99 for the race so it's not like Equibase was in left field with their figure.

The splits in AP's Rebel 1/4 to 1/2 in 25.22, 1/2 to 3/4 in 25.59, 3/4 to 1.0 in 24.54, 1.0 to 1.062 in 6.02. That 6.02 would translate into a 24.08 quarter. Sometime between the second and third call the horse started accelerating and never stopped. Fair enough, it wasn't from start to finish as he slowed a whisker for up to two panels before turning up the heat. The point stands a horse dropping off appreciably at 8.5F or 9F is going to have a challenge winning at 10F. AP was not one of those exhibiting drop off performance. About 80% of Derby exactas are filled by horses that have a Brisnet LP of 95+. This isn't some aberration or angle lacking logic. It's common sense. Horses running well late at at 9F should outperform horses sucking air late at 9F. The last six Derby winners all ran final 3/8th in 37.8 or less in their 9F prep.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

You dont think if Justify ran say the first quarter in 25 he wouldnt run the second quarter in 24 and so on through the race?

They run faster early in socal for a reason, its what wins dirt races, and history has shown it wins Derbys as well (among tons of other races).

I dont have the time to go look at say Ill Have Another or say Sunday Silence's Derby Preps but I think your theory is flawed out of the gate.

Your second paragraph I agree with wholeheartedly and I think it's because they run this way it not only lends itself to more honestly run races but it's easy to see it makes these horses more fit for a Derby pace.

Philosophically I agree with F2 also though. An even runner or without the noticeable slowdown is more likely to stick around in the end. Excepting a really slow first half ala this year's Tampa Bay Derby.

[classhandicapper]

Does anyone know where I can find a replay of the Rebel?

All the sources I usually check have a problem with the replay. I was able to find a "head on", but no regular replay.

For the record, I think Sporting Chance moved forward nicely off his 3yo debut in the Rebel. His performance was better than it looks. I'm not sure if he can get good enough to contend with the best 3yos, but his race in the Hopeful was also better than it looks. So he may have the potential to keep moving forward quickly and may have somewhat hidden talent right now.

[headhawg]

Oaklawn Rebel 2018

Rebel 2018 recap

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Does anyone know where I can find a replay of the Rebel?

All the sources I usually check have a problem with the replay. I was able to find a "head on", but no regular replay.

For the record, I think Sporting Chance moved forward nicely off his 3yo debut in the Rebel. His performance was better than it looks. I'm not sure if he can get good enough to contend with the best 3yos, but his race in the Hopeful was also better than it looks. So he may have the potential to keep moving forward quickly and may have somewhat hidden talent right now.

I was having this same problem-everything was hung up

[Afleet]

That ride by Santana on the 10 was exceptional-just didn't have the animal

[PoloUK6108]

Originally Posted by Afleet

That ride by Santana on the 10 was exceptional-just didn't have the animal

Personally I thought he should have been closer since Ortiz sent Title Ready. Flattened a bit late obviously, but Combatant made quite a move.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by headhawg

Rebel 2018 recap

With respect to Solomini's action down the backstretch...the horse failed to switch to his right lead out of the first turn and if you watch Prat's hands, he pulls sharply on the left rein to get Solomini to switch (you can see the lead switch on the grainy head on as the horse gives an animated "roundhouse" with his right front at the same time his head is cocked to the infield).

At this stage, with 5 races under his belt and no lead changes, I think its safe to say that Solomini likely has physical issues rather than is simply "green". Curlin offspring are not the soundest things in general either.

The horse might make the Derby, but he's a marginal contender at best,
reminiscent in form of other Baffert china dolls such as Mor Spirit and Jaycito. The projected next race in the Wood doesn't instill confidence either, as its basically the race that is left over after Baffert has picked spots for his other contenders (McKinzie, Justify, and Restored Hope).

[storyline]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

With respect to Solomini's action down the backstretch...the horse failed to switch to his right lead out of the first turn and if you watch Prat's hands, he pulls sharply on the left rein to get Solomini to switch (you can see the lead switch on the grainy head on as the horse gives an animated "roundhouse" with his right front at the same time his head is cocked to the infield).

At this stage, with 5 races under his belt and no lead changes, I think its safe to say that Solomini likely has physical issues rather than is simply "green". Curlin offspring are not the soundest things in general either.

The horse might make the Derby, but he's a marginal contender at best,
reminiscent in form of other Baffert china dolls such as Mor Spirit and Jaycito. The projected next race in the Wood doesn't instill confidence either, as its basically the race that is left over after Baffert has picked spots for his other contenders (McKinzie, Justify, and Restored Hope).

Agree with your assessment of Solomini as a marginal contender, he didn't look good in works leading up to the Rebel and was underwhelming in the race.

McKinzie last work didn't look good to my eye (decent but not good) but I'm not overly familiar with him in the AM.

I'd appreciate your thoughts of McKinzie last work if you caught it.

[classhandicapper]

@headhawg Thanks for that replay!

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by storyline

Agree with your assessment of Solomini as a marginal contender, he didn't look good in works leading up to the Rebel and was underwhelming in the race.

McKinzie last work didn't look good to my eye (decent but not good) but I'm not overly familiar with him in the AM.

I'd appreciate your thoughts of McKinzie last work if you caught it.

I didn't see his last work, but McKinzie, despite the pedigree, seems to be maxed out at a mile in my opinion. Street Sense himself, if you go back and watch his races, was a terrible hanger, but was blessed with one of the greatest turns of foot seen since Victory Gallop, which carried him to great victories in the BC Juvenile and Kentucky Derby. His other wins were rather ordinary and he spit it out dramatically in the BC Classic. Actually, Street Sense wasn't much different in style to Arazi save for the soundness issues of the latter.

Back to McKinzie, he has been brave but not convincing in either of his two starts at 8.5f. In the Cash Call his quick move to the lead was matched (and bettered really) by Instilled Regard at the top of the lane. All 3 contenders looked terrible down the lane, with Solomini lugging in on the wrong lead, Instilled Regard swapping leads several times while lugging in, and McKinzie lugging out in the final 1/16th. Instilled Regard also seems to have distance limitations, as he looked good in the 8f LeComte, but ordinary in the 8.5f Risen Star. Some of that is tempered by the multiple shipping he had to endure, but he showed no stretch punch last out.

McKinzie also lugged out in the San Felipe although he finished gamely. He was stretched to his limit and yet ultimately he will have to deal with 3/16ths of a mile more. He reminds me of brilliant horses like Afternoon Deelites, Bertrando, or Golden Cents. 10f is just not their cup of tea. That's not to say McKinzie is not a major talent. He looked great in the Sham against a weak group. He has Dirt Mile written all over him. He might take down something like the Haskell, too, if conditions are right.

[storyline]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

I didn't see his last work, but McKinzie, despite the pedigree, seems to be maxed out at a mile in my opinion. Street Sense himself, if you go back and watch his races, was a terrible hanger, but was blessed with one of the greatest turns of foot seen since Victory Gallop, which carried him to great victories in the BC Juvenile and Kentucky Derby. His other wins were rather ordinary and he spit it out dramatically in the BC Classic. Actually, Street Sense wasn't much different in style to Arazi save for the soundness issues of the latter.

Back to McKinzie, he has been brave but not convincing in either of his two starts at 8.5f. In the Cash Call his quick move to the lead was matched (and bettered really) by Instilled Regard at the top of the lane. All 3 contenders looked terrible down the lane, with Solomini lugging in on the wrong lead, Instilled Regard swapping leads several times while lugging in, and McKinzie lugging out in the final 1/16th. Instilled Regard also seems to have distance limitations, as he looked good in the 8f LeComte, but ordinary in the 8.5f Risen Star. Some of that is tempered by the multiple shipping he had to endure, but he showed no stretch punch last out.

McKinzie also lugged out in the San Felipe although he finished gamely. He was stretched to his limit and yet ultimately he will have to deal with 3/16ths of a mile more. He reminds me of brilliant horses like Afternoon Deelites, Bertrando, or Golden Cents. 10f is just not their cup of tea. That's not to say McKinzie is not a major talent. He looked great in the Sham against a weak group. He has Dirt Mile written all over him. He might take down something like the Haskell, too, if conditions are right.

Thanks for such a smart and thoughtful response.

When McKinzie runs next I'll again read these comments and review the PP's and video.

Not to sound like I'm piggybacking but that's pretty much my sense as well. I look forward to reading your posts, thanks again

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by storyline

Thanks for such a smart and thoughtful response.

When McKinzie runs next I'll again read these comments and review the PP's and video.

Not to sound like I'm piggybacking but that's pretty much my sense as well. I look forward to reading your posts, thanks again

I don't consider it piggybacking at all, I think everything we are suggesting is backed up with visual evidence at the very least. Whether we are proved wrong is another story. Maybe Solomini will make 30+ career starts and McKinzie will win the Belmont, but I wouldn't bank on it at this stage.

Anyways, its fairly easy to point out that a horse won't truly stay a classic distance nowadays. The cliche is true really, that "none of them want to go that far".

To look at the 1-2-3 finishers of the Triple Crown races for the last 10 years or so reveals only a handful of sires that dominate the truly "classic" horses on dirt. Those are (in no particular order):

AP Indy, Smart Strike, and Unbridled, especially through descendants Tapit (AP Indy), Curlin (Smart Strike), and Pioneerof the Nile (Unbridled/Empire Maker).

Medaglia d'Oro is another classic stamina source I suspect--he sired Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra--but for some reason he's been getting mostly top class fillies (kind of like Quality Road at the moment). Not so this year with top candidates on both coasts (Bolt D'Oro and Enticed).