Putting an end to Beyer type speed ratings

[Tom]

First, let's keep in mind that this is a zero-sum game. By helping someone else you can hurt yourself

Well, CJ has shared much of his ideas and given examples over the years, and he seems to have done ok. In fact, he is the only here who is really walking the walk.

[DeltaLover]

This conversation does not lead us anywhere.

If we can claim something, without providing concrete and 'popperian' evidence about it, there is absolutely no reason of discussing it.

I am not rely to believe that this game can be beaten by using 'quantum' physics or any other purely numerical method. Keep in mind that I have seen and developed this kind of systems in real world,(of course not in the horse betting domain) applied in systems that were handling figures that can dwarf not only (as the tale has) Benter profits, but many times more than it.

'Numbers' have their share to the game and certainly can be used to spread some light to its complexity. Most of us we are already have been doing so for many years and there are many related methodologies and approaches.

Sure..

But this does not mean that we can go to the extreme of relying solely on any kind of a numerical approach as the silver bullet of beating the game.

Beyer writes somewhere in his books, that handicapping is primarily an exercise of creative imagination and I have to full agree with him.

The game is extremely complex, and it is impossible to attack it relying on an arsenal consisting purely from numerical tools. Thinks like trip handicapping, second and third layer analysis of a race, trainer intentions and many more, involve so many parameters that make it impossible to model it in any kind of an automated decision system and expect from it to show some profitability in the long run.

Horse betting is the most sophisticated form of gambling, that takes many years to master and requires on top of some level of 'numbers' feeling, lots of experience that can only be achieved by burning a lot of cash... People who claim that have discovered a one size fits all black box, that can apply quantitative methodologies to consistently beat the game are only kidding themselves (and some others who are naive enough to believe them ) and nobody else.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

Beyer writes somewhere in his books, that handicapping is primarily an exercise of creative imagination and I have to full agree with him.

The game is extremely complex, and it is impossible to attack it relying on an arsenal consisting purely from numerical tools. Thinks like trip handicapping, second and third layer analysis of a race, trainer intentions and many more, involve so many parameters that make it impossible to model it in any kind of an automated decision system and expect from it to show some profitability in the long run.

Horse betting is the most sophisticated form of gambling, that takes many years to master and requires on top of some level of 'numbers' feeling, lots of experience that can only be achieved by burning a lot of cash... People who claim that have discovered a one size fits all black box, that can apply quantitative methodologies to consistently beat the game are only kidding themselves (and some others who are naive enough to believe them ) and nobody else.

One of the things I liked about the CXWONG book was that even though he delved into advanced math and the use of spreadsheets, he flat out admitted that there were areas of the game that were best handled by human subjective judgment. To me, that gave him greater credibility because it meant he had actually handicapped 1000s of races manually and understood the complexities of the game.

It was similar in chess. The greatest greatest chess minds using the greatest supercomputers couldn't beat Kasparov for a very long time because he could "out human" them.

If there are teams of elite handicappers out there that also happen to be elite mathematicians and elite computer experts with access to terrific computing power, they are can probably do what Big Blue eventually did to Kasparov. But I'd be willing to bet that even their system will have exploitable flaws in "some races".

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

One of the things I liked about the CXWONG book was that even though he delved into advanced math and the use of spreadsheets, he flat out admitted that there were areas of the game that were best handled by human subjective judgment. To me, that gave him greater credibility because it meant he had actually handicapped 1000s of races manually and understood the complexities of the game.

It was similar in chess. The greatest greatest chess minds using the greatest supercomputers couldn't beat Kasparov for a very long time because he could "out human" them.

If there are teams of elite handicappers out there that also happen to be elite mathematicians and elite computer experts with access to terrific computing power, they are can probably do what Big Blue eventually did to Kasparov. But I'd be willing to bet that even their system will have exploitable flaws in "some races".

Horse racing being a game of incomplete information...I would have to seriously doubt this assumption of yours.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

This conversation does not lead us anywhere.

If we can claim something, without providing concrete and 'popperian' evidence about it, there is absolutely no reason of discussing it.

I am not rely to believe that this game can be beaten by using 'quantum' physics or any other purely numerical method. Keep in mind that I have seen and developed this kind of systems in real world,(of course not in the horse betting domain) applied in systems that were handling figures that can dwarf not only (as the tale has) Benter profits, but many times more than it.

'Numbers' have their share to the game and certainly can be used to spread some light to its complexity. Most of us we are already have been doing so for many years and there are many related methodologies and approaches.

Sure..

But this does not mean that we can go to the extreme of relying solely on any kind of a numerical approach as the silver bullet of beating the game.

Beyer writes somewhere in his books, that handicapping is primarily an exercise of creative imagination and I have to full agree with him.

The game is extremely complex, and it is impossible to attack it relying on an arsenal consisting purely from numerical tools. Thinks like trip handicapping, second and third layer analysis of a race, trainer intentions and many more, involve so many parameters that make it impossible to model it in any kind of an automated decision system and expect from it to show some profitability in the long run.

Horse betting is the most sophisticated form of gambling, that takes many years to master and requires on top of some level of 'numbers' feeling, lots of experience that can only be achieved by burning a lot of cash... People who claim that have discovered a one size fits all black box, that can apply quantitative methodologies to consistently beat the game are only kidding themselves (and some others who are naive enough to believe them ) and nobody else.

Good post. Numbers can be looked at as something of framework to the handicapping process but the push into profitability is generally found someplace else and that's much more nuanced territory.

[sjk]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

This conversation does not lead us anywhere.


People who claim that have discovered a one size fits all black box, that can apply quantitative methodologies to consistently beat the game are only kidding themselves (and some others who are naive enough to believe them ) and nobody else.

I have been black box betting for at least 15 years and have profited enormously.

Of course you don't believe anything so it is doubtful you will believe I am telling the truth

SK

[TrifectaMike]

Originally Posted by MJC922

Numbers can be looked at as something of framework to the handicapping process but the push into profitability is generally found someplace else and that's much more nuanced territory.

This a TERRIFIC post!!!!!

Mike

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by sjk

I have been black box betting for at least 15 years and have profited enormously.

Of course you don't believe anything so it is doubtful you will believe I am telling the truth

SK

Would you be interested in selling the black box for a quick profit?

[sjk]

No thanks Gus. I enjoy using it myself and my income is healthy enough that I am not tempted.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by sjk

No thanks Gus. I enjoy using it myself and my income is healthy enough that I am not tempted.

No problem...just thought I'd ask.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by MJC922

Good post. Numbers can be looked at as something of framework to the handicapping process but the push into profitability is generally found someplace else and that's much more nuanced territory.

Like learning how to use the numbers.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by sjk

I have been black box betting for at least 15 years and have profited enormously.

Of course you don't believe anything so it is doubtful you will believe I am telling the truth

SK

I hope you do not take that personal.

It is not that I do not believe anything but I am trying to apply the principle of falsifiability when it comes to concepts that can be verified or rejected. If you are not able to backup your claims with some experimental data, the conversation is meaningless.

[sjk]

I will not take it personally. Best of luck to you.

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

I hope you do not take that personal.

It is not that I do not believe anything but I am trying to apply the principle of falsifiability when it comes to concepts that can be verified or rejected. If you are not able to backup your claims with some experimental data, the conversation is meaningless.

Nobody is going to give away anything too profitable here. Not even me who has probably the least to lose by giving something away. What you get is broad hints. You can chose to believe their claims or not, but nothing is gained by calling them a liar. I try to remember that, but I forget sometimes. Now if you are selling something for money, that is a different story.

[TrifectaMike]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Horse racing being a game of incomplete information...I would have to seriously doubt this assumption of yours.

That is why inference is so critical.

Mike