Workout Accuracy?

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

Are there any published rules for official workouts?
Who clocks the times?
Who verifies the horse is correct?

What's to stop workouts from starting and ending between poles?
Are jockeys required to stay a certain distance from the rail when they are being clocked?
Do multiple horses ever "official" workout together?



Have you noticed how frequently horses dropping suspiciously in claiming price while having suspiciously fast workouts rarely race good? I sure have. Its one of my main handicapping staples. This observation is the basis for my questions.

[thaskalos]

The clockers work for the racetrack...and they report the workout timings to the track officials...and to Equibase. Even under ideal conditions...the workout times are as accurate as the clockers are honest. Not a very comforting thought...IMO.

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

Thanks. Is it with stopwatch in hand, or is the track supplying some sort of timing technology?

I was told by a track vet many years ago that trainers with big stables frequently lied about the horse that is working out. I knew him well and am sure he told the truth, but that was a long time ago. Is there any protection against this now?

I have always been suspicious of workouts and tend to ignore them except for first time starters. Yet I know regulars who depend on their accuracy to make substantial wagers.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Jess Hawsen Arown

Thanks. Is it with stopwatch in hand, or is the track supplying some sort of timing technology?

I was told by a track vet many years ago that trainers with big stables frequently lied about the horse that is working out. I knew him well and am sure he told the truth, but that was a long time ago. Is there any protection against this now?

I have always been suspicious of workouts and tend to ignore them except for first time starters. Yet I know regulars who depend on their accuracy to make substantial wagers.

What "protection" can there be at a time when the past-performance charts are still constructed by guys who are viewing the race with binoculars?

No one in the industry gives a shit about the "true accuracy" of the game's published data....and the customers don't really seem to care about this lamentable condition.

[chadk66]

as a former trainer I would put little stock in published works. there are many many variables that come into play regarding their accuracy. Such as how many working at the same time-you could have ten horses working nearly at the same time right after the break in the morning. Also clockers can miss a horse at the break off due to a distraction or whatever. Trainers do work other horses under a different horses name for various reasons. Clockers do have access to copies of foal certificates with description of the horse but honestly they don't have time to mess with that unless it's very obvious. Workouts late in the morning are going to be slower as a general rule as opposed to those first thing in the morning or right after break. etc. etc. And they do use a stop watch.

[Brogan]

If anyone has ever been in the clocker's stand during a busy workout morning, they will attest that utter chaos rules. It's a certainty that some things are recorded incorrectly, or missed entirely, but it's amazing that they get as much correct as they do.

It takes a special individual to work that job.

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

Thanks to all of you for your input. You have acknowledged what I believed to be true.

[dilanesp]

Even with honest clockers, horses moving past poles are hard to time. Hand times in track and field were on average 0.24 off, and that was with a gun and a finish tape. You should assume workouts within 2/5ths of each other are statistically equivalent.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by chadk66

as a former trainer I would put little stock in published works. there are many many variables that come into play regarding their accuracy. Such as how many working at the same time-you could have ten horses working nearly at the same time right after the break in the morning. Also clockers can miss a horse at the break off due to a distraction or whatever. Trainers do work other horses under a different horses name for various reasons. Clockers do have access to copies of foal certificates with description of the horse but honestly they don't have time to mess with that unless it's very obvious. Workouts late in the morning are going to be slower as a general rule as opposed to those first thing in the morning or right after break. etc. etc. And they do use a stop watch.

I own horses and the above is correct. I received many emails from the managing partner stating don't worry about the equibase time (I would get stable alerts w/my horses workouts) it was incorrect or timed to the wrong pole, got the wrong horse, counted the gallop out as part of the official work time, etc. But some workouts times are correct-so its a guessing game

[jdhanover]

Wonder if gate workouts are closer to accurate since the start is clear.

[jay68802]

I never thought that the times could be that accurate but I still like seeing regular works such as every week or every 9 days.

[Zaf]

Originally Posted by jay68802

I never thought that the times could be that accurate but I still like seeing regular works such as every week or every 9 days.

Agree

Z

[Track Phantom]

I review clocker reports for So. Cal. I like to cross-reference to get a consensus. The best way to use workouts is understanding how a trainer normally works their horses. Sometimes, a trainer might work a horse a slow 3F right before a race when the horse is ready. But you have to do the homework (Formulator is great for this) to find tendencies. All in all, it's a subjective data point to use to exclude or reinforce an opinion. In a vacuum, their basically meaningless to the public without additional context. Potential inaccuracies only add to the light weighting in decision making.

[Elliott Sidewater]

I once took a car trip down to Atlantic City Racetrack with a clocker, who was a mutual friend of those who invited me to ride with them. If the conversation in the car was a song, it would have been Don Henley's The End of the Innocence. Getting to the clocker math, the clocker bragged about seeing an unraced 2 yo colt go 47 2/5 from the gate around the break of dawn one morning. The workout was reported as 49 flat, which is 47 plus 2. Since he had to get up at 4:30 in the morning just about every day of his life, he felt entitled to do his job "as he saw fit". Now this was over 35 years ago, I hope but am not convinced that mentality has disappeared.

[chadk66]

Originally Posted by jdhanover

Wonder if gate workouts are closer to accurate since the start is clear.

no because they can't sit and stare at the gate waiting for it to open while other horses are working. So in that respect it's no different.