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Old 01-04-2018, 01:45 PM   #1366
pandy
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I've made a slight change to off track (Mud, Slop, Soft, Yielding) speed figures.

https://timeformusblog.com/2018/01/0...speed-figures/
That's interesting. There are certainly a lot of suspiciously high off track figures, so it seems to make sense.
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Old 01-04-2018, 01:47 PM   #1367
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That's interesting. There are certainly a lot of suspiciously high off track figures, so it seems to make sense.
I wouldn't have done it if the data didn't back up the visuals.
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Old 01-04-2018, 02:01 PM   #1368
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I used to downgrade the figures of any horse that broke its maiden for a tag, based on my analysis which showed that according to the figures I was making, on average, horses that came off of maiden wins in claiming races usually ran a figure of at least 5 points slower in their next start. A well known turf writer told me that I shouldn't do that, saying that "the figure is the figure."

My response was, "I want my figures to work. By making this adjustment, the figures are better, and that's what counts in the long run."
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Old 01-04-2018, 02:03 PM   #1369
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Originally Posted by pandy View Post
I used to downgrade the figures of any horse that broke its maiden for a tag, based on my analysis which showed that according to the figures I was making, on average, horses that came off of maiden wins in claiming races usually ran a figure of at least 5 points slower in their next start. A well known turf writer told me that I shouldn't do that, saying that "the figure is the figure."

My response was, "I want my figures to work. By making this adjustment, the figures are better, and that's what counts in the long run."
I agree. I think there are actual reasons why this works in this case, not just basing it on data, but whatever works. Beyer already does this with turf races but in the opposite direction.
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Old 01-06-2018, 08:35 AM   #1370
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy View Post
I used to downgrade the figures of any horse that broke its maiden for a tag, based on my analysis which showed that according to the figures I was making, on average, horses that came off of maiden wins in claiming races usually ran a figure of at least 5 points slower in their next start. A well known turf writer told me that I shouldn't do that, saying that "the figure is the figure."

My response was, "I want my figures to work. By making this adjustment, the figures are better, and that's what counts in the long run."
A long time rule of thumb was the a MC winner "should" be competitive in a race that is half of its MC price...
EX:

A horse won a MC 30,000....should be competitive in an 15,000 claimer

I know your talking figs but class is important too
Mike

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Old 01-06-2018, 12:06 PM   #1371
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The DRF does not show TimeformUS pace numbers for Horse "April Fifteenth" in Tampa Bay 6th race (Jan6 2018)...Do you have a figure for her...?
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Old 01-06-2018, 12:06 PM   #1372
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I've made a slight change to off track (Mud, Slop, Soft, Yielding) speed figures.

https://timeformusblog.com/2018/01/0...speed-figures/
When I review trips/biases for a day, if the track was off, I will make a note when the margins between horses were larger than usual so I can make mental adjustments to figures next time the horses run. In my personal class ratings, I make adjustments like these for big winners.

If you did an archive search on Thorograph from years ago, I recommended that he do this exact research and consider these kinds of adjustments to improve his off track figures. I think this will definitely improve the figures.
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Old 01-06-2018, 03:03 PM   #1373
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The DRF does not show TimeformUS pace numbers for Horse "April Fifteenth" in Tampa Bay 6th race (Jan6 2018)...Do you have a figure for her...?
Horse just won at 4 to 1
Kind of wondering why there was no Time form number on the DRF...?
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Old 01-06-2018, 05:24 PM   #1374
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The DRF does not show TimeformUS pace numbers for Horse "April Fifteenth" in Tampa Bay 6th race (Jan6 2018)...Do you have a figure for her...?

Sorry, wasn't around earlier.

There was a problem with timing on the race. The fractions were added in later, but I didn't trust them, so there are no pace figures. There was a final time number of 90 which was the best in the field. If you see a final time number, it means pace figures were not made for the race.

That was a race where Beyer and myself were far apart. I gave the race a 99 (about 79 Beyer scale), he gave it a 62.
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Old 01-07-2018, 08:50 PM   #1375
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Sorry I wasted my time.
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Old 01-07-2018, 09:08 PM   #1376
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Sorry I wasted my time.
April Fifteenth raced good though erratic in the stretch...

Last edited by VigorsTheGrey; 01-07-2018 at 09:09 PM.
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Old 01-07-2018, 09:44 PM   #1377
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April Fifteenth raced good though erratic in the stretch...
What does that have to do with what you quoted?
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Old 01-07-2018, 09:49 PM   #1378
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What does that have to do with what you quoted?
I was just trying to figure out if what you just posted about wasting your time was related to my post or something else...
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Old 01-07-2018, 09:59 PM   #1379
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There were a couple of past performance anomalies today (7Jan18)in Gulfstreams' 6th race for example: Both Money Factor and Queen Jill last race had dashes where the DRF Speed Rating/ Variant would be. The race in question was 17Dec17-8GP.

In the 9th race also, Attribute and Lunaire show similar dashes for races 3Dec17-6Aqu and 24Nov17-8. Do you have any idea why the DRF omits figures for these races...? Is it a timer issue or just a reporting oversight..?

Last edited by VigorsTheGrey; 01-07-2018 at 10:00 PM.
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Old 01-07-2018, 10:24 PM   #1380
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I was just trying to figure out if what you just posted about wasting your time was related to my post or something else...
Yes, you seem to ask me questions but when I reply, nothing. Maybe the answer here was perfect and required no reply, but it isn't the first time you've done this. My answers aren't that good. 🤣
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