Tough Sledding at Saratoga!!! - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

FRMNBRI · 07-29-2022, 01:57 AM

This is not a complaint thread as Saratoga is probably the most serene racetrack, full of rich history, amazing landmarks and of course IMO the best jockey colony and much much more. I sit down everynight, print out the clocker reports, read artcicles, watch replays and study the form. I by far spend more time on capping Saratoga then any other track right now. After hours at the desk and finalizing my pick 4, 5s I punch my ticket.

I have yet to cash anything worth mentioning since opening day. I dont brag about hitting the pick 5 today because everyone was alive in last 2 legs

. Its been TOUGH SLEDDING!!!

I have never gone 1 for 5 or 2 for 5 so many times. Its absoulutely insane and I know it is extra tough at the spa because every jock is solid and for the most part and the horses are the cream of the crop.

Anyways I just wanted to see how others are doing and if they are adding to their bankroll or like me, giving my money to the few that hit those monster payouts we have seen lately.

Hope everyone is having fun and staying safe. Lets hope for a good day tomorrow and lets cash some tickets!!!!

usfgeology · 07-29-2022, 08:46 AM

Year in, year out the Saratoga and Keeneland meets for me are the hardest to stay away from and hardest to be profitable.

FRMNBRI · 07-30-2022, 03:44 AM

thought this post would get some talk going, intstead of hearing about the everyday fix races, or tractor F-UP. It was meant to be about the tough cards and trying to cash at the Spa.

geroge.burns99 · 07-30-2022, 06:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FRMNBRI

thought this post would get some talk going, intstead of hearing about the everyday fix races, or tractor F-UP. It was meant to be about the tough cards and trying to cash at the Spa.

How do you handicap?

geroge.burns99 · 07-30-2022, 06:26 AM

Heres a little start....

TOP 5 ML's are winning ....

Use TOP FR1 Rank within those 5 ......any class...dirt sprints & turf route preferred

of course things can turn

mike

JustRalph · 07-30-2022, 06:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by usfgeology

Year in, year out the Saratoga and Keeneland meets for me are the hardest to stay away from and hardest to be profitable.

Ditto. These were the two tracks I would travel hundreds of miles to attend. Lose my ass and still go home smiling, most of the time. I just could not handicap these boutique high profile events where owners want to be seen and big stakes races were the focus.

Redboard · 07-30-2022, 06:56 AM

Those pk4,pk5 & pk6 bets are tough. I'd suggest trying rolling pick 3s. Say you're alive in the last leg with three short prices. Then you can hedge with a dutch win bets.

alhattab · 07-30-2022, 09:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FRMNBRI

This is not a complaint thread as Saratoga is probably the most serene racetrack, full of rich history, amazing landmarks and of course IMO the best jockey colony and much much more. I sit down everynight, print out the clocker reports, read artcicles, watch replays and study the form. I by far spend more time on capping Saratoga then any other track right now. After hours at the desk and finalizing my pick 4, 5s I punch my ticket.

I have yet to cash anything worth mentioning since opening day. I dont brag about hitting the pick 5 today because everyone was alive in last 2 legs

. Its been TOUGH SLEDDING!!!

I have never gone 1 for 5 or 2 for 5 so many times. Its absoulutely insane and I know it is extra tough at the spa because every jock is solid and for the most part and the horses are the cream of the crop.

Anyways I just wanted to see how others are doing and if they are adding to their bankroll or like me, giving my money to the few that hit those monster payouts we have seen lately.

Hope everyone is having fun and staying safe. Lets hope for a good day tomorrow and lets cash some tickets!!!!

Been doing ok lately. Caught the early pick 4 Wednesday which paid pretty good, and just missed Thu early pick 5 (had the 3 in race 2). Before then was just ok. Some luck involved when the 4/5 FTS for Clement had trouble (his workmate won in a canter on Fri). My biggest challenge there is being selective. So many of these races are so fun to handicap and play, so I play them even if I don’t have a strong opinion. Especially true in the horizontals where every day seems to present the opportunity for a big score and I don’t want to miss out.

No magic to my methods by any stretch (I’m down for the year) but I do think the best way to find value there is to focus on lower profile connections that have a real shot. Wednesday’s 3rd was a good example- 1ster for Mitch Friedman ridden by Castellano (I get he’s not exactly low profile but relatively speaking he is for this meet) was useable- sib for same connections won 1st out. He was 7-1. On Sunday 7/24 Dr Love for Dallas Stewart and Junior paid $9.80 off a terrific work that you could see on xbtv, and some luck (in this case a dream trip).

All the best the rest of the way!

geroge.burns99 · 07-30-2022, 09:29 AM

your best bet on getting big hits is on the turf....

so much can happen during the race and the luckiest comes out the winner

lamboguy · 07-30-2022, 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alhattab

Been doing ok lately. Caught the early pick 4 Wednesday which paid pretty good, and just missed Thu early pick 5 (had the 3 in race 2). Before then was just ok. Some luck involved when the 4/5 FTS for Clement had trouble (his workmate won in a canter on Fri). My biggest challenge there is being selective. So many of these races are so fun to handicap and play, so I play them even if I don’t have a strong opinion. Especially true in the horizontals where every day seems to present the opportunity for a big score and I don’t want to miss out.

No magic to my methods by any stretch (I’m down for the year) but I do think the best way to find value there is to focus on lower profile connections that have a real shot. Wednesday’s 3rd was a good example- 1ster for Mitch Friedman ridden by Castellano (I get he’s not exactly low profile but relatively speaking he is for this meet) was useable- sib for same connections won 1st out. He was 7-1. On Sunday 7/24 Dr Love for Dallas Stewart and Junior paid $9.80 off a terrific work that you could see on xbtv, and some luck (in this case a dream trip).

All the best the rest of the way!

Javier is a great rider, nothing under the radar with that guy

RunDustyRun · 07-30-2022, 10:51 AM

Step one ---throw out any Eric Cancel and Herman Harkie mounts...and look closely at any horses they're taken off of...

In all honesty, I have been successful this meet with trying to find one strong opinion on a race or horse, and then building my tickets around that horse. I have hit my share of pick fives by singling my strongest opinion and then going deep in other legs...and then having backup or saver tickets behind it...of course having a bigger bankroll helps...

all that being said, I got killed yesterday as my two strongest plays failed to win...its all or nothing

FRMNBRI · 07-30-2022, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunDustyRun

Step one ---throw out any Eric Cancel and Herman Harkie mounts...and look closely at any horses they're taken off of...

In all honesty, I have been successful this meet with trying to find one strong opinion on a race or horse, and then building my tickets around that horse. I have hit my share of pick fives by singling my strongest opinion and then going deep in other legs...and then having backup or saver tickets behind it...of course having a bigger bankroll helps...

all that being said, I got killed yesterday as my two strongest plays failed to win...its all or nothing

This is great. I love seeing all activity on the thread. Thank you. For the guys that are winning congrats. I got knocked around yesterday again and well just now with that

at 21-1 winning. The hard part is finding a running line on a horse that won or performed well at Saratoga to compare notes with since the meet is so short relatively speaking. Bottom line it kicks my ass and emptys my safe but I keep trying.

Its like when they interview the trainers after a race they all say the samething. "Just happy to get a win here at Saratgoa"

Tom · 07-30-2022, 02:21 PM

Lookat R4 today.....merry-go-round race with the greatest jockey colony ever looking like idiots all around the track.
You can have Saratoga.
You know what the difference between Toga and Aqueduct is?

Two year olds and turf races.

ranchwest · 07-30-2022, 08:24 PM

Normally, my best races are 6f dirt non-maiden non-stakes. Not nearly as many of those at Saratoga as most tracks. And, on the turf, closing is tough, unlike most tracks.

There are a few pickable longshots, but horizontals are tough. I did like the 3rd race today, 14/1 went gate to wire and figured to be the early leader.

FRMNBRI · 08-01-2022, 03:29 AM

dont have much to report on today the spa. Lost my pick 4 win the

Rice trained horse won with ortiz in the irons. Pretty fun and dropped another G at the spa.

Del Mar has been good to me except today when i singled Bafferts horse that got beat my Victor for John Sheriffs. I loved that horse and with some much chatter on the tvg, podcast, sheets etc.. I singled Bob in second leg. Had a nice ticket too.