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10-19-2022, 02:49 PM
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#61
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2022
Posts: 322
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thxs Matt ..always appreciate your responses
Parx 9TH today
if you can toss the fav #6...
liking the 4 & 8
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10-19-2022, 04:06 PM
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#62
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwayJoe
thxs Matt ..always appreciate your responses
Parx 9TH today
if you can toss the fav #6...
liking the 4 & 8 |
LOL, funny as hell, no sooner do I mention not getting steamed, and it happens.......check out Delaware 7th. I had the 7 horse conditionally bet at 10-1, of course it wins at 12-1 and didnt trigger, usually means price went up after the gate opened
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10-19-2022, 04:11 PM
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#63
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwayJoe
thxs Matt ..always appreciate your responses
Parx 9TH today
if you can toss the fav #6...
liking the 4 & 8 |
Not bettable from a win standpoint....another ARC 7
 is top choice but need 16-1 to bet to win
 is second but need 19-1 to bet to win
for fun I will try this
1$ exacta /    and
1$ exacta /
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10-19-2022, 04:13 PM
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#64
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2022
Posts: 322
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhaney0423
LOL, funny as hell, no sooner do I mention not getting steamed, and it happens.......check out Delaware 7th. I had the 7 horse conditionally bet at 10-1, of course it wins at 12-1 and didnt trigger, usually means price went up after the gate opened
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LOL
How do you think I feel......I missed it
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X.JPG (50.8 KB, 30 views) |
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10-19-2022, 04:14 PM
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#65
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2022
Posts: 322
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhaney0423
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hope 8 wins
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10-19-2022, 04:17 PM
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#66
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwayJoe
LOL
How do you think I feel......I missed it
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Thats Delta Downs Mike not Delaware
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10-19-2022, 04:23 PM
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#67
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2022
Posts: 322
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhaney0423
Thats Delta Downs Mike not Delaware
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opps....
just looked....I had him 5th
but the #1 rank was the 5 ....with his declining numbers it was a race to look elsewhere
Sorry you missed it....
I'm sure there were times that "conditional bets " helped.....
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10-19-2022, 04:27 PM
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#68
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwayJoe
opps....
just looked....I had him 5th
but the #1 rank was the 5 ....with his declining numbers it was a race to look elsewhere
Sorry you missed it....
I'm sure there were times that "conditional bets " helped.....
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Not sure they helped, did get 7/2 and 3-1 winners that I had conditionally bet at 6-1 a lot of times, but since those are underlays, not sure how much it "helped" the bottom line.
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10-19-2022, 05:01 PM
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#69
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2022
Posts: 322
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwayJoe
thxs Matt ..always appreciate your responses
Parx 9TH today
if you can toss the fav #6...
liking the 4 & 8 |
The 4 wins at 4-1
This is how I get value .....
Poke a hole in the favorite and the others are under bet.....
Did VC have the 4 at 10-1 or worse....
Why would it be so high if a horse has a legit chance ???
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10-19-2022, 05:03 PM
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#70
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwayJoe
The 4 wins at 4-1
This is how I get value .....
Poke a hole in the favorite and the others are under bet.....
Did VC have the 4 at 10-1 or worse....
Why would it be so high if a horse has a legit chance ???
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50-1 below the arc at the very bottom
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10-19-2022, 05:45 PM
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#71
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2022
Posts: 322
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhaney0423
50-1 below the arc at the very bottom
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Damn....and I only got 4-1
I'll take it 
thx Matt enjoy your day
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10-26-2022, 02:02 PM
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#72
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 360
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Preach it brutha!
agree 1000%
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For the record- Mike P says exactly this too.....if the price scares you- it isn't for you.
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10-26-2022, 02:49 PM
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#73
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2022
Posts: 322
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hanger
For the record- Mike P says exactly this too.....if the price scares you- it isn't for you.
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That price should scare everybody unless you have a friend to show you what it does in detail....
even if you watch his rant videos ....how many winners does he get....???
Not that many....and he does pick alternative races too..so he is handicapping using the software...and still pulling blanks
For all others to just jump in without knowing what your getting is.......... insane
Last edited by BroadwayJoe; 10-26-2022 at 02:51 PM.
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10-26-2022, 02:51 PM
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#74
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,628
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwayJoe
That price should scare everybody unless you have a friend to show you what it does in detail....
even if you watch his rant videos ....how many winners does he get....???
Not that many....and he does pick alternative races too..so he is handicapping using the software...and still pulling blanks
For all others to just jump in without knowing what your getting is insane...
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if his software were junk, you'd have heard about it by now...it's been around forever
Pricey, yes...we've heard that a lot...junk? Don't recall many people claiming that.
Maybe you can find another windmill
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10-26-2022, 03:02 PM
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#75
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwayJoe
That price should scare everybody unless you have a friend to show you what it does in detail....
even if you watch his rant videos ....how many winners does he get....???
Not that many....and he does pick alternative races too..so he is handicapping using the software...and still pulling blanks
For all others to just jump in without knowing what your getting is.......... insane
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Mike,
You are forgetting he posts those rant videos on like a Wed or a Thurs before a big Saturday race. He has no clue what the weather or the scratches will do to the race. In most cases, with big Stakes races there just isn't that many obvious value opportunities. He is also only posting at most like the Derby and maybe 3 or 4 alternative races....my hit rate with Valuecapper win bets fluctuates between about 9-13% give or take a point.....so I'm generally gonna have to give you 10 races before you see a winner. Maybe MP is much better than me but I would almost guarantee he's not hitting too much higher rate picking horses out of a race 3 days prior with only half of the relevant info to go on.
Where VC shines is while you are watching the board, opportunities present themselves all the time, often when we least expect them. I bet races all the time watching the board that I wouldn't have looked at for more than about 2 seconds three days prior to the race.
We've been through this before and I even went so far as to show you what could be done, and even then I was posting all my picks at like 11am EST without scratches.
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