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Old 10-02-2022, 03:23 PM   #4471
Rex Phinney
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I really doubt we are going to get some dreadful single day doomsday. I think a slow downward slide is the likely scenario.

As a long term investor I think it’s criminal to not be buying right here. I’m not going all in, but my shopping list was ready months ago and I’m building up positions

One thing that should be on peoples radar is Election Day. A shift in Washington (or the creation of a stalemate in congress) will change sentiment in the market. If that coincides with the Fed slowing rate hikes (the next Fed meeting will be Nov 2 before the election) then November is a potential stopping point for the market.

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Old 10-03-2022, 06:52 AM   #4472
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I really doubt we are going to get some dreadful single day doomsday. I think a slow downward slide is the likely scenario.

As a long term investor I think itís criminal to not be buying right here. Iím not going all in, but my shopping list was ready months ago and Iím building up positions

One thing that should be on people's radar is Election Day. A shift in Washington (or the creation of a stalemate in congress) will change sentiment in the market. If that coincides with the Fed slowing rate hikes (the next Fed meeting will be Nov 2 before the election) then November is a potential stopping point for the market.
i made a mistake on the 40 month moving average, we HIT IT ON FRIDAY.

your long-term investment strategy is going to turn out great if you like to burn up your and your family's assets.

at the very best case, i see no bounce in these equities until June of 2023. you have no better than a zero chance that your strategy makes any sense at all until maybe June, then we will take a look at things then. bear markets can be very nasty and fool the best of us.

just to be very repetitive, you have no good reason what so ever to place your assets on high risk at this stage of the game.
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Old 10-03-2022, 11:35 AM   #4473
Rex Phinney
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i made a mistake on the 40 month moving average, we HIT IT ON FRIDAY.

your long-term investment strategy is going to turn out great if you like to burn up your and your family's assets.

at the very best case, i see no bounce in these equities until June of 2023. you have no better than a zero chance that your strategy makes any sense at all until maybe June, then we will take a look at things then. bear markets can be very nasty and fool the best of us.

just to be very repetitive, you have no good reason what so ever to place your assets on high risk at this stage of the game.

So your strategy is to time the market. Got it.
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Old 10-03-2022, 01:33 PM   #4474
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So your strategy is to time the market. Got it.
nobody can time it ......


with whats happening this year ....


I'd like to a few new highs...not new lows

with a day like today...will tomorrow bomb like it has been?



Last edited by BroadwayJoe; 10-03-2022 at 01:35 PM.
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Old 10-03-2022, 01:49 PM   #4475
Rex Phinney
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nobody can time it ......


with whats happening this year ....


I'd like to a few new highs...not new lows

with a day like today...will tomorrow bomb like it has been?



My post about timing the market was sarcastic, totally agree that noone can time the market.



Also it doesn't take market timing to know you are getting 25% off the all time high right now.



I'm lining up a buy on some more bond funds tomorrow, the "buy low" opportunity on those is real.


BHK
NAD
NBB
PTY
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Old 10-03-2022, 02:04 PM   #4476
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My post about timing the market was sarcastic, totally agree that noone can time the market.



Also it doesn't take market timing to know you are getting 25% off the all time high right now.



I'm lining up a buy on some more bond funds tomorrow, the "buy low" opportunity on those is real.


BHK
NAD
NBB
PTY
not that I know much....

I did buy a bond eft back in 6/21

It absloutely sucked ...I thought with the Fed hikes that I would start reaping some rewards...

Well...its not .....

2 things I would never buy again ....

bonds and emerging markets

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Old 10-03-2022, 02:31 PM   #4477
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not that I know much....

I did buy a bond eft back in 6/21

It absloutely sucked ...I thought with the Fed hikes that I would start reaping some rewards...

Well...its not .....

2 things I would never buy again ....

bonds and emerging markets

You've got to let the higher interest rate bonds find their way into the market. Right now the funds are packed with lower % rate bonds to collect on (that is why the share prices of the funds are tanking)


BUT


Eventually these funds will turn over their holdings to include the higher % rate bonds that will come to market over the next few years.


THEN


Eventually the Fed will stop raising rates. At that point all new bonds will be less desirable than pre-existing ones. Only at this point will the fund price recover.


This process could (and probably will) take years to fully run it's course. But buying now ensures that on YOUR investment you will always have an awesome yield. BHK for example is an investment grade corporate bond fund, If you bought shares one year ago your shares would yield 5.27%. Buying the same shares at today's prices yields 8.95%. So you get oaid 8.95% to do exactly nothing. And if you're willing to hold the shares long enough there is a potential to see your $10 shares turn into $17 shares.
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Old 10-03-2022, 02:41 PM   #4478
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Sound advice Rex...

And I should buy more now .......at same price as inception...

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Old 10-03-2022, 03:49 PM   #4479
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Sound advice Rex...

And I should buy more now .......at same price as inception...

I like my bond funds to be at least 20 years old. I like to see how they have performed through various market crises.


I also got to have more yield than what that ETF is paying. NAD is an all Muni bond fund that is packed full of the best bonds money can buy and it is paying 5.8% right now (with no federal tax on the $$$). That is the lowest yielding fund I'm buying right now.


If you decide to live dangerously and you want to step into the higher risk bond world try out PTY. It pays over 12% right here. Yes 12%. It is run by the PIMCO group, about as good as fund managers get. Historical average share price (over 20 years) is $16.50 to $17. Buy it today for $12.


Keep in mind if you are getting the yield % you want then all you need from the fund share price is to stay consistent.
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Old 10-03-2022, 07:29 PM   #4480
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I like my bond funds to be at least 20 years old. I like to see how they have performed through various market crises.


I also got to have more yield than what that ETF is paying. NAD is an all Muni bond fund that is packed full of the best bonds money can buy and it is paying 5.8% right now (with no federal tax on the $$$). That is the lowest yielding fund I'm buying right now.


If you decide to live dangerously and you want to step into the higher risk bond world try out PTY. It pays over 12% right here. Yes 12%. It is run by the PIMCO group, about as good as fund managers get. Historical average share price (over 20 years) is $16.50 to $17. Buy it today for $12.


Keep in mind if you are getting the yield % you want then all you need from the fund share price is to stay consistent.
thank you
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Old 10-07-2022, 07:43 AM   #4481
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Here's the catalyst for todays Market....

Lets see at 8:30...

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Old 10-07-2022, 08:24 AM   #4482
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It will be interesting to see how this unfolds. The previous two sell signals were not followed by a buy signal until 29 months later (on average).

Before someone jumps my shit for posting...I know you can buy back in the market before the new buy signal. This is Long Term.

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Old 10-07-2022, 09:31 AM   #4483
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It will be interesting to see how this unfolds. The previous two sell signals were not followed by a buy signal until 29 months later (on average).

Before someone jumps my shit for posting...I know you can buy back in the market before the new buy signal. This is Long Term.
hey brother, i'm not jumping your ship. i just want to stress one point, you have the average number at 29 months, the market can go down for much longer than 29 months, and likely will this time around. i am not counting the ridiculous 300 up points in a row just recently as nothing more than a small bounce sucking people in and getting them trapped in for their money.
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Old 10-09-2022, 01:26 AM   #4484
Rex Phinney
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hey brother, i'm not jumping your ship. i just want to stress one point, you have the average number at 29 months, the market can go down for much longer than 29 months, and likely will this time around. i am not counting the ridiculous 300 up points in a row just recently as nothing more than a small bounce sucking people in and getting them trapped in for their money.
How much do you want to bet on the market not going down for 29 straight months?

There is no way that is happening. Point blank, no grey area.

Far more likely is that people sit around waiting for things to get cheaper and miss a significant part of the upside once things bottom.
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Old 10-10-2022, 01:02 PM   #4485
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ZeroHedge | Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog | Monday, Oct 10, 2022 - 04:20 AM
What Lurks Below The Surface Is A Reason For Concern:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wh...reason-concern

Quote:
In the first minute of a just-released video about the economy, Jeremy Grantham carves away the illusion the underpinnings of this market are strong.

https://youtu.be/h07nuoflQMU

I thought the video was very much worth watching whether or not you agree with Grantham that markets for major asset classes are vastly overinflated.



-jp

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