What Makes a Good Handicapping Show?

[Dave Schwartz]

In the thread below...

So all of a sudden Serling is a great guy on TV

DylanESP said...

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Of all people, I have to be the one to say this, but since when has Serling EVER been bad on racing telecasts? He's one of the best personalities and handicappers in that business and has been for years.

which made me think...

WHAT MAKES A GOOD HANDICAPPING SHOW?

Is it the quality of the picks?

The explanations of why?

Pace analysis?

[AskinHaskin]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

WHAT MAKES A GOOD HANDICAPPING SHOW?

When the people putting on the show are more astute than the audience.


(anything else is overthinking the obvious )

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by AskinHaskin

When the people putting on the show are more astute than the audience.


(anything else is overthinking the obvious )

Damn. Sounds pretty arrogant.

Lot of sharp people out there that just want to listen and hear other opinions and folks talking intelligently about horse racing.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Damn. Sounds pretty arrogant.

Lot of sharp people out there that just want to listen and hear other opinions and folks talking intelligently about horse racing.

But what do you want to hear?

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

But what do you want to hear?

Breakdowns of races. Pace, class, jockey, trainer, intent. You know, like intelligent handicappers do on a day in and day out basis.

You have a 10 horse field. Don't simply talk about the 2 or 3 favorites, give each an honest opinion and review.

[davew]

I like when they show replays of horses that had 'excuses' on previous race(s) giving a good reason why they could be overlays today.

[classhandicapper]

What I want:

1. Interviews with trainers to talk about how a horse has been doing, if there was an excuse for a recent subpar performance, what the race strategy might be, long term plans, equipment issues etc...

2. Interviews with jockeys to talk about race strategy, a recent ride, how the track is playing, or a horse's peculiarities that are part of his thinking.

3. An occasional interview with a member of the maintenance crew to talk about how the track is playing if a potential bias is being observed.

4. Expert paddock analysis and a good visual of each horse.

5. Ex jockey analysis of replays.

What I don't need.

1. Handicapper insights

2. Handicapper betting strategies

Most of the time it's the same kind of group think I'm trying to avoid. I guess there's some value in knowing what other handicappers are thinking so you can consider going in another direction if they are all thinking the same things.

[dlivery]

Clear understanding of the race conditions.

[pandy]

There are several good analysts on TV and other streams. I like Vic Stauffer's way of analyzing a race, which you can watch during the Oaklawn meet. Some people overwhelm the listener with too much info.

But the on-track presentations can be enlightening because of their access to trainers. For example, years ago I had a Best Bet at Hollywood Park that was a first time starter, a 2yo filly. I liked the way she had been working but she was trained by Ron McAnally, who had on something like an 0 for 60 streak with first time starters.

But I had given her out and bet her anyway because she was 22-1 in a six horse field. A few minutes before the race on TVG, one of the on air talent (can't remember who) was in the stands and he asked McAnally what he thought of his filly.

McAnally said, "I'm not known for winning with first time starters, I haven't won with one in a long time, but let me tell you, this filly finishes strong in her workouts, she can flat out run."

I wish I could remember the fillies name, but right after he said that, I logged into my account and tripled all of my wagers. The filly sat last in a 4.5 furlong 2yo maiden race and blew by the field in the stretch, paid $46 to win. I hit the exacta and trifecta and the win bet and won several thousand dollars.

That was certainly priceless information and turned out to be one of my three or four biggest hits that year.

[usfgeology]

Originally Posted by dlivery

Clear understanding of the race conditions.

I second this.

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by pandy

There are several good analysts on TV and other streams. I like Vic Stauffer's way of analyzing a race, which you can watch during the Oaklawn meet. Some people overwhelm the listener with too much info.

I second that but don't forget his co-host, Nancy Holthus they do an excellent job with the show they put on each and every day plus also the live observations from Nancy in the paddock and comments on the track with Vic is second to none

I'm a little biased since I do cover Oaklawn myself but nothing beats 2 good handicappers/analysts like Vic and Nancy!

Some day I would like to meet them in person plus witness the beauty of Oaklawn Park itself maybe grab a few tipsheets too while I am there and a Corned Beef Sandwich if they are not both sold out

[usfgeology]

Originally Posted by pandy

There are several good analysts on TV and other streams. I like Vic Stauffer's way of analyzing a race, which you can watch during the Oaklawn meet. Some people overwhelm the listener with too much info.

But the on-track presentations can be enlightening because of their access to trainers. For example, years ago I had a Best Bet at Hollywood Park that was a first time starter, a 2yo filly. I liked the way she had been working but she was trained by Ron McAnally, who had on something like an 0 for 60 streak with first time starters.

But I had given her out and bet her anyway because she was 22-1 in a six horse field. A few minutes before the race on TVG, one of the on air talent (can't remember who) was in the stands and he asked McAnally what he thought of his filly.

McAnally said, "I'm not known for winning with first time starters, I haven't won with one in a long time, but let me tell you, this filly finishes strong in her workouts, she can flat out run."

I wish I could remember the fillies name, but right after he said that, I logged into my account and tripled all of my wagers. The filly sat last in a 4.5 furlong 2yo maiden race and blew by the field in the stretch, paid $46 to win. I hit the exacta and trifecta and the win bet and won several thousand dollars.

That was certainly priceless information and turned out to be one of my three or four biggest hits that year.

On this same note, and even more “inside baseball” to me is owner bias and trends. Partly because access to owner stats seem to be esoteric knowledge because there aren’t a lot of accessible public stats on owner performance. In a similar anecdote that I vaguely recall, an on-air analyst at the Spa this summer, noted how one prominent owner always snuck over to the winners circle in advance of having a live horse in the race. Looked bad on paper and won for fun. I didn’t crush like Pandy but it’s something I’m very aware of but need “inside insight” to take advantage of.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

What I want:

1. Interviews with trainers to talk about how a horse has been doing, if there was an excuse for a recent subpar performance, what the race strategy might be, long term plans, equipment issues etc...

2. Interviews with jockeys to talk about race strategy, a recent ride, how the track is playing, or a horse's peculiarities that are part of his thinking.

3. An occasional interview with a member of the maintenance crew to talk about how the track is playing if a potential bias is being observed.

4. Expert paddock analysis and a good visual of each horse.

5. Ex jockey analysis of replays.

What I don't need.

1. Handicapper insights

2. Handicapper betting strategies

Most of the time it's the same kind of group think I'm trying to avoid. I guess there's some value in knowing what other handicappers are thinking so you can consider going in another direction if they are all thinking the same things.

I can't stop laughing.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by the little guy

I can't stop laughing.

At yourself?

The truth is the truth.

To gain a reasonable edge these days, you have to try to identify areas of group think among "knowledgeable handicappers" that are overused or nuanced enough to create occasional misunderstandings. You don't want to listen to what others say and do the same kinds of things where there is no value or there is a misunderstanding.

It's a different game now. We are competing with math wizzes and database players, not players that learned from books and trial and error (which inevitably includes loads of things that are wrong). The best players now can write queries against their databases to find the right answer to any handicapping question, they can create and test metrics that are not available publicly etc..

You have to know where the conventional wisdom among other experienced handicappers is wrong or overused. You sure as hell don't want to go down the same path everyone else is on.

But back to original question, the show has to remain entertaining and informative. So going to people and places where the typical horseplayers doesn't have access seems like a good idea and keeps me entertained.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

What I want:

1. Interviews with trainers to talk about how a horse has been doing, if there was an excuse for a recent subpar performance, what the race strategy might be, long term plans, equipment issues etc...

2. Interviews with jockeys to talk about race strategy, a recent ride, how the track is playing, or a horse's peculiarities that are part of his thinking.

3. An occasional interview with a member of the maintenance crew to talk about how the track is playing if a potential bias is being observed.

4. Expert paddock analysis and a good visual of each horse.

5. Ex jockey analysis of replays.

What I don't need.

1. Handicapper insights

2. Handicapper betting strategies

Most of the time it's the same kind of group think I'm trying to avoid. I guess there's some value in knowing what other handicappers are thinking so you can consider going in another direction if they are all thinking the same things.

1) How many trainers do you want to see interviewed? Is there time for this? There must be at least 50 different trainers on any given day - the logistics of this are virtually impossible (they have to agree to be interviewed, and what trainer or jock is going to announce their strategy on TV?...good luck getting Chad Brown on camera these days).

2) see the response to #1

3) I can see how the track is playing by watching the races carefully

4) Maggie Wolfendale !

5) Richard Migliore !