Mohawk's Crazy 6 Hole

[Ray2000]

Mohawk results for Thursday May 26th got me looking deeper at Post 6.

Date   Race  MoLine  Winner  Win Pd     6 Paid    Horse
26-May    1     5-1     5    5.90     -        POST 6 ML 5-1 FRENCH PERFUME Trainer . Luc Blais (38-5-6-4-.254)
26-May    3    10-1     5    2.90      -       POST 6 ML 10-1 STORMONT MABELFL Trainer . Desiree Jones (52-5-9-3-.211)
26-May    4    10-1     6    29.80    29.80    POST 6 ML 10-1 DENMARK SEELSTER L Trainer . Joshua McKibbin (83-18-19-11-.388)
26-May    5     8-1     6    14.00    14.00    POST 6 ML 8-1 HOWIES MAN Trainer . Richard Moreau (567-94-88-79-.298)
26-May    6     5-1     6    19.60    19.60    POST 6 ML 5-1 MUSCULUS MASSAF L Trainer . Ted Macdonnell (46-4-12-5-.268)
26-May    7     7-2     6    4.50     4.50     POST 6 ML 7-2 LEXUS RANGERF Trainer . Paul Macdonell (24-7-4-5-.453)
26-May    8     5-2     6    3.60     3.60     POST 6 ML 5-2 HIGH FLYIN JAMIE L Trainer . Richard Moreau (567-94-88-79-.298)
26-May    9     7-2     6    12.90    12.90    POST 6 ML 7-2 WESTFIFTYSECOND Trainer . Darcy Clancy (22-1-1-1-.85)
26-May    10    15-1    8    5.00              POST 6 ML 15-1 CASEYS DRAGON Trainer . Kyle Bossence (137-20-19-24-.281)

So I did a sample of 707 races this year to see what kind of return would you get by betting the 6 in every race.

Overall
Races    Wins    Win%     ROI
707    161    22.8    1.13    
Official number for combined Pace and Trot 
836    191    22.8    -

Break down by Morning Line of Post 6
Fave 4/5 - 3/1
Races    Wins    Win%     ROI
121    62    51.2%    1.29

Range 7/2 - 6/1
Races    Wins    Win%     ROI
313    76    24.3%    1.17

Range 8/1 - 15/1
Races    Wins    Win%     ROI
273    23    8%    1.00

Looks like if the Morning Line on the 6 is less than 7/1. . . Bet'm

[Bogo]

That's just crazy Ray. Thanks for sharing. Trackmaster has a number next to the post. For example, Meadowland's 6 hole has 48 for Win Index and a 20 for ROI Index. But I don't really know what those numbers mean. Anybody know?

[Ray2000]

Thx Bogo


BTW, Post 6 did very nicely this weekend.

Friday            
Race2    6    $5.10    
Race3    6    $2.90    
Race9    6    $11.70    
Race10   6    $3.50    
               $23.20
            
Saturday            
Race5    6    $30.80    
Race6    6    $13.90    
               $34.70

$2 'Win the 6' in all 21 races returns $57.90





Trackmaster use a "Better or Worse than Expected" percentage for post bias.
They calculate what number of races should this post have won this year(?) adjusted for Field size, and if there was no post bias. Then the actual number of wins is shown as a percentage. So 10 means this post is winnng 10% more than expected.

I don't have any ROI numbers for the posts in the free programs but it must be something similar.

[ucancallmemrlucky]

Originally Posted by Ray2000

Thx Bogo


BTW, Post 6 did very nicely this weekend.

Friday            
Race2    6    $5.10    
Race3    6    $2.90    
Race9    6    $11.70    
Race10   6    $3.50    
               $23.20
            
Saturday            
Race5    6    $30.80    
Race6    6    $13.90    
               $34.70

$2 'Win the 6' in all 21 races returns $57.90







Trackmaster use a "Better or Worse than Expected" percentage for post bias.
They calculate what number of races should this post have won this year(?) adjusted for Field size, and if there was no post bias. Then the actual number of wins is shown as a percentage. So 10 means this post is winnng 10% more than expected.

I don't have any ROI numbers for the posts in the free programs but it must be something similar.