18/1 in the gate 7/1 in the winners circle.

[o_crunk]

There are a couple of unclear or straight up missing pieces in the article for any of the conjecture to make sense.

First...

"these bets were made through Elite Turf Club". OK, well they have something like 20 hub codes. Was this all bets from one ETC hub code? Or was this all of them under the umbrella of ETC?

Second...

The timestamps are all of 40 seconds. Did ETC make losing win bets during the same time frame? We are only given the win wagers that won.

So those are two really key areas where we are being shown something only partially.

Now for my opinion.

I'd guess, based on what's in the article, that Paulick got the cash room shift at SA from CHRB. They would have all the ETC hub codes under the umbrella as host of the relationship, I'd guess. I'd also guess this because we are only shown the wagers known to win, which would probably be the limit of these kinds of data reports. Hell, just give us the ETC shift for the whole race in question instead of 40 seconds of winning bets from one pool in the race.

If we were given the whole picture, I'd guess you'd find ETC had some win money on all the horses at varying levels bet at various times throughout the betting. Which is not a news flash or breaking news.

As far as the cycling frequency, it's a fair question. My personal theory is that their "live" odds line is summing the total known money in all pools on each horse in the race and imputing that as the true live odds against their value lines, which are obviously better than the non-ETC public *across all pools*. Now with that level of computing and cycles across the ex/dbl/maybe tri and the will pays of other horizontals, you might have 10 ETC hub codes spitting out all sorts of bets based on those calculations at various times.

The rebates are the whole issue for me. Kind of a shame articles like this continue to be written and all sorts of insinuations are drawn. From one point of view, I understand that "racing" want to project this image of passive, recreational gambling fun. This is basically what the marketing of it is. But there is a niche area where if you give people a path to be a CRW, they might become one. Some of those types are the people that post in this thread. What is racing doing to develop those avenues?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by o_crunk

But there is a niche area where if you give people a path to be a CRW, they might become one. Some of those types are the people that post in this thread. What is racing doing to develop those avenues?

I like it. Think there is some room for growth there.



also for the majority of the odds-swings, some players may like a Multi-race odds projection

Twitter

__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

[The_Turf_Monster]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I like it. Think there is some room for growth there.



also for the majority of the odds-swings, some players may like a Multi-race odds projection
https://twitter.com/jason_kassa/stat...33555438247938

lol I think they’re successful because they don’t need subject matter consultants

As for the subject matter of this thread, there’s no action that can prevent this that won’t have an equal and opposite action

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by The_Turf_Monster

lol I think they’re successful because they don’t need subject matter consultants.

No, the Weekend Warrior 'normie' player. Us. The guys in this thread who complain about an 18/1 shot who pays 7/1.

a multi-race projected odds provided to these players would generally eliminate these complaints/perception






- Or if you mean the CAW Whales? - Yea, those guys have good info and rebates.

[dilanesp]

Here we go again.

https://mobile.twitter.com/grayposse...97388561559552

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Here we go again.

https://mobile.twitter.com/grayposse...97388561559552

(30 to 1 on the morning line BTW. Draw your own conclusion.)

[davew]

the 6 and the 1 both went up in odds getting 1st and 3rd sandwiching the odds dropper 4

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Here we go again.

https://mobile.twitter.com/grayposse...97388561559552

My perspective on this....

My system had the 4 as a possible value play

So the horse getting bet was not going to be unusual

I'm not sure but all those bets could have come from the new barn

this horse was in.....maybe all the shenanigan's was because of this

fairly new trainer that got this horse...

mike

PS- If you don't like these drastic odd changes ..BET NEW YORK!!

[Bustin Stones]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

(30 to 1 on the morning line BTW. Draw your own conclusion.)

and since when is the morning line guy the final official word on any entrant's chances?

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

and since when is the morning line guy the final official word on any entrant's chances?

Well.....if you look at his last few races the 30-1 isn't that far fetched...

More like 12-15 to 1 could have been more suitable

But what he did miss is that horse has speed and was a big miss for ML Maker

Mike

[classhandicapper]

Late odds drops are a gambling problem. The thing that causes perception problems is when the horse is on the lead.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

and since when is the morning line guy the final official word on any entrant's chances?

yea. This was a relatively complicated one as well

the ml was very 'bad'
(either outright bad, or bad compared to inside-info of bettors).

The horse was something like 3rd or 4th choice based on the multis.
(meaning the comparison for the final 7/2 is more around 6/1 or so for this race, not 30/1 nor 12/1.)
This is the biggest point.
Anything that ignores the multis is either being intentionally disingenuous, or accidentally ignorant.

Was also race 5 and fifth leg of the pick-5.
meaning significant payouts and pools were done 'blind' by the insiders as well as eliminated by many non-insider players.
This creates both a momentum thing, and a hedging situation.

As far as yet another layer - there is the added bad perception anytime a horse takes this late money on the lead, or when a chalk has gate/break trouble.
I only glanced at the pools following the twitter stuff, so I haven't verified that this horse was in fact a projected early pace setter/factor, but that seems to be the case based on reading some of the posts and tweets. (perception is even worse when a horse is projected to come from off the pace, and unpredictably gains an early advantage. This runner seemed to be projected forward, perhaps on the lead).

So a lot going on at once. Looks ugly-but-legit to me at a glance.

[lamboguy]

what little i know is that you are born alone and then you die alone. in the interim, there are plenty of rules placed on you and crazy things that happen in this world.

when i see a horse enter the starting gate with $15,000 bet on him to win and the horse winds up breaking bad and finishes the race with $12,000 bet on him to win, i put that one in the field of crazy things that happen during ones life.

[AskinHaskin]

Originally Posted by o_crunk

But there is a niche area where if you give people a path to be a CRW, they might become one. Some of those types are the people that post in this thread. What is racing doing to develop those avenues?

ROFL

Why would racing want to develop those avenues ???


The only appropriate action would be to address them from the other side... and then all of this simply goes away.

When you put the public on the hot horses from the outset, then noteworthy* late odds changes will nearly all disappear.


(*** When a 25-to-1 shot stumbles out of the gate and then leaps to 30-1 at the 3/8th's pole - that doesn't count as noteworthy )

[dilanesp]

This isn't bad.

https://paulickreport.com/news/ray-s...be-suspicious/