Bad gate breaks , are they really that bad ?

[westernmassbob]

Yesterday at Belmont I watched two races where the winning horses had bad gate breaks. Handicapping off of bad gate breaks has been very rewarding to me the last several years. Depending on the horses finish they have a super high chance of winning next time out. In the case of those two Belmont horses yesterday I will be all over them next time they race. As for bad gate breaks themselves I think bettors automatically think they will lose every time but I think some sort of strategy exists with jockeys and most seem to always run a decent race.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by westernmassbob

Yesterday at Belmont I watched two races where the winning horses had bad gate breaks. Handicapping off of bad gate breaks has been very rewarding to me the last several years. Depending on the horses finish they have a super high chance of winning next time out. In the case of those two Belmont horses yesterday I will be all over them next time they race. As for bad gate breaks themselves I think bettors automatically think they will lose every time but I think some sort of strategy exists with jockeys and most seem to always run a decent race.

A bad break in a race means absolutely nothing in how the horse is going to run in its next race. You simply toss that race and handicap like it didn't exist for the most part.

[Robert Fischer]

• was it traumatic? - a fractious, significant enough of an event that it 'fried' the horse before the race?
• was it beneficial? - relatively mild, but happened to protect the horse at the start from a heated collapsing pace?
• was it harmful? - relatively mild (or Traumatic /above), and happened to take a horse out of favorable running style?
• was it an 'I don't know'? - i don't know how this bad gate break happened to affect this trip?

Then you look at the past races as if you are skipping the last race, you look today's pace projection, today's price (is the trouble itself being bet, can you separate todays hot/neutral/cold price from the trouble?), you buy a slice of pizza, sprinkle a small amount of hot pepper flakes or Tabasco sauce

[elhelmete]

If they had a 'bad' break AND still won, I doubt they'd be underbet next time out because of the break (all else being equal).

[classhandicapper]

I don't think there's much betting value if the horse that was off poorly draws a comment in the PPs. But if the chart caller missed it or the horse got squeezed just after the start and there's no comment you can sometimes excuse a subpar performance that not everyone will pick up on. If you have a few hours of spare time, watch a lot of head on replays.

[burnsy]

It’s one of the reasons I don’t like the baby races. Saratoga opens in two weeks and as sure as shit the first day the 2 yo run there will be one race with a circus behind the gate…… it will take minutes and half the horses are spooked. When it finally opens a joke

[MJC922]

When viewed in the context of certain pace flows combined with running styles a bad break of say two lengths slow can range from costing a horse all chance to possibly even being a net benefit IMO. That's the whole reason why trip handicapping is so effective in the right hands because you can't just say when you see this happen it means that. Same thing goes for ground loss and everything else, it's a very very rich and complex area of study.

[westernmassbob]

Originally Posted by MJC922

When viewed in the context of certain pace flows combined with running styles a bad break of say two lengths slow can range from costing a horse all chance to possibly even being a net benefit IMO. That's the whole reason why trip handicapping is so effective in the right hands because you can't just say when you see this happen it means that. Same thing goes for ground loss and everything else, it's a very very rich and complex area of study.

Not much to study because the final time speaks volumes of a horses performance in these poor gate break instances. Case in point look at the #4 horse at Belmont Friday July 1 race 3. Gentle Annie broke poorly (conceded about 5-6 lengths) but the pace of the race was average yet she won with an above average time for that distance.

[davew]

Originally Posted by zico20

A bad break in a race means absolutely nothing in how the horse is going to run in its next race. You simply toss that race and handicap like it didn't exist for the most part.

it might give them a better chance of being an overlay next time out

[mountainman]

I used to dismiss most poor breaks as random, but have completely overhauled that thinking.

Poor breaks almost always stem from gate phobias and quirks that have been, or will be, repeated. And whereas some players mention value in ignoring a "first offense," I prefer to keep in mind that poor breaks can become chronic.

And I try to not accept the break call verbatim. Chart-callers claim, and most players believe, that the call is somehow made from the jump. In fact, though, it's made WELL into the race, giving horses time to recover from (and camouflage) a slow opening jump, or two.

Nor do I classify all breaks as either poor or "acceptable." In particular, when horses change distances, general patterns discerned from the break calls can be predictive. Horses that routinely come away mid-pack for instance, at 6 furlongs, can be COUNTED ON to compromise themselves at the break when competing in shorter sprints against presumably quicker horses. Break calls should be interpreted as a function of distance.

I think also that many players suffer from the misconception that "tight quarters" along the rail pose issues for poor breakers drawing the 1-post, when in fact, the inside is the ROOMIEST part of the track for the first 150 yards, or so. Notice how many slow starters manage to rush up the rail and get the lead, as opposed to the many that lack room between rivals and don't get a chance to accelerate early.

As I've stated numerous times on the air, I think the break is the least understood and most under-utilized point of call in thoroughbred handicapping.

[Tom]

Sharp post.
Why do suppose a horse will break worse when going shorter? What is it about a distance change that influences the break?

[MJC922]

I agree with the chart callers, i.e. the break is the break. What many aren't aware of however is on the standard say 1M route PP line the break is not shown in the PPs, the number adjacent to the post position on a route PP line is the first quarter position (yes position, without lengths). In the result chart for the race the route break IS shown just as it is in sprints. I am talking traditional DRF PPlines, with my own stuff I do include the break on my PP lines even in routes. Maybe DRF gives you the route break now, not sure, I haven't seen a DRF in years tbh.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Tom

Sharp post.
Why do suppose a horse will break worse when going shorter? What is it about a distance change that influences the break?

I think it's a matter of distinguishing between speed and quickness. The sort of horses that pound out a living at, say, 5 furlongs, or even 5 1/2 simply possess a faster burst for the first 100 yards, or so-the break call included.

That's the reason that 6 furlong speeds competing in shorter sprints-however fast their initial (and adjusted) fractions-so often suck back at the start of 5 or 5 1/2 furlong races. They are not intrinsically slower to the finish line, or even the first call of a shorter race, but lacking the element of quickness so critical to success at the reduced distances, usually are poor bets. I think this applies to pressers and closers, as well, in that they lack the initial burst of short-sprint counterparts that utilize similar running styles.

To me, all this supports the broader point that the difference between sprint distances is not yardage, but instead field composition, relative quickness, and legitimacy of finishing kick.

These are merely my opinions, Tom, and tx for responding.

Hope your holiday is enjoyable.

[camourous]

Bad breaks are the result of people holding the horses heads in the gate, a position that is not necessary but is unionized, and crooked jockeys who know by grabbing the horses mouth can create a awful break, it's a perfect storm for the criminals who run that game

[airford1]

Originally Posted by camourous

Bad breaks are the result of people holding the horses heads in the gate, a position that is not necessary but is unionized, and crooked jockeys who know by grabbing the horses mouth can create a awful break, it's a perfect storm for the criminals who run that game

Ya, I'm goin to watch for that now. What about holding on to the tail? Cheatin SOB's