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04-17-2019, 03:59 PM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coachv30
RACE 1
$20 ($44.00)
$15
$25
$20
RACE 2
$25 ($70.00)
$25
$12
$10
$8
RACE 3
$30 ($55.50)
$20
$15
$15
RACE 4
$20
$30
$10
$20
RACE 5
$25
$20 ($49.00)
$15
$10
$10
RACE 6
$30
$20
$20 ($50.00)
$10
RACE 7- NO BET
RACE 8- NO BET
RACE 9
$25 ($125.00)
$20
$12
$15
$8
RACE 10
$35 ($96.25)
$15
$20
$10
RACE 11
$30
$20
$10
$20
RACE 12
$50 ($60.00)
$10
$8
$12
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TOTAL WAGERED- $800
TOTAL RETURNED- $549.75
TOTAL ROI- .69
__________________
A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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04-18-2019, 06:48 PM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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OK...Going to MOHAWK with a goal of $40 per race off of the ML odds.
My current bankroll is $550. Time to get it back up.
RACE 1
$10
$5
$4
$9
RACE 2
$8
$13
$4
$5
RACE 3
$11
$12
$5
$3
RACE 4
$11
$10
$8
$10
RACE 5
$$4
$5
$7
$4
RACE 6
$8
$4
$12
$4
RACE 7
$5
$11
$10
$4
RACE 8
$12
$10
$8
$4
RACE 9
$7
$10
$4
$4
RACE 10
$10
$5
$11
$7
WAGERED- $298
CURRENT BANKROLL- $252
__________________
A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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04-18-2019, 10:23 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coachv30
OK...Going to MOHAWK with a goal of $40 per race off of the ML odds.
My current bankroll is $550. Time to get it back up.
RACE 1
$10 ($29.00)
$5
$4
$9
RACE 2
$8
$13 ($65.65)
$4
$5
RACE 3
$11
$12
$5 ($153.75)
$3
RACE 4
$11
$10 ($31.00)
$8
$10
RACE 5
$$4 ($18.60)
$5
$7
$4
RACE 6
$8
$4
$12 ($47.40)
$4
RACE 7
$5
$11 ($18.15)
$10
$4
RACE 8
$12
$10 ($31.50)
$8
$4
RACE 9
$7
$10
$4
$4
RACE 10
$10 ($18.50)
$5
$11
$7
WAGERED- $298
CURRENT BANKROLL- $252
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TOTAL WAGERED- $298
TOTAL RETURNED- $413.55
NEW BANKROLL- $665.55
__________________
A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
Last edited by coachv30; 04-18-2019 at 10:25 PM.
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04-19-2019, 03:15 AM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 8,273
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[QUOTE=coachv30;2453555]Man....I hit the winner in 13 of 14 races and still finish down. I'm thinking about doing one of the following for the next week:
/QUOTE]
Coach I suggest you use a dutching calculator for your bets to ensure a profit in each race assuming one of the horses you bet actually wins the race
Heres the link for a dutching calculator
https://www.ukhorseracing.co.uk/tool...Calculator.asp
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04-19-2019, 12:30 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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[quote=Sea Biscuit;2454289]
Quote:
Originally Posted by coachv30
Man....I hit the winner in 13 of 14 races and still finish down. I'm thinking about doing one of the following for the next week:
/QUOTE]
Coach I suggest you use a dutching calculator for your bets to ensure a profit in each race assuming one of the horses you bet actually wins the race
Heres the link for a dutching calculator
https://www.ukhorseracing.co.uk/tool...Calculator.asp
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Thanks SB....I tested it out and it seems as if I am betting the correct Dutching amounts. However, I am betting off of the ML odds and not the Post Time odds.
I'm hoping that the fluctuation from the public's influence leads to some winners paying more than my target.
For example, if my target is a $40 winner per race and a horse is ML 4-1, he is getting a $10 bet. I am actually hoping for that horse to go off at higher than 4-1 due to public betting.
In race 3 at MHK last night, the was ML 8-1. My wager was $5 to net the $40 return. He ended up going off at 30-1. If I was doing post time odds, I would have only had a little over $1 bet on him.
__________________
A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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04-19-2019, 01:13 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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4/19
MOHAWK 4/19
RACE 1
$10
$12
$7
$5
RACE 2
NO BET
RACE 3
$3
$8
$12
$4
RACE 4
$8
$8
$5
$12
RACE 5
$8
$10
$9
$4
RACE 6
$14
$5
$5
$4
RACE 7
$7
$5
$8
$8
RACE 8
$12
$10
$4
$4
RACE 9
$7
$12
$14
$5
RACE 10
$4
$7
$10
$5
RACE 11
$4
$4
$10
$5
STARTING BANKROLL- $665.55
TOTAL WAGERED- $296.00
REMAINING BANKROLL- $369.55
__________________
A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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04-19-2019, 02:17 PM
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#22
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coachv30
I'm gonna use a form of Dutching for a while at Pocono based off of the morning line odds. I will play 50% of the field in races with 7 or more runners.
My strategy is to wager an amount that will return at least $50 off of the morning line odds. Some races will have more than $50 wagered, so I'm hoping that the swing in odds from the public influence can lead to profit. I will track outcomes and post results.
Wagers will be returned on scratched horses. The % of change from my initial bankroll, will determine my winnings goal per race in the next card. For example, my starting bankroll is $1000. At the end of tonight if I am at $1500 (50% increase), then my goal next card will be to win $75 off of the ML odds.
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Coach let me offer some unsolicited comments.
Unless you have data to the contrary, a dutch play may be more successful using the win probabilities established as close to post time as possible.
I run those probabilities starting a 4 min to post.
I always convert the win probabilities to the true estimate that is (1/(odds+1)/booking %)
You say you play 50% of the field based on the number of horses in the race.
Try betting no more than 50% of the win pool probabilities.
I use the true estimated probabilities as my bet size, the $1 return is the same as $1 return on dutch play.
I do go a step further. I used the true estimated probabilities to make an exacta betting matrix. there is more to this if interested.
Good luck
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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04-19-2019, 03:03 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 8,273
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[quote=coachv30;2454431]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sea Biscuit
Thanks SB....I tested it out and it seems as if I am betting the correct Dutching amounts. However, I am betting off of the ML odds and not the Post Time odds.
I'm hoping that the fluctuation from the public's influence leads to some winners paying more than my target.
For example, if my target is a $40 winner per race and a horse is ML 4-1, he is getting a $10 bet. I am actually hoping for that horse to go off at higher than 4-1 due to public betting.
In race 3 at MHK last night, the was ML 8-1. My wager was $5 to net the $40 return. He ended up going off at 30-1. If I was doing post time odds, I would have only had a little over $1 bet on him.
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Good luck Coach. Betting 4 horses to win in a race is not my cuppa tea. Even before the gates have folded, you know you have lost 3 of the 4 bets.
I will be following this thread specifically the one with Mohawk horses with interest.
Once again my best to you.
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04-19-2019, 04:14 PM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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Thanks to both of you guys... I really don't have the time to follow live odds all of the time. I honestly like to handicap the race and choose my contenders and stick with plays on them.
__________________
A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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04-19-2019, 07:38 PM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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[quote=Sea Biscuit;2454483]
Quote:
Originally Posted by coachv30
Good luck Coach. Betting 4 horses to win in a race is not my cuppa tea. Even before the gates have folded, you know you have lost 3 of the 4 bets.
I will be following this thread specifically the one with Mohawk horses with interest.
Once again my best to you.
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I hear you with the multiple bets. I thought about that but then again if I can turn a profit, then I'm covering the losing bets. Besides, exotic plays with multiple combos have losing bets in there as well. For example a trifecta play of 2,3 / 2,3,4,6 / 2,3,4,5,6 is 18 different combos...only one can win while the other 17 lose.
__________________
A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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04-19-2019, 11:17 PM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coachv30
MOHAWK 4/19
RACE 1
$10
$12 ($27.60)
$7
$5
RACE 2
NO BET
RACE 3
$3
$8
$12
$4
RACE 4
$8
$8
$5
$12
RACE 5
$8
$10
$9
$4
RACE 6
$14
$5
$5 ($37.00)
$4
RACE 7
$7
$5
$8
$8
RACE 8
$12 ($20.40)
$10
$4
$4
RACE 9
$7 ($17.85)
$12
$14
$5
RACE 10
$4
$7
$10
$5
RACE 11
$4
$4
$10 ($27.00)
$5
STARTING BANKROLL- $665.55
TOTAL WAGERED- $296.00
REMAINING BANKROLL- $369.55
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TOUGH NIGHT!!
TOTAL RETURNED- $130.35
NEW BANKROLL- $499.90
__________________
A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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04-20-2019, 02:17 PM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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4/20
Tonight, I will not be putting WIN wagers on the projected favorites. Instead, I will use them on top of an EXACTA wheel box.
RACE 1
$7
$10
$4
2,9 / 3,4,8
RACE 2
$9
$4
$5
4,5 / 1,6,7
RACE 3
$10
$9
$4
1,5 / 2,6,8
RACE 4
$7
$3
$9
1,5 / 4,6,7
RACE 5
$8
$4
$7
5,7 / 2,4,6
RACE 6
$5
$10
$8
4,7 / 2,3,6
RACE 7
$4
$9
$5
4,6 / 1,2,7
RACE 8
$7
$10
$3
$4
4/1,2,3,9
RACE 9
$7
$8
$4
2,8 / 1,5,7
RACE 10
$4
$9
$4
1,8 / 4,6,7
RACE 11
$9
$10
$4
1,4 / 3,6,8
RACE 12
NO BET
RACE 13
$3
$10
$9
$7
4/1,2,7,8
RACE 14
$10
$7
$3
3,8 / 1,2,7
CURRENT BANKROLL- $500.00
TOTAL WAGERED- $437.00
REMAINING BANKROLL- $63.00
__________________
A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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04-20-2019, 03:12 PM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coachv30
Tonight, I will not be putting WIN wagers on the projected favorites. Instead, I will use them on top of an EXACTA wheel box.
RACE 1
$7
$10
$4
2,9 / 3,4,8
RACE 2
$9
$4
$5
4,5 / 1,6,7
RACE 3
$10
$9
$4
1,5 / 2,6,8
RACE 4
$7
$3
$9
1,5 / 4,6,7
RACE 5
$8
$4
$7
5,7 / 2,4,6
RACE 6
$5
$10
$8
4,7 / 2,3,6
RACE 7
$4
$9
$5
4,6 / 1,2,7
RACE 8
$7
$10
$3
$4
4/1,2,3,9
RACE 9
$7
$8
$4
2,8 / 1,5,7
RACE 10
$4
$9
$4
1,8 / 4,6,7
RACE 11
$9
$10
$4
1,4 / 3,6,8
RACE 12
NO BET
RACE 13
$3
$10
$9
$7
4/1,2,7,8
RACE 14
$10
$7
$3
3,8 / 1,2,7
CURRENT BANKROLL- $500.00
TOTAL WAGERED- $437.00
REMAINING BANKROLL- $63.00
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This is POCONO by the way.....
__________________
A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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04-20-2019, 11:25 PM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coachv30
Tonight, I will not be putting WIN wagers on the projected favorites. Instead, I will use them on top of an EXACTA wheel box.
RACE 1
$7
$10
$4
2,9 / 3,4,8- $4.20
RACE 2
$9
$4
$5
4,5 / 1,6,7- $6.10
RACE 3
$10
$9
$4
1,5 / 2,6,8- $53.60
RACE 4
$7
$3-
$9
1,5 / 4,6,7
RACE 5
$8
$4
$7
5,7 / 2,4,6
RACE 6
$5
$10
$8 ($66.40)
4,7 / 2,3,6
RACE 7
$4
$9
$5 ($163.00)
4,6 / 1,2,7
RACE 8
$7
$10
$3
$4
4/1,2,3,9
RACE 9
$7
$8
$4
2,8 / 1,5,7
RACE 10
$4
$9
$4
1,8 / 4,6,7
RACE 11
$9 ($41.40)
$10
$4
1,4 / 3,6,8
RACE 12
NO BET
RACE 13
$3
$10
$9
$7
4/1,2,7,8 ($10.50)
RACE 14
$10
$7
$3
3,8 / 1,2,7 ($8.00)
CURRENT BANKROLL- $500.00
TOTAL WAGERED- $437.00
REMAINING BANKROLL- $63.00
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TOTAL RETURNED- $353.20
NEW BANKROLL- $416.20
__________________
A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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04-22-2019, 06:26 PM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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MOHAWK 4/22
RACE 1
$10
$12
$4
$3
RACE 2
$4
$10
$9
$4
RACE 3
NO BET
RACE 4
$10
$4
$5
$3
RACE 5
$4
$12
$7
$8
RACE 6
$7
$8
$12
$4
RACE 7
$3
$10
$12
$4
RACE 8
$5
$12
$8
$10
RACE 9
$10
$4
$5
$3
RACE 10
$12
$5
$3
$12
TOTAL WAGERED-$258.00
REMAINING BANKROLL- $159
__________________
A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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