First fraction - runup adjustments

[Robert Vaughan]

Assuming my understanding that the DRF Past Performance Time for the first fraction is the time for the lead horse to travel from its position when the "runup wire" is broken to 2 furlongs from the "runup wire", is correct ... what, if anything, do you folks do to adjust the PP time and/or distance for those horses you deem not to be leading at the end of the runup?

That is, if a horse isn't leading at the end of the runup but is at the 1/4 ... then its time is for more than 2 furlongs ... what adjustments, if any, do you make or suggest making?

[Greyfox]

Good question. The run ups must vary from track to track.
Personally, I don't make any adjustments.
But if this thread proves fruitful, I might make changes. Good question.

[46zilzal]

They vary widely as Philly and Churchill have some long run-ups. Problem is: they can even vary at the SAME TRACK so compensating for them, unless you are part of the gate crew, is impossible.

[cj]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

They vary widely as Philly and Churchill have some long run-ups. Problem is: they can even vary at the SAME TRACK so compensating for them, unless you are part of the gate crew, is impossible.

It is not impossible to compensate for them. Just watch the replays.

[Robert Vaughan]

Were I to have any answers, I wouldn't be asking the question but one would think that since the horses are most certainly accelerating during the runup ...and typically reach their running speeds, which I assume is then relatively level during the remainder of the first timed 1/4, ... within perhaps 220 feet from the gate ... it's probably a little more significant and a bit more complex than I had first thought.

I know that, for practical reasons, runups do vary slightly at the same track for the same distance ... sometimes even on the same day. However, I would think such differences are relatively insignificant when compared to the differences by track and/or distance . For example, at 6 furlongs ... I think the usual runup for Pimlico is 1 foot ... Churchill Downs about 100 ... Emerald Downs about 40 ... Bay Meadows about 20 ... while Santa Anita is probably 85.

For those tracks where I have no runup information data, I usually try to estimate them from an analysis of the average ratio of second to first fractions ... which I think comes reasonably close.

For the sprints, one would think that using the first call (just after the start) as an indicator of the horse's relative position at the time the leader breaks the runup wire ... together with the second call ... would give some indication of how the horse is performing relative to the other horses over the first fraction ... and might be a basis for making an adjustment that would be better than making no adjustment.

I suspect that the horse's natural rate of acceleration following the first couple of strides until it reaches its natural speed can be described by a continous function that can be resolved using PP data.

Thus, the ingredients are probably there but I can't cook the cake cause I can't see how to mix the ingredients.

[cj]

To answer the original question, I don't adjust at all. I don't want to benefit horses that don't break well. It is a very underrated part of the game.

[john del riccio]

The runups at TP between 6f & 6 1/2 races is a good example of how they influence the fractional & final times. TP's runup for 6 1/2f is much shorter than 6f so the fractions and final times are invariably slower going 6 1/2f.

what this means for figure makers is that making "direct comparisions" between these two races (6f & 6 1/2f) challenging.

john

In UK the starter switch that opens the gates starts the timer so everything is from a standing start where the stalls are placed. Why they don't use that in USA is a mystery - it cost litle to change things with a new switch and cable. Not much help at present though.

For a horse there is a reaction time, an acceleration time to cruise speed and a reasonably constant cruise speed to the 2f mark. Kickback and lack of room ahead can further slow a slow-starting horse.

Without video frame anaylsis, the reaction time can probably only be judged in relative terms ie how does a particular horse do in starting fast relative to other horses over a series of races (agree with cj on watching this aspect).

The acceleration phase is often over 5 short strides and horse specific which can vary between 80-100 feet, so USA run ups are largely too short to obtain full cruise speed when the timer is switched on. Again, watching the video and stride counting can give some clues.

Lastly, the first fraction is the least important as regards energy use (most horse have this in abundance at this stage) but very important for positional placing. The positional placing at 2f is given so depending on methods used it may be an area where numeric analysis won't help very much, whereas just noting what actually happened in relative terms is as much as you need.

[shanta]

Originally Posted by robert99

Lastly, the first fraction is the least important as regards energy use (most horse have this in abundance at this stage) but very important for positional placing.

The first fraction energy use is the most important stage of the race.

Positional placing(gains/losses) are also units of energy that are being expended by horses.

Lead or "boss" horses are establishing their dominance over the others. When they are pushed beyond their comfort zone and run faster they pay the price late.

Everything that happens later is a direct result of the break and the initial QUARTER MILE of the race.

A few noticable 1st fraction runup issues:
1) Cd - 6f is very fast
2) Pimlico - 6f is very slow
3) Cd - 8.5f (dirt) is very slow
4) Tp - 6.5 is very slow

My opinions
Richie

[john del riccio]

Originally Posted by shanta

The first fraction energy use is the most important stage of the race.

Positional placing(gains/losses) are also units of energy that are being expended by horses.

Lead or "boss" horses are establishing their dominance over the others. When they are pushed beyond their comfort zone and run faster they pay the price late.

Everything that happens later is a direct result of the break and the initial QUARTER MILE of the race.

A few noticable 1st fraction runup issues:
1) Cd - 6f is very fast
2) Pimlico - 6f is very slow
3) Cd - 8.5f (dirt) is very slow
4) Tp - 6.5 is very slow

My opinions
Richie

richie, you can add MTH to the very fast 6f list.

john

[shanta]

Originally Posted by john del riccio

richie, you can add MTH to the very fast 6f list.

john

Thanx John. Will do
Richie

Originally Posted by shanta

The first fraction energy use is the most important stage of the race.

Positional placing(gains/losses) are also units of energy that are being expended by horses.

Lead or "boss" horses are establishing their dominance over the others. When they are pushed beyond their comfort zone and run faster they pay the price late.

Everything that happens later is a direct result of the break and the initial QUARTER MILE of the race.

A few noticable 1st fraction runup issues:
1) Cd - 6f is very fast
2) Pimlico - 6f is very slow
3) Cd - 8.5f (dirt) is very slow
4) Tp - 6.5 is very slow

My opinions
Richie

Richie,

I think we are agreeing that. I am talking about energy in work done per second terms which should really be called power (real horse power). If a horse does not use its available energy to the full ie a slow break it will be behind in the positional sense - but that is energy expended, not energy (in excess) that could be made available.

Dirt is a poor traction surface so it is not so easy to make up any lost ground as on turf - plus facing kickback. The energy expenditure lost opportunity is very difficult to make up for in increased speed later in the race. In energy terms even poor class horses have available energy in abundance in the first furlongs - it is only the relatively classier horses that still have some energy to spare in the closing stages. You need both early positional ability to control the race and position, and the energy to last home. One is no more important than the other. If it were, the horses behind might as well pack up and go home.

I don't believe that any horse is a boss horse on a racetrack.
There are certainly horses that have more horse power available at every stage and can give the appearance of dominance.
In the wild, the boss horse stays well away, but in eye and earshot, of the herd. The only other dominant horses are some mares with foals.

If horses go past a point when their energy production falls below what the others in the race are achieving then they will fall back. That is a physical reaction within their biomechanics and is most likely to happen to those horses pushed too hard in the early stages - either to gain a lead or catch up from a poor break. But all this is getting away from the thread topic.

[Secretariat]

I suppose one could create first fraction pars by track, and by noticing the differences, one could assume the differences reflect a runup variance, since an overal ltrack variance would have it's least impact on first fraction since early horses are running their fastest.

For example, i'm sure overall tracking of allowance horses running at PIM versus allowance horses running at DEL will show a signficant difference. For a quick comparision I beleive Dave Schwartz's Track Pars are broken down to first quarter pars. Why not simply create a runup par from his work and save the time?

[46zilzal]

On the great Frontline show, "The Other Side of the Track," the announcer followed around Connie Mergos (selling?) a.k.a. THE BEARD who measured the run up in each race each day and he claimed it varied enough, even there at Belmont (where the show was filmed that day) to note it each time they set up the gate.

[karlskorner]

When Richie "The Beard" left NY in the late 60's he sold the sheet to Connie Mergos. Richie now hand times from the gate along with Toby Collet for Equibase at GP. Richie for a time worked for Randy Schroder ( Lawtons sheet ) before he went on his own. Randy hand timed from gate and I am told and read that he was influnential to the tote board during the 50's and 60.s at NY tracks. I learned from Richie in the late 70's how to adjust for the runup. There is a difference between 1 /4 and 1/2 times as printed and must be considered.