More Weird Stats @AQU !!!

[TheOracle]

Originally Posted by TheOracle

Let's also update the date on these picks as there was no racing on the 25th of December

pick12-28-20181	12-28-2018	4th race	6	Little Nanny (NY)	Claiming	One Mile	C Baker	5/2#	Dirt
pick12-28-20182	12-28-2018	6th race	1	Blue Belt (NY)	Claiming	Seven Furlongs	J T Toscano Jr.	5/2#	Dirt

Aqueduct should have a Sloppy surface today!!!

Originally Posted by Wizard of Odds

Was Watching: Out of the Money and Third, respectively at Aqueduct today

Yup one third and one off the board

Res12-28-20181	12-28-2018	4th race	6	Little Nanny (NY)	Claiming	One Mile	C Baker	5/2#	Dirt Sloppy	0.0	0.0	0.0
Res12-28-20182	12-28-2018	6th race	1	Blue Belt (NY)	Claiming	Seven Furlongs	J T Toscano Jr.	5/2#	Dirt Sloppy	0.0	0.0	3.1

The Morning Line 5/2 Claimers are now 0 for their last 7 and 1 for their last 14 on a Sloppy surface

Let’s keep an eye on this situation we might get another Sloppy surface at the Big A!!!

[TheOracle]

Interesting to note, the Morning Line 5/2 Claimers on a Sloppy surface are now 1 for their last 14



However, you are getting an 11% return per $2 show wager since January 28th, 2018

Let's also keep track of the show money as well!!!

[Wizard of Odds]

Originally Posted by TheOracle

Interesting to note, the Morning Line 5/2 Claimers on a Sloppy surface are now 1 for their last 14



However, you are getting an 11% return per $2 show wager since January 28th, 2018

Let's also keep track of the show money as well!!!

I predict that the next 100 such races will result in a Show ROI of .86 plus or minus .05 (i.e., .81< ROI < .91) for a negative return. Let's keep track and see.

[TheOracle]

Originally Posted by Wizard of Odds

I predict that the next 100 such races will result in a Show ROI of .86 plus or minus .05 (i.e., .81< ROI < .91) for a negative return. Let's keep track and see.

Hey Wiz,

Since 2013, when I started tracking, out of 45 starts the Show ROI has been 1.014 so +1.4% on your money so far per $2 show wager for the past 5 years



You picked up a $1.30 profit on $90 interesting that 25 out of 45 finished 2nd or 3rd

Let's see how the next 50+ go in this situation!!!

[Wizard of Odds]

Originally Posted by TheOracle

Hey Wiz,

Since 2013, when I started tracking, out of 45 starts the Show ROI has been 1.014 so +1.4% on your money so far per $2 show wager for the past 5 years



You picked up a $1.30 profit on $90 interesting that 25 out of 45 finished 2nd or 3rd

Let's see how the next 50+ go in this situation!!!

Oracle,

After noticing a pattern, I believe, it's only fair to test the efficacy prospectively.


Best,

Wiz

[TheOracle]

Let's also keep an eye on Morning Line Favorites ending with 5 in Allowance Optional Claiming races at Aqueduct since April 7th, 2018!!!



You are getting a 16% return per $2 win wager in this situation

Let's see how well this does for the remainder of the season!!!

[Wizard of Odds]

Originally Posted by TheOracle

Let's also keep an eye on Morning Line Favorites ending with 5 in Allowance Optional Claiming races at Aqueduct since April 7th, 2018!!!



You are getting a 16% return per $2 win wager in this situation

Let's see how well this does for the remainder of the season!!!

My predicted long term future ROI = .86 plus or minus .05.....Let's see

[TheOracle]

Originally Posted by TheOracle

Let's also keep an eye on Morning Line Favorites ending with 5 in Allowance Optional Claiming races at Aqueduct since April 7th, 2018!!!



You are getting a 16% return per $2 win wager in this situation

Let's see how well this does for the remainder of the season!!!

We have 3 Morning Line Favorites ending with 5 today in Allowance Optional Claiming races

pick01-06-20191	01-06-2019	4th race	1	Classic Czar (KY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	One Mile	S M Asmussen	9/5#	Dirt
pick01-06-20192	01-06-2019	7th race	3	Diamond Princess (NY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	Six Furlongs	L Rice	6/5#	Dirt
pick01-06-20193	01-06-2019	7th race	4	My Best Friend (NY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	Six Furlongs	H Wyner	8/5#	Dirt

Let's see if one of these can find the winners circle today!!!

[TheOracle]

Originally Posted by TheOracle

We have 3 Morning Line Favorites ending with 5 today in Allowance Optional Claiming races

pick01-06-20191	01-06-2019	4th race	1	Classic Czar (KY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	One Mile	S M Asmussen	9/5#	Dirt
pick01-06-20192	01-06-2019	7th race	3	Diamond Princess (NY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	Six Furlongs	L Rice	6/5#	Dirt
pick01-06-20193	01-06-2019	7th race	4	My Best Friend (NY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	Six Furlongs	H Wyner	8/5#	Dirt

Let's see if one of these can find the winners circle today!!!

Morning Lines ending with 5 as Allowance Optional Claimers went 0 for 3 last week with one 2nd place finish

res01-06-20191 01-06-2019	4th race	1	Classic Czar (KY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	Dirt Muddy	One Mile	S M Asmussen	9/5#				
res01-06-20192 01-06-2019	7th race	3	Diamond Princess (NY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	Dirt Muddy	Six Furlongs	L Rice	6/5#				
res01-06-20193	01-06-2019	7th race	4	My Best Friend (NY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	Dirt Muddy	Six Furlongs	H Wyner	8/5#	P		3.2	2.7

Let’s continue to watch this situation at Aqueduct for the rest of the season!!!

[TheOracle]

Originally Posted by TheOracle

Hey Wiz,

Since 2013, when I started tracking, out of 45 starts the Show ROI has been 1.014 so +1.4% on your money so far per $2 show wager for the past 5 years



You picked up a $1.30 profit on $90 interesting that 25 out of 45 finished 2nd or 3rd

Let's see how the next 50+ go in this situation!!!

We have the situation we want as there is a Morning Line 5/2 coupled entry in a Claiming race on the Dirt and the Surface should be wet if Mother Nature does her part!!!

#1 Midnight Crossing
#1A Tequila Sunday

Let's see if this will break the streak 0 for 7 winless streak since December 16, 2018 for this situation!!!

Let's also see if that show price profit can continue!!!

[TheOracle]

Originally Posted by TheOracle

We have the situation we want as there is a Morning Line 5/2 coupled entry in a Claiming race on the Dirt and the Surface should be wet if Mother Nature does her part!!!

#1 Midnight Crossing
#1A Tequila Sunday

Let's see if this will break the streak 0 for 7 winless streak since December 16, 2018 for this situation!!!

Let's also see if that show price profit can continue!!!

The coupled entry is for Aqueduct on Thursday in the 2nd race

[TheOracle]

Originally Posted by TheOracle

The coupled entry is for Aqueduct on Thursday in the 2nd race

Mother Nature has done her part and made it a Sloppy mess, now it's up to the 5/2 Morning Line Claimers to get it done in today's 2nd race at Aqueduct!!!

1	01-24-2019	2nd race	1	Midnight Crossing (KY)	Claiming	One Mile	G DiPrima	5/2#	Dirt
2	01-24-2019	2nd race	1A	Tequila Sunday (NY)	Claiming	One Mile	D A Cannizzo	5/2#	Dirt

Let's see if one of these can get it done in the winners circle today and snap the 0 for 7 streak or a nice $3 show price wouldn't be too shabby as well!!!

[TheOracle]

Originally Posted by TheOracle

Mother Nature has done her part and made it a Sloppy mess, now it's up to the 5/2 Morning Line Claimers to get it done in today's 2nd race at Aqueduct!!!

1	01-24-2019	2nd race	1	Midnight Crossing (KY)	Claiming	One Mile	G DiPrima	5/2#	Dirt
2	01-24-2019	2nd race	1A	Tequila Sunday (NY)	Claiming	One Mile	D A Cannizzo	5/2#	Dirt

Let's see if one of these can get it done in the winners circle today and snap the 0 for 7 streak or a nice $3 show price wouldn't be too shabby as well!!!

Races were cancelled for Thursday at Aqueduct

[TheOracle]

Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 have been having a field day at Aqueduct for the past 2 racing days!!!



You've been getting a 33% return per $2 win bet!!!

However, I don't see this happening today I suspect Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 will get crushed today at the Big A!!!

[TheOracle]

Will start to track Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 by percentage on a daily basis instead of by wins

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...44#post2420344

Will also start to chart them