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Old 01-14-2019, 04:34 PM   #31
VigorsTheGrey
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
It's hard for me to imagine a traditional handicapper outperforming someone with years of racing data using advanced mathematics, models, AI etc.. to handicap a broad range of races.

There are AI models these days that can look at a database of chess games and in less than a few days they are better than Kasparov and Carlsen...and it's not even close. If that kind of power is being applied to racing it's going to be tough to compete.

However, even with all the data, stats, and AI in the world, there's sometimes a subjective element to the interpretation, a pool too small for them, or a pool so large with dumb public money you can get an edge. That's probably where you want to focus. You have to go where they ain't.
If AI becomes too successful in predicting outcomes, would that spell the end of the game...? The jockeys and trainers with tacit approval from the tracks would need to resort to their own subjective devices in order to defeat “SkyNet”...I sometimes get the feeling that is going on already...

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Old 01-14-2019, 05:06 PM   #32
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I can't wait to see a live demonstration of these "hi-tech" tools at work in the handicapping of an actual race. And, until I see such a demonstration...I am forced to believe that "winning" is just as elusive among the 'hi-tech' handicappers as it is among the "traditionalists".
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Old 01-14-2019, 05:38 PM   #33
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If AI becomes too successful in predicting outcomes, would that spell the end of the game...? The jockeys and trainers with tacit approval from the tracks would need to resort to their own subjective devices in order to defeat “SkyNet”...I sometimes get the feeling that is going on already...
So, with A.I. all over the stock and commodity markets, do you think everyone else is just sucking wind?

They aren't.

Let's move away from A.I. for a moment to just some "very strong" handicapping done by the whales because they are here today.

It is pretty obvious (to me at least) that if we try to do what they are doing we will pretty much get killed. So, the first logical step is to figure out what they are doing.

They are using some form of iterative regression. (A lot like A.I.)

Yes, I know... for many here that might have well been, "Speaking Chinese Pig Latin." You weren't going to do that anyway.

Let me tell you what else they do. And this part makes them vulnerable.

Typically, this approach is equivalent to taking the horses from (say) 10,000 races and throwing them all into a pot.

Why did I say "Taking the horses?" Because ALL the horses go into the same pot.

You don't handicap that way, do you? You don't handicap Santa Anita's card and take all 54 horses and treat it like it is one giant race, right? (BTW, that was a little field-size humor.)

Of course you don't. They do. Well, they do it when they build the weights for their factors.

We, on the other hand, see the RACE as the entity. In other words, we could choose to get expert at specific scenarios, something that would be foreign to the approach the whales use.

Whales develop GLOBAL models. That is, they build a single, giant system for all races. Now, the do use LOCAL data as inputs into the process, but they are still handicapping on a global scale. (In this context, "global" does not mean "worldwide." It means across the entire sample of the data set.)

Okay, in English, that means they're building one big system and integrating track-specific data tables for things like post position, running style, etc.

What you/we have to figure out, is how to do reality-based handicapping that does not directly oppose them at every turn.


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Old 01-14-2019, 05:44 PM   #34
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Dave,

Do you think that it is the same whales year after year that are getting sharper or are new and better whales beating the former winners into losses?
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Old 01-14-2019, 06:18 PM   #35
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We, on the other hand, see the RACE as the entity. In other words, we could choose to get expert at specific scenarios, something that would be foreign to the approach the whales use.

Whales develop GLOBAL models. That is, they build a single, giant system for all races. Now, the do use LOCAL data as inputs into the process, but they are still handicapping on a global scale. (In this context, "global" does not mean "worldwide." It means across the entire sample of the data set.)

Okay, in English, that means they're building one big system and integrating track-specific data tables for things like post position, running style, etc.

What you/we have to figure out, is how to do reality-based handicapping that does not directly oppose them at every turn.

Dave
Extremely sharp post Dave, thank you...I know of one person who uses the ‘global’ approach for a Class Metric alone...I imagine he types in a horses’ name and up pops the Class Rank number...I can only imagine a massive global ranking method that factors in many metrics at the same time...!

I see the wisdom of your last sentence....we become speculative remoras, attaching ourselves to sharks and whales, and manta rays in a form of Commensalism...

http://divemagazine.co.uk/images/art...-UDA6A9358.jpg

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commensalism

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Old 01-14-2019, 07:28 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
I can't wait to see a live demonstration of these "hi-tech" tools at work in the handicapping of an actual race. And, until I see such a demonstration...I am forced to believe that "winning" is just as elusive among the 'hi-tech' handicappers as it is among the "traditionalists".
Aren't the whales like Benter enough evidence?

I don't even need evidence.

I feel certain that if I had a team of people with advanced degrees in probability, statistics, and AI using a large database of information and a team of experienced horse players inputting trip notes and other subjective information, I'd be able to make much better odds lines than I do now on my own.

The real question for me is whether after 4 decades of studying this game and ever increasing knowledge is the game passing me by because other people with better math and computer skills are pooling their talents and using machines that allow them to move at a much faster rate.

If so, it may be time to take out my pool cue and get back in stroke if I still want a chance at profitable gambling action.
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Old 01-14-2019, 07:41 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
It's hard for me to imagine a traditional handicapper outperforming someone with years of racing data using advanced mathematics, models, AI etc.. to handicap a broad range of races.

There are AI models these days that can look at a database of chess games and in less than a few days they are better than Kasparov and Carlsen...and it's not even close. If that kind of power is being applied to racing it's going to be tough to compete.

However, even with all the data, stats, and AI in the world, there's sometimes a subjective element to the interpretation, a pool too small for them, or a pool so large with dumb public money you can get an edge. That's probably where you want to focus. You have to go where they ain't.
The only problem is.....No model can predict the unpredictable. If all races were run to how they are predicted to be run, not only the race shape but the finish as well, then I could see the edge there. At the end of a race, anyone can say "This is the reason this horse won........", but is it really? Maybe it was another reason. Maybe it was something that was just unpredictable by both the human eye and an AI model. If you analyze long enough, you can find a possible reason why EVERY horse in a race COULD win.
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Old 01-14-2019, 07:45 PM   #38
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Don't forget rebates, everyone!
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Old 01-14-2019, 08:34 PM   #39
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Dave,

Do you think that it is the same whales year after year that are getting sharper or are new and better whales beating the former winners into losses?
Threads like these are fascinating, wish we had more.

I've been thinking lately, that it could be possible for a better capitalized team, i.e one that has been around for a long time, accumulated a large profit, and negotiated large enough rebates, might be able to recognize new, better teams wagering, and withstand their bets by effectively being a loss leader. They're likely going to end up on the same combinations long enough, and could hammer them down far enough, that the better capitalized team could bankrupt the smaller, better team. Just a theory. But let's say a new team is starting with a $1 million bankroll, I'd imagine it's pooled from investors who aren't going to withstand an initial, large drawdown.

Also, racing being "unpredictable" doesn't matter as long as there is some part that IS predictable. Then it becomes a matter of just being able to predict it slightly better than the next best person. If a race is 99% chance, 1% deterministic, and I'm very slightly better at predicting the %1 deterministic part, I'm going to clean up - doesn't matter what the random/deterministic split is.
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Old 01-14-2019, 10:03 PM   #40
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The only problem is.....No model can predict the unpredictable. If all races were run to how they are predicted to be run, not only the race shape but the finish as well, then I could see the edge there. At the end of a race, anyone can say "This is the reason this horse won........", but is it really? Maybe it was another reason. Maybe it was something that was just unpredictable by both the human eye and an AI model. If you analyze long enough, you can find a possible reason why EVERY horse in a race COULD win.
I think what you're saying makes sense at first but misses the point in a dangerous way. It doesn't matter if the model gets every race right---it gets enough races right that these whales make a profit (with rebates and/or without) and it's much better than what the average person can do without their model. For one race, you might beat the whales, but they're betting 100 races today, and if you went up against them in all 100 races they're beating you.
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Old 01-14-2019, 10:14 PM   #41
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I think what you're saying makes sense at first but misses the point in a dangerous way. It doesn't matter if the model gets every race right---it gets enough races right that these whales make a profit (with rebates and/or without) and it's much better than what the average person can do without their model. For one race, you might beat the whales, but they're betting 100 races today, and if you went up against them in all 100 races they're beating you.
Yeah....I thought about that after posting that comment. Makes total sense when you look at the long run. I guess it's just more reason for people like you and I to choose our spots wisely and let the whales hammer out their 100 races / day.
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Old 01-14-2019, 10:46 PM   #42
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I've kept a betting log since 1997. It lists about everything about the bet I can possibly log.

*** There's one and only one "reason for bet" that shows a positive roi since 2001***. Physicality.... Not pace advantage, not class advantage, not trainer moves... Physicality.... It shows a positive roi in both win and place bets for 18 consecutive years.

I think it was takach or Parker that said twenty years ago that physicality was the final frontier in profitable handicapping. He / she was pretty much on the mark. The so called whales have become too sharp to beat at their own game.

Guys I know at the Simo are a bit too prideful to make the switch from their traditional handicapping to physicality. Most handicappers have the "I'm smarter than the crowd" syndrome, so none have made any significant changes to their style of handicapping, but their returns have been smaller and smaller as years go by.

I do use TFUS in addition to physicality, but it accounts for maybe 15% of my decision. Other than a pick 4 that starts with a good looking horse, I don't look at pp's until I see a horse that catches my eye. This is an angle AI or whales or whatever will be behind the curve.
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Old 01-14-2019, 11:16 PM   #43
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I've kept a betting log since 1997. It lists about everything about the bet I can possibly log.

*** There's one and only one "reason for bet" that shows a positive roi since 2001***. Physicality.... Not pace advantage, not class advantage, not trainer moves... Physicality.... It shows a positive roi in both win and place bets for 18 consecutive years.

I think it was takach or Parker that said twenty years ago that physicality was the final frontier in profitable handicapping. He / she was pretty much on the mark. The so called whales have become too sharp to beat at their own game.

Guys I know at the Simo are a bit too prideful to make the switch from their traditional handicapping to physicality. Most handicappers have the "I'm smarter than the crowd" syndrome, so none have made any significant changes to their style of handicapping, but their returns have been smaller and smaller as years go by.

I do use TFUS in addition to physicality, but it accounts for maybe 15% of my decision. Other than a pick 4 that starts with a good looking horse, I don't look at pp's until I see a horse that catches my eye. This is an angle AI or whales or whatever will be behind the curve.
It is impossible to do ‘physicality’ at the simos...you simply must be at the track to do that with any degree of confidence...
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Old 01-14-2019, 11:32 PM   #44
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Coachv, I am in total agreement with your reasoning. There are so many variables to consider when handicapping a race that rarely does a capper focus in on the one or two true factors that actually contribute to the outcome/ winner. I am not a computer capper but what I can say in their favor is the fact that computers do not get fatigued like the human mind.

Regarding Bill Benter and his Trio success, I believe the computer was the most help when figuring the all encompassing ticket combinations and not as much with handicapping.
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Old 01-14-2019, 11:35 PM   #45
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The horse can show all the rights signs of health, fitness and conditioning and still be very outclassed...enough to run out of the money. All the data, signs, and wonders are required to keep being a winner at this game and that requires extensive free time and extra money also....

I picture the average race-goer, and weekly enthusiast losing his shirt almost every time...because he bets until he wins, wins then bets until he loses all the money he brought with him for the day....

The track talk about ‘handle’ and their 15% to 25% ‘rake’ as if that was all they got...but really, they get nearly ALL of it...most of the fans walk away with empty pockets every day...and maybe just the whales, a few sharks and some guys on boards like this one do ok...sometimes...but the rake is like taking 10 pounds of cash and putting it through a 25% filter...you get 75% back....and do that 6 or 10 more times...real soon you’re left with about as much dough as to purchase a cup of coffee....

...the more times you bet, the more times you put your money through that filter...the more we play, the less chance we leave with more than we started with....it is how the tracks stay in business, everyone knows this....and still we continue to bet, thinking that THIS TIME things will be different....

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