TLG vs. CMOORE

[cj]

The reason the percentage is higher with 2yos, obviously, is because many times they are running against a whole bunch of other 1st time starters.

In races where at least one horse has started at 4.5f or more, the ROI loss is about equal for 2yos and 3yos. That loss is about 28% on each dollar wagered. Good luck cracking that nut on breeding and trainer stats.

[cmoore]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Coming up with theoretical reasons to bet most horses is not particularly hard and it is especially easy with first time starters. If, however, the entire strategy is essentially flawed, as this one is, then the " reasoning " becomes irrelevent.

Just stick to your trip handicapping. We'll see where that gets you after 500 races my friend..

I thought we could have a nice discussion today online about the races..But your ego seems to get in the way.

[cmoore]

Oh My GOD..The 1/2 over bet favorite gets beat by the 5-1. My dart throwing hit. I can't believe it!!!!

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cmoore

Just stick to your trip handicapping. We'll see where that gets you after 500 races my friend..

I thought we could have a nice discussion today online about the races..But your ego seems to get in the way.

I have been nice, and a lot more helpful to you than most would have been, especially given how stranglely cocky and nasty you are, and it appears to be you that doesn't wish to have a conversation. No problem.

I hate to tell you this but there is no contest here. My picks are a matter of public record. Anyone that wishes to check their's against mine is welcome to do so. Some will do better.....some will do worse.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cmoore

Oh My GOD..The 1/2 over bet favorite gets beat by the 5-1. My dart throwing hit. I can't believe it!!!!

And the 18:1 shot that I picked in the race ran a close third. This was a favorite I wasn't particularly fond of either. However, unlike you, at least I acknowledged her presense and picked her second. You didn't even have her 1-2-3. Thus.....dart throwing.

[cmoore]

Originally Posted by the little guy

I have been nice, and a lot more helpful to you than most would have been, especially given how stranglely cocky and nasty you are, and it appears to be you that doesn't wish to have a conversation. No problem.

I hate to tell you this but there is no contest here. My picks are a matter of public record. Anyone that wishes to check their's against mine is welcome to do so. Some will do better.....some will do worse.

You've been helpful to me..Uh, when was that??

How stranglely cocky and nasty I've been..Again when when was that?

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cmoore

You've been helpful to me..Uh, when was that??

How stranglely cocky and nasty I've been..Again when when was that?

If you would take some time and try to listen to what I said it could be very helpful to you.

[cmoore]

Originally Posted by the little guy

And the 18:1 shot that I picked in the race ran a close third. This was a favorite I wasn't particularly fond of either. However, unlike you, at least I acknowledged her presense and picked her second. You didn't even have her 1-2-3. Thus.....dart throwing.

You amaze time after time..I hit a winner but you find a way to attack my 2nd and 3rd choice. All because I didn't pick the 1/2 over bet favorite..This contest that I signed up for is a win contest only..It's not about exactas, trifectas or even supers..So your damn right I'm going go against the 2-1 ML odds favorite when I think she can be beat by more then 1 horse in a race..2-1 was too low last night..1/2 today was ridiculous..

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cmoore

You amaze time after time..I hit a winner but you find a way to attack my 2nd and 3rd choice. All because I didn't pick the 1/2 over bet favorite..This contest that I signed up for is a win contest only..It's not about exactas, trifectas or even supers..So your damn right I'm going go against the 2-1 ML odds favorite when I think she can be beat by more then 1 horse in a race..2-1 was too low last night..1/2 today was ridiculous..

You didn't have to explain it to me.....I understand the dart throwing and even why you do it.

Unlike you, I have a great many people that follow my picks and they do so because I offer intelligent guidance on the races. I would not only do those people a great disservice by throwing darts as you do....I would also encourage them to not listen to me. I will never do either one.

[cmoore]

Originally Posted by cj

The reason the percentage is higher with 2yos, obviously, is because many times they are running against a whole bunch of other 1st time starters.

In races where at least one horse has started at 4.5f or more, the ROI loss is about equal for 2yos and 3yos. That loss is about 28% on each dollar wagered. Good luck cracking that nut on breeding and trainer stats.

Knowing which sires to bet is key CJ. Which sires offspring are bred to run fast and furious early..Which ones are bred to run longer distances. Which ones are more likely to favor the grass or a non firm turf course then others. By clicking into a database and grouping races together and coming up with a negative 28% roi is something I don't agree with. Because some races might offer great value and other races will not..But To each his own..

[cj]

Originally Posted by cmoore

Knowing which sires to bet is key CJ. Which sires offspring are bred to run fast and furious early..Which ones are bred to run longer distances. Which ones are more likely to favor the grass or a non firm turf course then others. By clicking into a database and grouping races together and coming up with a negative 28% roi is something I don't agree with. Because some races might offer great value and other races will not..But To each his own..

Lets be honest here, it isn't like you have been rolling in picking winning first time starters in this contest. I realize every race is different, and I know a few guys that do moderately well betting 2yo firsters. But, they do a lot more work than just doing sire study. They watch sales workouts and follow the history of the horse from birth to the starting gate.

Anyway, I'm sure PA won't be happy about my involvement in this thread, but I couldn't resist. After the BC I'll start a 1st time starters thread and we can talk about it in depth then.

[cmoore]

Originally Posted by cj

Lets be honest here, it isn't like you have been rolling in picking winning first time starters in this contest. I realize every race is different, and I know a few guys that do moderately well betting 2yo firsters. But, they do a lot more work than just doing sire study. They watch sales workouts and follow the history of the horse from birth to the starting gate.

Anyway, I'm sure PA won't be happy about my involvement in this thread, but I couldn't resist. After the BC I'll start a 1st time starters thread and we can talk about it in depth then.

CJ, When one focuses on first timers.. They usually focus on many tracks and not just one circuit. That first timer thread sounds good..

[cmoore]

Originally Posted by the little guy

You didn't have to explain it to me.....I understand the dart throwing and even why you do it.

Unlike you, I have a great many people that follow my picks and they do so because I offer intelligent guidance on the races. I would not only do those people a great disservice by throwing darts as you do....I would also encourage them to not listen to me. I will never do either one.

As I said before..This contest has one very important rule. It's called WIN betting only. Go back and look at some of my wins..There are some low priced payoffs here and there. I do recognize favorites. But I will go against favorites that are likely to win when they are grossly over bet..Today I'm 1 for 2 going against a 1/2 and a 2/5. I had good handicapping factors for each. You can call my handicapping anything you want. Call it astrology handicapping for all I care. It doesn't matter TLG. When this contest is over..I'd be happy to go heads up with you in a different format any day of the week..

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cmoore

As I said before..This contest has one very important rule. It's called WIN betting only. Go back and look at some of my wins..There are some low priced payoffs here and there. I do recognize favorites. But I will go against favorites that are likely to win when they are grossly over bet..Today I'm 1 for 2 going against a 1/2 and a 2/5. I had good handicapping factors for each. You can call my handicapping anything you want. Call it astrology handicapping for all I care. It doesn't matter TLG. When this contest is over..I'd be happy to go heads up with you in a different format any day of the week..

Here is what you are explaining, yet don't seem to fully understand......you are playing in a contest that I am not allowed to play by the rules you follow.

Cockiness is pretty easy with the safety of the internet.....where you are a faceless typist and I am a publicly identifiable figure. You seem to be emboldened by this. Nothing that happens here is a fair fight.

[cmoore]

LOXY LADY gets by Boxitup...Another dart throwing pick beats the favorite. Who would of thought..If you watched her last race..You would of seen that she gobbled up a ton of ground. A 104 late pace to be exact..She went from 9th to 1st..The move up in class didn't bother me when Dynaformer and Broad Brush offspring have the most turf wins over the last 3 years..But as you stated..Pedigree handicapping is FOLLY!!!!