If I want to get worked about this I will get worked up, okay? It's called "writing style." Normally mine is somewhere between H L Mencken and Andy Kaufman on an acid trip...
Okay, according to the charts, the final furlough was run in 13 1/2 sec. give or take 1/100 of a sec.
Do you think they are going to run the final furlough at CD any faster? Well maybe if the pace was slower, but let's assume it's not, and anyhow I did not see this pace as all that fast, AND the derby is likely to be run at quite a hot pace anyhow PLUS they run 10 fur. so little these days they dont really improve any with the next race, AND it's only an estimate, and if we dont like it we can always try a different hypotheses?
Mmm'kay? So going from the stretch call (I'll have to look at the tape again to be more accurate) KoRox actually lost 1/2 length in the final stretch,so he finished in say 13.58...ANd Tiago gained about 2 1/2 len. so he finished in 13.1 or so.
One guy will probably run 27 sec. final quart. the other a 26.2..If you look at enuf of these numbers that's huge...That's Birdstone passing Smarty at Belmont type stuff..
Tiago may have made up more, I was looking at the tape and trying to figure out where the 1/8 pole is. I"m guessing more like a 13 sec final 1/8 but we'll see. We have a month to figure this one out...
You need to run about a 25 sec. close to win as a closer in this race. You can tune into to About.com and channel a guy named Stan who has all the stats on this, he thinks it applies to all winners in the derby but the 25 sec. quarter is really a must for closers.
Even then it's not always true. I think Carry Back closed in 25.5 against some seriously backing up horses I may add. Havent seen many that can win like that. A 24 sec. closer is great: Ponder, Needles, Secretariat (ran even faster on that rocket strip).
You may be able to spot a few 24 1/2 sec. closers in this race. Bet them!
How fast does a front runner have to come in? Well 25 1/2 would be nice. Even then you may have to settle for 26. So Tiago were a front runner I would like his chances, as a closer no way. It makes that much of a difference.
Want to see the greatest front runner in the Derby? Take a look at SPend a Buck's derby. Runs 1:09 and change on the front and finishes in 25 1/2. For a 2:01 something...That would be very hard to duplicate. You may take that as some sort of ideal. Idont think any other horse has won this race running a sub 1:10. Again a good yardstick.
Now, if a front runner can run just a little slower, and say a 1:10 1/2 and then maybe a nice 25 on the turn, then come home in 26, well you do the math he can run a 2:01 1/2 and probably win.
So for a front runner 26 may be acceptable 25 1/2 ideal. No one can home in 25 1/2 if they are pressured on the front, though, if they hav to run say a 24 sec. on the turn. Even Buckpasser would not come home in 25..
Okay maybe Spend a Buck could do it.
One horse who looks like he can win this on the front end is Hard Spun, assuming the surface he's running on is not crazy biased. This horse might be able to finish in 25 1/2...So then the question is, how fast can a pace can this horse set before he tanks it..? Dont know the answer to that one....
Okay:
Things to Study and Discuss:
1) Why is a 1:10 time for 3/4 mile an important benchmark?
2) How much better can a horse finish if he runs a 24 sec vs a 24 1/2 sec. internal quarter?
3) a horse is finished when he runs a final quarter in..?
Anyhow hope this gives you some idea. For more info on writing style, contact the fatman,he can send you a complete course along with head ons.
