New "Jockey 7 Wager" at Kentucky Downs

[VigorsTheGrey]

http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/sm_f...key_Wager2.pdf

http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/index.html

[VigorsTheGrey]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KYDownsRacing

[VigorsTheGrey]

Julian 1st
Field 2nd
Tyler 3rd

$1.00 Jockey Challenge EXACTA 10-14
22.90
$2.00 Jockey Challenge PLACE 10
6.00
$2.00 Jockey Challenge PLACE 14
5.00
$2.00 Jockey Challenge SHOW 10
3.60
$2.00 Jockey Challenge SHOW 14
2.60
$2.00 Jockey Challenge SHOW 3
3.40
$0.50 Jockey Challenge TRIFECTA 10-14-3
74.65
$2.00 Jockey Challenge WIN 10
13.20

[VigorsTheGrey]

http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/sm_f...key_Wager2.pdf

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/sm_f...key_Wager2.pdf

Anybody understand and can explain to me how the morning line odds maker at Kentucky Downs made Julien Leparoux the 7/2 favorite today...?

I think it has something to do with calculating a binomial distribution but I would like to understand exactly how he arrived at Juliens' odds line, as well as the others...

It might involve multiplying the morning line odds of all his mounts together using this binomial calculator

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

Any stats and probability buffs out there to explain in laymans terms, and so I can do the calc in the future...?

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Anybody understand and can explain to me how the morning line odds maker at Kentucky Downs made Julien Leparoux the 7/2 favorite today...?

I think it has something to do with calculating a binomial distribution but I would like to understand exactly how he arrived at Juliens' odds line, as well as the others...

It might involve multiplying the morning line odds of all his mounts together using this binomial calculator

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

Any stats and probability buffs out there to explain in laymans terms, and so I can do the calc in the future...?

What does binomial distribution have to do with this? Binomial distribution just tells you what his percent will be of hitting say 1 of 6 winners or 2 of 6 winners...Doesn't this bet give points for 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th....

The way I would approach this is to basically look at each horse and assume he will finish as I rank him. So if the first horse Geroux is on is my 3rd choice, I would score him as coming 3rd...........go through every horse on every jockey and I would have my own estimated projected score. Once I have a projected score on each jockey, it should not be hard to spot value if there is any.

[Poindexter]

I am going to back off my previous post a bit because I honestly do not like the way the bet is graded. The scoring is as follows.

Under the points system, a win is worth 25 points, second is 12, third is nine and fourth is five, with one point awarded for a late scratch or if a horse is declared a non-starter.


Basically if your jockey doesn't win a race your a basically toast. So perhaps you may want to consult binomial distribution tables just to factor in the chances of each jockey winning 1 or 2 races(using either your own oddsline or the morning line) . If that probability is too low, toss the jockey. I do think that if you use the estimated score method I talked about in my prior post, you typically will have a solid jockey that will have a reasonable chance of winning at least one race.

[VigorsTheGrey]

4 Field 7.20, 3.00, 2.20
3 Florent Geroux 14.00, 8.40
6 Brian Hernandez, Jr. 4.00
$1 Exacta 51.60
$1 trifecta 273.10

[VigorsTheGrey]

The Jockey Challenge Wager is not available to bet in many places.....that is probably why the handle for this is so low

[Jeff P]

Kentucky Downs handled better than $8.5 million on yesterday's card.

But they only handled about $10k in total for the new jockey wagers.

Methinks players are responding well to the other more traditional wagers because they actually like big fields and reasonable exacta takeout.



-jp

.

[upthecreek]

Twitter

[VigorsTheGrey]

http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/sm_f...key7_91017.jpg

Win Jose Lezcano
Place the Field
Show Jose Ortiz
$1.00 Jockey Challenge EXACTA 10-14
47.00
$2.00 Jockey Challenge PLACE 10
14.20
$2.00 Jockey Challenge PLACE 14
5.40
$2.00 Jockey Challenge SHOW 10
6.80
$2.00 Jockey Challenge SHOW 12
3.20
$2.00 Jockey Challenge SHOW 14
2.10
$0.50 Jockey Challenge TRIFECTA 10-14-12
153.15
$2.00 Jockey Challenge WIN 10
15.40

[VigorsTheGrey]

Is this bet offered any place other than at Kentucky Downs itself...?

The pool sizes are so low that it is reasonable to expect that no other place offers it.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Is this bet offered any place other than at Kentucky Downs itself...?

The pool sizes are so low that it is reasonable to expect that no other place offers it.

Of course other places are offering it. Aren't you betting it?

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Kentucky Downs handled better than $8.5 million on yesterday's card.

But they only handled about $10k in total for the new jockey wagers.

Methinks players are responding well to the other more traditional wagers because they actually like big fields and reasonable exacta takeout.



-jp

.

maybe they should try carding some full field dirt races, me thinks we have enough full turf fields already in this country.