Is Street Sense the next Triple Crown winner? - Page 3 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

OTM Al · 05-10-2007, 04:02 PM

Straight exacta, Street Sense over Curlin. Hit it hard. I really like Hard Spun, but I think the pace will get him this time. If you think they are so much better than the rest and the exacta is paying $10, you are getting 4-1 on what you seem to consider a very high probability event. Could be the biggest bargain you'll find in some time. Course if the exata is only paying $5, you (and I) may not want to do that, but I bet it will still be pretty generous given the horses involved

ghostyapper · 05-10-2007, 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cratos

Bruddah,

Hard Spun looks like he is legit for up to a mile and maybe 1-1/8 miles, but beyond that distance he is spent.

I don't see how you could say that. He ran a sub 47 half and galloped out strong after 10 furlongs.

GaryG · 05-10-2007, 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ghostyapper

I don't see how you could say that. He ran a sub 47 half and galloped out strong after 10 furlongs.

Yes, he looked strong past the wire. I had some time on my hands today so I watched tapes. Hard Spun will to hard to beat and I don't see him undone by the projected pace. I prefer SS underneath, but the exacta will be wothless. Maybe some value in the tri.

LemonSoupKid · 05-10-2007, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greyfox

You're absolutely right. Jeremy took his runner too close to the pace too soon.
He seemed to learn from that error in the next two legs of the Triple Crown.
Or he "guessed better." If he had guessed better the first time he'd have won the Triple Crown.

Grey, I was as big of an Alex fan as any and had him in all the races. He just didn't have it on Derby Day. It was a very good ride for Rose and there were 20 horses. Of course Rose would say after the last two that he was to blame, not Afleet Alex, for not winning the Derby. He wanted everyone to believe that he was a Triple Crown type horse. Well, Giacomo and Closing Argument were better on Derby Day, and there's nothing I can wish into existence that will change that.

Learning from that, perhaps a lot of these guys don't like the CD surface that much, as has been detailed by a few reporters. Maybe Street Sense won't like Pimlico's as much -- he sure hasn't run well enough outside of CD to make us believe that Curlin can't give him all he can ask for. This should be interesting.

I'm going against him too.

Greyfox · 05-10-2007, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

Well, Giacomo and Closing Argument were better on Derby Day,.

Yes, they were better that day. I even bet on one of them and made hay.
That was only due to Dame Fortune. Neither were as good as Alex that day, or any day since coming into the race.
Jeremy stayed to close to the early foot.
But why were those two plugs better on Derby Day? They were the best closers. The front speed and pressers and sustained pressers were spent.
What have those two done since? Not much.

LemonSoupKid · 05-10-2007, 07:13 PM

Let me get this straight:

You say they were better that day. Then you say neither was as good as Alex that day. Hmmmm

Triple Crowns aren't won by "almost" candidates. Point Given was every bit as good as Alex, finished fifth. It just happened that Monarchos ran the race of his life that day. That's why the shiznit is so hard to do. Immortals are immortals because they get Ws, because they are that much superior --- it doesn't matter that they were on the hard end of "luck" or probability or any of this other non sensical stuff.

How are you so positive it was Rose and not the Churchill surface? All I know is results, and they are what enshrine champions. Giacomo sucked. Closing Argument sucked. But that day they were good enough to win, and not allow our favorite horse the ability to call himself Triple Crown Champion.

The only way your point of view makes sense is if Alex had a broken leg or stepped on a pin like Spectacular Bid did. But he didn't.

Cratos · 05-10-2007, 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ghostyapper

I don't see how you could say that. He ran a sub 47 half and galloped out strong after 10 furlongs.

Hard Spun’s fractions in the Derby were 22.96, 23.30, 24.87, 25.91, and 25.50.

This gives him a 51.41 for the last ½ mile. Therefore if he was “strong” at the end of the Derby, his fractions don’t show it.

Greyfox · 05-10-2007, 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

Let me get this straight:

You say they were better that day. Then you say neither was as good as Alex that day. Hmmmm

.

Hmmm. You are chopping off what I said. I said neither were as good
coming into the race. Obviously they were both better at the finish as
the colt ran too close to a fairly stiff pace.
The first 6 furlongs of that race went in 69.59 seconds.
Afleet Alex was maybe 5 or so lengths behind that pace running 9 th.
In the meanwhile, Giacomo was in 18 th place.
Afleet Alex lost the race by 1 length.
The chart is here for you to inspect.

http://msn.foxsports.com/horseracing/story/3594472

Greyfox · 05-10-2007, 08:53 PM

Maybe I should swallow crow here.
I never looked at Closing Arguments running line until now.
He was ahead of Alex at every call.

You are right guys. I was wrong.

ghostyapper · 05-10-2007, 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cratos

Hard Spun’s fractions in the Derby were 22.96, 23.30, 24.87, 25.91, and 25.50.

This gives him a 51.41 for the last ½ mile. Therefore if he was “strong” at the end of the Derby, his fractions don’t show it.

His last quarter was faster than the previous quarter so distance was not a factor. Keep in mind this is off a 46 and 1 pressured half mile.

Hes from danzig out of a turkoman mare. Am I missing something here?

JPinMaryland · 05-10-2007, 09:31 PM

he ran a 25 1/2 final quarter running on the front end of things. This is very good for a front runner, some of you ought to look up those derby charts and see for yourself.

LemonSoupKid · 05-11-2007, 12:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greyfox

Maybe I should swallow crow here.
I never looked at Closing Arguments running line until now.
He was ahead of Alex at every call.

You are right guys. I was wrong.

Respect, Greyfox. It takes a man to admit it.

Cheers. Let's see if Curlin is this year's Alex. I hope so.

LSK

DrugSalvastore · 05-11-2007, 01:26 AM

Street Sense has landed in the right kind of crop to pull it off...

However, unless he gets two more dream trips, I don't see him doing it. It's never an easy task for a deep closer.

cj · 05-11-2007, 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cratos

The horse that might add intrigue to the Preakness if he is entered could be Asiatic Boy, the UAE winner.

Allowing a 4 year old to run would certainly add intrigue.

Cratos · 05-11-2007, 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

Allowing a 4 year old to run would certainly add intrigue.

Not really sure what you are referring too, but the line below from the chart of the UAE Derby says that Asiatic Boy is a 3yo. You might be talking about him being bred in Argentina which would make him a few months older than his counterparts and under the American horse age rules he would be a 4yo.

Finish Horse Age/Wt Trainer Country Jockey Distances
1 10 ASIATIC BOY (ARG) 3/59kgs M de Kock UAE W Marwing