My first article on betting horses

[Dave Schwartz]

No problem at all Dave. You can even just post the text if you give me credit as author.

CJ,

Thank you. I will do that.


Dave

[RBrowning]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

CJ,

Thank you. I will do that.


Dave

Or you could just give me the credit,Dave.

Either one will work just fine.




But my name probably looks better.

[Pell Mell]

CJ I liked it and I also liked the spacing which makes it easier to read. I may try to copy and paste also because the program I use converts to rich text which is too close together for old eyes. I have a blog where I write some stupid stuff about horses.

http://race606.blogspot.com/

[Indulto]

… I just enjoy talking racing and sharing my insights, no matter how misguided they may be.

I want to show what is needed to play for a living, or to play semi-pro for a portion of your income. I'll also touch on how you can better spend your money even if you play just for entertainment. I want to show the various levels of bets you need to make if you are playing a few tracks, or a lot. If you look at my example, how much would someone have to bet per race if they were only betting one track a day, and maybe three races on the card? A lot of people just don't think about things like this.

CJ,
I enjoyed your article. Common sense and insight make a potent pair. For those of us too jaded to count on consistent profits playing horses capable of supporting a non-marginal life style, it would indeed be nice if you addressed “Reality vs. Expectation” (the reverse of your thesis). In other words, given what one can comfortably risk over a given period, how and where should one deploy one’s resources in order to optimize the return on one’s plays?

I play on 50-100 of the prime days annually for graded stakes/high purse simulcasts at multiple tracks on weekends and holidays. I'm seldom good for in-depth handicapping of more than ten races the day/night before. I always play DMR, SA, HOL, SAR, BEL, KEE, CD, and GP, but in 2006 my best days came at AP, HAW, LS, and OP in exotics on Arlington Million, Hawthorne Gold Cup, Lone Star Handicap, and Arkansas Derby days.

Last year, roughly 75% of my payoff total came from the 25% of my wagered total on races outside of NY and SoCal. I seem to do best with the P3, EX, P4, and TRI in that order. My biggest payoff came in a TRI, but total profit was greatest on P3s. I closed with a rush, but couldn't break even on win bets (only at 5-1 or higher) and lost money on P6s and Supers (so much for 10c Supers, but I’m convinced I could beat 25c P6s with the same payoff allocations as the $2 min. variety ).

[Tom]

Better than some published stuff I've read.

[Dave Schwartz]

RB,

I hereby officially give you the credit.

Also, I give you permission to pick up Tom's pay check. (I am sure he won't mind.) <G>

Dave

[Dave Schwartz]

CJ,

Okay, you are hereby immortalized. <G>

The following link is a work in progress, so be patient with what isn't there yet.

http://www.practicalhandicapping.com/desktop/

Dave

PS: DId I get the spelling right?

[kenwoodallpromos]

The article seems fine;
Except questions 1, 8, and 9 say "I", and the rest say "you"! You may want to correct that.

[DrugSalvastore]

I read it.

In that article, there are a series of senseable questions that someone looking to take their betting more seriously will need to address.

Now.....

If anyone is serious about giving up their job and employment life to bet horses for their income---and if you have the ability to work hard and smart, and have the necessary talent, my honest advice is to be prepared for a struggle with all the charchter flaws and bad habits you have as a person.

I think the old "bounce theory" might work better with horseplayers than it does with horses. In order to achieve most of your goals, in this game...you have to work SERIOUSLY hard. All the while you must resits strong urges to do stuff that will be destructive to your long term success.

It's not like in sports....you aren't going to have a coach or trainer to make sure you are developing your skills, always doing your work, and putting out maximum effort at all times. When you've been hit by bad luck, and are strongly tempted to "press" and make an unreasonably large bet right away to recoup the injustice...you will have no caddy to calm you down, keep you positive, and convince you to take a more sensible approach to your next shot.

You'll never have the great motivation, that comes from the fear of letting down teammates and family if you let up and fail. Unless of course you have a family and you are the "bread winner" ---in which case, keep your damn job! Betting horses professionaly is no life for a family man in my opinion.

But hey, even someone as tremendously flawed as a person as I am was able to fight through that and meet almost all of my goals. Andy Beyer wrote a book called "My $50,000 year at the races." I believe the year was '78. Beyer had basically never had a winning year of any signifigance at all prior to that point in his life. During that intense year of betting, he would win over $50K. I believe in his next book, The Winning Horseplayer, he said that he lost the following year. He explains it by saying "the game changes and you have to be able to change with it."

For me, (and maybe Andy as well), it's not so much that "the game" changes, but I can assure you I changed after I tasted enough success. You don't lose your talents---and certainly your knowledge and guile increase markedly with experience. However, the way I approach the game, it's work ethic, attention to detail, and sheer dedication that really trumps everything else.

The giant effort that leads to success, and the financial rewards that come with it...can lead to decrease in effort and complacency...and even total burn out.

Even if you have what it takes to win---be prepared to see the best of yourself and later the worst of yourself.

Of course, each person is there own entity...and it's very possible another person can achieve success and better handle the results of it. In fact, someone who spends money very freely and is much less "tight" than I am, they may be successful and not have the financal rewards of the success for very long. Maybe it is security that brings out the bad habits. I don't really know for sure.

[santanajimi]

Originally Posted by RBrowning

I think it's a swell article...to be honest.

I'll see what I come up with.


I'm thinking the Ravens go out their second game....by the way.

Are the Brownies still in the hunt? I have been tooo busy to keep up with it, being my stereo is too loud listening to the records you sent me...

[Murph]

I like the article, CJ.

It is interesting, informative and concise. The ending leads nicely to your next article, it makes me want to come back and read your conclusions. All are points of a well wrtten article.

You'll always be developing your writing style with more articles. Considering the comments on the question format style you used, I would keep it handy to use again. You may have found a unique style that your readers will recognize at a glance.

Maybe add a byline and a couple of links to your page. Font choice is a personal matter and I prefer a san serif. Here are links to a couple of style guides you can reference when you submit to major media worldwide.

http://www.apstylebook.com/
http://www.apastyle.org/

Best of luck with your future work.

Murph

[DaveP]

From me CJ .. good pointers for a beginner.

[RBrowning]

Are the Brownies still in the hunt? I have been tooo busy to keep up with it, being my stereo is too loud listening to the records you sent me...

--------


Oh yes.

It's just not what one would hope they are hunting for this time of year.



Glad to hear you like ABB Live at the Filmore and Santanas first 2. Ya really can't play them loud enough.

[TurfRuler]

Originally Posted by PriceAnProbability

Good theory, but too theoretical.

Professional horseplaying is about being so strong you can fire at will and know the money will keep piling up. If you're not at that point yet, don't cut off other income just to have to fight to earn it back at the track.

These days, $20,000 can be won in a single day from $100 or less.

Now if he'd publish his speed-figure and handicapping recipe...

I don't think the article is too theoretical, I believe that it is workable, having achieved success betting to win (on paper) and achieving results like this with a mystical $2,000 bankroll. Your second point about not cutting off other income is just as relevant. Your third point is the kicker, in that if you win off this bankroll you will hit a high paying exotic and the amounts probably would be beyond $40,000.

Yes I too wish he would publish his speed-figure and handicapping recipe. But your site cj and the figures you give out to players is enough for now.

I did enjoy your questions in the article. I did not think of it as a survey, I read it as some good advice being given to players by another player who knows how to win money.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by DrugSalvastore

I believe the year was '78. Beyer had basically never had a winning year of any signifigance at all prior to that point in his life. During that intense year of betting, he would win over $50K. I believe in his next book, The Winning Horseplayer, he said that he lost the following year. He explains it by saying "the game changes and you have to be able to change with it."

I don't know Beyer, but since his game has typically been so geared towards exotics, he should probably expect to get more volatile results.

When you play a low percentage high payoff game, the "long run" is a hell of a lot longer than if you are playing favorites to place.

As a result, I think some exotics are a potential pitfall for relatively inexperienced horseplayers.

It is much easier for a mediocre player to have a big winning year because of a random favorable streak of good luck and a few extra large tickets playing exotics than it is playing win, place and show. So it is also very possible to think you are a lot better than you actually are after you go through a streak like that. (of course the opposite is also true)

I would argue that changes in the game often have less to do with handicapper's results than they think.

That was proabbly the case with Beyer in the late 70s. Maybe the game changed a little, but he probably wasn't as good as his 50K year or as bad as his subsequent year.