Tiz the Law

[dilanesp]

He took another step forward.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

He took another step forward.

He did. Where I’m at you can’t help routing for this horse and the people involved. So, there’s a bias involved. But that race today, at that distance left little doubt. He’s a serious race horse. No wonder they wanted the Belmont usual distance. He was just getting started when Manny put the whip down. He looks over his shoulder and knows he doesn’t have to reach for any more. Gas Left in the tank. From the interview I guess Tagg really looks at the Dam side. He hit the jackpot with Tiznow line. Then he looks at the next horse after which is Tizfiz who also won in Stakes. But even with that it’s like they hit the Lotto twice with NY Breds. I mean, those don’t come along every day and they got both of them . I’m not sure but I think the last NY Bred to win the Travers was Thunder Rumble .

[f2tornado]

Even money at this hour in final future pool wager. Crazy considering there are 24 betting interests. Was down to 4/5 immediately after the Travers. We might have our first odds-on Derby runner in a long time. Maybe since 1979 Spectacular Bid at 3/5? He toyed with that Travers field.

[jay68802]

Feeling pretty good right now. Got $20 on Honor A.P. in future pool 1 at 25/1, and Tiz in Pool 2 at 8/1.

[classhandicapper]

Not to rain on the Tiz the Law parade a bit, but the Travers is usually made up horses that have won a major Derby prep, a Triple Crown race, or run impressively enough in them to warrant a try. This Travers was Tiz The Law and a bunch of late developing Grade 3 horses hoping to break out. None of them broke out. Uncle Chuck disappointed.

None of which is to say he wasn't terrific, but it's useful to keep the qualitative difference in mind. This was not the typical Travers field that he crushed.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Not to rain on the Tiz the Law parade a bit, but the Travers is usually made up horses that have won a major Derby prep, a Triple Crown race, or run impressively enough in them to warrant a try. This Travers was Tiz The Law and a bunch of late developing Grade 3 horses hoping to break out. None of them broke out. Uncle Chuck disappointed.

None of which is to say he wasn't terrific, but it's useful to keep the qualitative difference in mind. This was not the typical Travers field that he crushed.

Who is left other than Honor AP to challenge him. Nobody! Right now the three year old crop is awful.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by zico20

Who is left other than Honor AP to challenge him. Nobody! Right now the three year old crop is awful.

Art Collector runs today.

I have no problem with Tiz the Law. He ran huge.

My point was only that when you think of a horses crushing the Travers you are generally thinking he must have been a monste (which is what people seem to think based on what I am seeing on Twitter and in articles). I just wanted to point out that this wasn't the typical Travers. It was a weaker group because some of the best 3yos dropped out with injuries and others didn't show up because they are taking different paths to the Ky Derby which is still the biggest "prize" and unlike other years still to come.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Art Collector runs today.

I have no problem with Tiz the Law. He ran huge.

My point was only that when you think of a horses crushing the Travers you are generally thinking he must have been a monste (which is what people seem to think based on what I am seeing on Twitter and in articles). I just wanted to point out that this wasn't the typical Travers. It was a weaker group because some of the best 3yos dropped out with injuries and others didn't show up because they are taking different paths to the Ky Derby which is still the biggest "prize" and unlike other years still to come.

It wasnt just that he won, it was the final time. It wasnt in arrogates world but it was lengths better than anything I think in this crop.

He is 3/5 to win the Derby but probably 7/5 to win the modified triple crown.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

It wasnt just that he won, it was the final time. It wasnt in arrogates world but it was lengths better than anything I think in this crop.

He is 3/5 to win the Derby but probably 7/5 to win the modified triple crown.

My only concern with him is that he drifted out in the stretch badly then drifted in. He needs to run in a straight line, other than that, he was flawless.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

It wasnt just that he won, it was the final time. It wasnt in arrogates world but it was lengths better than anything I think in this crop.

He is 3/5 to win the Derby but probably 7/5 to win the modified triple crown.

I'm not commenting on his chances in the Derby.

I'm commenting on the performance.

I think the time and the quality of competition are somewhat related to each other.

Beyer gave him a 109. That stands out in this group of 3yos so far. So he's a clear favorite. But I could see him backing off that figure in a field that contains Honor AP, Art Collector, Authentic, NY Traffic, Thousand Words etc.. when he'll have to work a lot harder than he did in what was imo a below par Travers group.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Feeling pretty good right now. Got $20 on Honor A.P. in future pool 1 at 25/1, and Tiz in Pool 2 at 8/1.

very nice


A race like the Derby with a larger field, and more talented rivals, can always have more randomness, and more opportunity for jockey error.


The Tiz the Law that we saw in the Travers yesterday, looks like he's unaffected by pace, and can proactively take over a race with a strong response and fast final time.


I thought Uncle Chuck had a real chance of running a huge race and contending for the win.
Uncle Chuck didn't fire, and in hindsight the Travers wasn't competitive, and didn't feature a very hot pace.

[jay68802]

Agree with Class on this race, about the competition. Thought Uncle Chuck fired, was exactly where I thought he would be, and the distance was a problem. Was the big question before the race, the distance for Uncle Chuck. Tiz did what should have done, won the race. Next time he runs, he gets his test.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm not commenting on his chances in the Derby.

I'm commenting on the performance.

I think the time and the quality of competition are somewhat related to each other.

Beyer gave him a 109. That stands out in this group of 3yos so far. So he's a clear favorite. But I could see him backing off that figure in a field that contains Honor AP, Art Collector, Authentic, NY Traffic, Thousand Words etc.. when he'll have to work a lot harder than he did in what was imo a below par Travers group.

I know you were not, that is why the sentence at the end was in a separate paragraph.

Or is it you cant quote someone else and then add an additional thought?

[SharpCat]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

We might have our first odds-on Derby runner in a long time. Maybe since 1979 Spectacular Bid at 3/5?

Arazi 4/5 in 1992 was the last odds on favorite in the Derby. The only horse under 2-1 since then was Point Given who went off at 9/5.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I know you were not, that is why the sentence at the end was in a separate paragraph.

Or is it you cant quote someone else and then add an additional thought?

I misunderstood.

I was just trying to clarify my own thinking in case people misunderstood me.

I'm not trying to make a case against him. I'm trying to make the case that it was big effort but probably not as big as the hype.