Longshots are the Ticket to Success

[boxcar]

Hi, folks, my name is "Boxcar", and I'm a retired pony player of 30+ years. I haven't posted "over here" (as opposed to "over there" on the Off Topic Forum) for quite a while. But once in a while someone from "over here", out of curiosity, takes a trip "over there" to see what's going on, and is disappointed or even dismayed by what he finds. And sometimes the question is raised as to why so many of us "over there" don't post "over here" since this is a horse racing forum. So, since this is the holiday season and a time for giving, I'm going to give a gift to everyone "over here" that I hope will keep on giving for some time to come.

My personal ticket to success, as a turf investor, involved quite a bit of longshot play. I spent considerable time analyzing and profiling longshot winners to see if there were any common denominators among them. And sure enough, I discovered that the public was a sucker for certain kinds of bets, and shied away from other types of horses. It was on this latter group of ponies that I concentrated my attention. Without any further ado, let's jump right into the first method of play.

This particular method I call the LW or Lowest Weight method. This method actually involves a few trainer maneuvers. And herein lies its strength because as the name of the method implies, the trainer who is going all out today with his charge will have excerised all his "weight off" options, of which there are three. He does this to get his charge in with a very low impost. To qualify on this play, the trainer must have done the following:

1.) Dropped his horse in class or price last start.

2.) Horse's entered price today must be below the top price stipulated in the race conditions.

3.) Horse must have a bug boy aboard.

4.) Horse's impost today must be the lowest in his current chart.

5.) Horse must have at least three races in his current chart.

Very simple rules, and easy to spot as well -- all of which makes for a great spot play, especially if you're playing multiple tracks, as I often did. Now for some clarification points.

There are two reasons why this method can pay off handsomely The astute reader will notice at once that the horse does not have to be dropping in class today. This means he can be entered right back at his last race class or even higher! This maneuver, in and of itself, turns the betting public off a well meant horse. The public loves horses who are dropping in class today. Always remember this. As a turf speculator, however, you need to learn to like horses who aren't dropping today. Do not be surprised or taken aback when you see that this kind of horse is actually moving up a bit today in class. If such a horse qualifies, is reasonably sharp, wasn't overtaxed in its last race, etc., jump in with both hands.

The second reason why this play can pull in some hefty winners is because the crowd, generally, shies away from bug boys -- unless they're really hot.
In most cases, however, the trainer will put up a 7 or 10 lb. bug boy, so this will certainly be a price-enhancing move in most cases.

Next, play must be restricted to claiming races or optional claiming. If the latter, then the horse must entered to be claimed.

Players who use this method will soon discover that most of their plays will be found in maiden claiming races conditioned for fillies and mares or just fillies.
This makes sense because trainers are more likely to be more weight-conscious with the girls -- most espeically non-winners.

This is the method. How much will these kinds of horses pay? Usually anywhere from 15-1 up. It's a very good longshot play.

The Best to All,
Boxcar

[dav4463]

Do you have any records on the number of plays per week at four or five tracks per day and results? I love longshot methods!

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by dav4463

Do you have any records on the number of plays per week at four or five tracks per day and results? I love longshot methods!

Hi, Dave, how the heck are ya?

You know, I actually do...but those records aren't in my possession. I had to move things out of my office and into a storage unit due to a strange shrinking disease that caused my space to get smaller and smaller -- if you know what I mean. But...going from memory, you can expect about 3 or 4 plays a week, if you play 4 tracks or so a day. You can expect slightly more once the 2 y.o.s start running later in the year.

My betting records, which are also in storage, were based on all my plays, so I don't recall the specific breakdown for each method I employed. Sorry I can't be of more help. But I can tell you that many of the winners were in the $50. to $60. range, especially if they were moving up today in class.

The prudent thing to do is to chart the method for awhile to see how it does. Then go from there.

Take care,
Boxcar

[dav4463]

Doing very well !

When I check my records over a 50 or 100 race segment that shows a profit, the profit almost always is result of two or three big longhots. It seems like 95% of the time I'm just spinning wheels! The normal progression is : Winning....losing....winning...losing...losing.... losing....I was about even, now falling behind...then....LONGSHOT HIT !!! I toy with the idea of only playing longshots, but then I see the solid $6.80 winner I picked on top and want to enjoy cashing a ticket without having to wait a week or so to win something! The exacta bet strategy I'm using depends on longshots so the bankroll is like a roller coaster. Trifectas and superfectas "on paper" are showing solid profits, but I really can't afford the cost of expensive tri/super losing tickets before hitting that solid price. The big hit trifectas and superfectas are still no guarantee even though I hit a few on paper.

[twindouble]

Boxcar; Why the retirement from playing the horses after 30+years? I've been at it for 45 years I've slowed down some but I can't foresee myself hanging it up. From what I read in your post, maybe you shouldn't have quit. I try to steer clear of the 2yo's though, to risky for me.

[Doug3312]

Can someone tell me what impost means?

[Overlay]

Originally Posted by Doug3312

Can someone tell me what impost means?

That's the weight the horse is carrying.

[grahors]

Probably a dumb question, but how does one spot a Bug Boy. I use Bris. Are they listed or marked somewhere? Or, just know ones track?

[GaryG]

Originally Posted by grahors

Probably a dumb question, but how does one spot a Bug Boy. I use Bris. Are they listed or marked somewhere? Or, just know ones track?

There is an asterisk next to the weight carried in all pp's, it is standard. That is where the term "bug boy" came from.
Box: Stay away from those atheists "over there"....they will drive you nuts. I guess the Great Commission includes everyone, but those nuts make it hard to be civil. Sure glad I'm not the only old guy around here. The term "impost" dates you pretty good! Keep up the good work

[Overlay]

The Daily Racing Form includes a small number next to the jockey's name in the past performances to indicate the amount of any apprentice allowance.

http://www.drf.com/flash/drf_pp_tutorial.html

[BIG RED]

Boxcar, everytime I drop ' over there ' I get yelled at

Question on #4. Do you mean it can be tied for the lowest weight in its chart, or has to be a new low? And is this restricted to just the two types of races, claiming and optional?

I have a few boxes of forms I can go thru rather quickly during my free time, I just look for the Bugs. I will check this out after next week-end and post what I found, as long as I do the ' class ' right.

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by BIG RED

Boxcar, everytime I drop ' over there ' I get yelled at

I get "yelled at" so often "over there" that the rare times I'm not, I begin to feel unloved, unwanted, unappreciated and ignored.

In fact, when I came "over here", I had to remove my avatar, but forgot to remove my tagline from my initial post. After I rememberd and went back to edit my preferences, I was disappointed that PA didn't rake me over the coals in an email for my oversight.

Question on #4. Do you mean it can be tied for the lowest weight in its chart, or has to be a new low?

It has to be a new low, hence the name of the angle -- Lowest Weight. Obviously, the strength of the angle lies in the trainer's intentions, since he's done all that he can do to get weight off the animal, and the horse's weight is the lowest in his current chart. In other words, the horse is "in with a feather" compared to his recent races.

And is this restricted to just the two types of races, claiming and optional?

Correcto. Why? Because in non-claiming races, you lose the third option, i.e. either entering the animal below the top price stipulated in a straight claimer, or in the case of optional claiming, getting weight off by entering him to be claimed.

I have a few boxes of forms I can go thru rather quickly during my free time, I just look for the Bugs. I will check this out after next week-end and post what I found, as long as I do the ' class ' right.

Great. I'd be curious as to what you find. This was one of my favorites that I incorporated into a rather comprehensive methodology.

Take care, Big Red, and stay out of trouble "over here".

Boxcar

[kenwoodallpromos]

Thank you for a very good idea!

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by twindouble

Boxcar; Why the retirement from playing the horses after 30+years?

Change of scenery. Change of diet. Personal growth. Priorities. Better stewardship of my limited time on this planet. Just...time to move on.

Also, I made enough bucks at the game to call it quits. So, why not quit while I'm ahead? Besides, my goal in life was never to die the richest man in the graveyard or the one with the most toys.

And in addition to all this, I left a little legacy behind by personally tutoring a couple of people in my methodology. So, the methodology lives on, and whatever they want to do with it in the future is entirely up to them.

From what I read in your post, maybe you shouldn't have quit.

I have no regrets. It was the right decision for me.

I try to steer clear of the 2yo's though, to risky for me.

I never really had any unusual problems with them. I handicapped them pretty much the same way I did older animals -- "weighting", perhaps, the factors of Form, Trainer Intentions, and my "Pinpoint" Angles, a little more than in other races. But other than that, my approach was fundamentally the same.

Boxcar

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by kenwoodallpromos

Thank you for a very good idea!

You're very welcome. I hope you'll find it profitable.

Of course, handicapping or the application of any handicapping angle or methods work best when they're incorporated into a a more comprehensive approach and some good ol' fashioned common sense is also applied. The core handicapping philosophy that I subscribed to and applied dilgently was: There is no such thing as an isolated handicapping factor -- that all factors are related to one another, especially to the Form Factor.

The moral to this little saga: Use some common sense. See if a method like this makes sense within your own handicapping framework. For example, if a qualified horse is clearly over his head in class, pass on him. Or if he obviously doesnt' enjoy good current form. Take another pass.

Take care,
Boxcar