Most Important Factors in Handicapping Turf Races

[PressThePace]

Years ago, I started specializing, if you will, in high level claiming races and open allowances...on the dirt. I would consider my handicapping skills on the dirt to be above average. However, the turf is an entirely different animal for me. I still do not play turf races, but the payoffs are too juicy to ignore entirely. I've started looking at class as a primary factor in addition to looking for lone speed in races where other entries do not show a recent ability to pass runners in the stretch.

I'm interested in hearing the thoughts of others on this subject, as it would surely behoove all of us to learn more about handicapping these contests.

P.S. ---I'm not interested in maiden races or low-level events on the grass.

[DRIVEWAY]

Rail Setting- zero to 120 feet

Early, Middle, Late Meeting weather variables

Depth Of Grass - when is the grass cut

Consistency Of Turf - Brown out areas and hard ground

Track variables such as tightness of turns, hills, banking, runup distance

Does the track change the runup distance as the rail setting changes, starting area surface get chewed up etc.

Once you know and understand the general impact of the above variables then assess the impact on each horse and the assigned post.

Maybe the grass is greener on the dirt.

[no breathalyzer]

trip handicappers love to bet the grass.. the problem with them is they don't understand trip doesn't matter when the horse is too slow anyways. post matters more on grass. and i only bet horses that have a great turn of foot and proven they have that 11sec flat gear available and can finish if given the rite situation .also class matters much more on the lawn

[thaskalos]

The only thing I can say with certainty about turf handicapping is that the importance of the fast last fraction has been greatly exaggerated.

[no breathalyzer]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The only thing I can say with certainty about turf handicapping is that the importance of the fast last fraction has been greatly exaggerated.

why do you say that? can you please explain?

while i don't think its the only factor its still of very importance

[pandy]

Conditioning is important because you need stamina, so lack of recent workouts or any sign of declining form are red flags. Otherwise, most winning horses have this in common, Competitive Speed Figures, Fits well on class, has a strong late kick, has a good turf trainer.

[PressThePace]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The only thing I can say with certainty about turf handicapping is that the importance of the fast last fraction has been greatly exaggerated.

I've come to feel the same way. Often in high level turf routes, most of the field shows an impressive last fraction.

[pandy]

Not all the turf races are won by horses with the best late pace figures. Sometimes, just like dirt races, turf races are won by the horse with the best early pace figures. But, horses with the best late pace figures win more turf races than they win dirt races. I tested this for almost a year in New York and I was amazed at not only how many turf races are won by either the horse with the best late pace figure or second best late pace figure, but how often they win as longshots. The first time I tested this the top ranked late pace figure horse showed a substantial profit over a 6 month period. This would never happen on dirt. I wasn't using last quarter, I used my Kick rating, which is a longer segment of the race, but the old Sartin 3rd Fraction works well, too.

[Tom]

General statements cost you $$$.
At Belmont, Jun-July, Main Turf course, FR3=1 wins 30%, WP 70%, 1.30 ROI for turf routes.
Inner routes, 17% win, .92 roi.

If you are playing exacta on the main turf course, you better be putting the top third fraction horses in them.

This is why I prefer small samples - play what is happening now.

At WO, 14% winners with a .86 roi.
At PRX, 20% winners, 60% WP, but roi is only .61

you not only need to know what is winning, how it is paying. Horse that are great bets to fill out exacta might be terrible win bets.

First think i do every day I play is run the HTR Robot and see where the opportunities are. I run the last two or three months and my report list performance on a day by day basis so I can when a short term trend has ended.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The only thing I can say with certainty about turf handicapping is that the importance of the fast last fraction has been greatly exaggerated.

Put me down for a major dissent!

[EMD4ME]

Knowing how many turf routes were run on a certain day is key. Many figures are complete guesses as there is only 1 turf route on some cards.

Knowing exactly who was in that specific race is key, what form was each contender in and more importantly how did each horse's trip affect the outcome of the race.

Detailed trip notes are essential. Accurate final kick #'s are essential.

Visual handicapping is more essential. I can not feel confident betting a turf race without watching replays for all horses involved, even more so than on dirt.

My 2 cents.

[davew]

I feel the higher 'class' horses have an edge


class is hard to define, but includes the ability for a 'spurt' of speed when needed to discourage the others...

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Put me down for a major dissent!

I know how good you are on the turf, Andy...but those last fractions just don't work for me. I've blended them into the mix in every conceivable way...and the turf is still the weakest link of my game. Luckily...I can still find some dirt races to wager on.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Knowing how many turf routes were run on a certain day is key. Many figures are complete guesses as there is only 1 turf route on some cards.

Knowing exactly who was in that specific race is key, what form was each contender in and more importantly how did each horse's trip affect the outcome of the race.

Detailed trip notes are essential. Accurate final kick #'s are essential.

Visual handicapping is more essential. I can not feel confident betting a turf race without watching replays for all horses involved, even more so than on dirt.

My 2 cents.

Your point about trip handicapping, very much a key and probably the most frustrating thing about betting turf races is those tough trips, especially getting blocked along the inside. But good trip handicappers can take notes and get some good horses to watch.

[Secondbest]

On turf horses can move up in class more easily than dirt. I believe this is because of the nature of turf racing Big fields different courses At Belmont the inner and the main are not the same in the way they run yetmost people bet them as if they were.
I agree with Tom and Emd.