Longshots are the Ticket to Success

[twindouble]

Originally Posted by toetoe

Boxcar,

Well put. I still maintain that almost canceling out the foolishness of the moneyed majority in wagering is the onerous, borderline usurious takeout. Even the wisest bettor sometimes makes foolish decisions, thereby failing to capitalize on the public's faults, but the tracks never fail to apply the takeout, do they? I have some ideas wherein they MIGHT forgo the takeout, as a well conceived plan, but that's a knotty problem for another thread.

What gets me is you and Boxcar talk like your not part of the "Public." Does that mean I can say, I'm not concidered the public when I'm on a winning streak and your on a losing one?

[JackS]

"General Consensus" Might be a better term then "The Public" since were all members of the Public. Still, "The Public" as a generic term is understood.

[how cliche]

I'm gonna past post an angle from yesterday, the final day at GGF. While not universal, I think it fits into the angular train of thought this thread is endorsing.

For several meets I've noticed trainer Armando Lage enjoys winning with his final runner of a given meet, on closing days, at a big number. In '03 Bourgesoisie won and paid $56.80 to close the BM meet. In '04 Bye Bye Birdie closed the year and paid $13.60. Yesterday, Lage's final runner was part of an uncoupled entry. Quiet Rumor, as the longer price of the two, closed the GGF meet for him and paid $90.60. In cases like these it's a very obscure and seldomly used angle. The only reason we're rewarded is for paying attention to a not normally tracked & somewhat rare handicapping factor.

[toetoe]

TD,

Yes, that is true, in a specific sense. All those specific cases add up to the general sense, in which, according to boxcar's parameters, payoffs minus all monies wagered, good and bad, are greater than zero. I think boxcar agrees when I say that we don't advocate blithely underestimating the public.

Keep an eye out for the charges of one Jose Luis Angulo, literally Joseph Angle. I call him my hunch trainer, as when I'm tearing up my tickets on his steeds, I hunch my shoulders and say, "Maybe next time."

[twindouble]

Originally Posted by toetoe

TD,

Yes, that is true, in a specific sense. All those specific cases add up to the general sense, in which, according to boxcar's parameters, payoffs minus all monies wagered, good and bad, are greater than zero. I think boxcar agrees when I say that we don't advocate blithely underestimating the public.

Keep an eye out for the charges of one Jose Luis Angulo, literally Joseph Angle. I call him my hunch trainer, as when I'm tearing up my tickets on his steeds, I hunch my shoulders and say, "Maybe next time."

Thanks toe, I understood. Just having some fun, in a much better mood today than yesterday. Get this guys, my 30 yo son for the first time sence his high scholl years is bringing home his girl for us to meet for the holidays. Chip off the old block, spent last weekend in Las Vegas, made a couple grand.

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by twindouble

What gets me is you and Boxcar talk like your not part of the "Public." Does that mean I can say, I'm not concidered the public when I'm on a winning streak and your on a losing one?

It goes without saying that every bettor makes up a part of the "public". (I think I even made this point earlier on.) But a bettor, at the same time, is competing against all other bettors who are participating in the same pool as he is. In this sense, then, a bettor is distinct from the ones against whom he's competing. From this bettor's perspective his competition is the "public". And from the perspective of the "public', any betting faction who is in disagreement with any other given betting faction in the same pool is the public. In short: the term "public" is really a methaphor used in place of the term "competition".

Boxcar

[Tom]

Bump

[boxcar]

The two odds angles we’ll take up are so powerful that these can be used on a stand-alone basis with lightly raced maidens. In other types of situations, however, I preferred to use them in conjunction with other supporting angles. So, right here might be a good place to briefly discuss why maiden races, generally, offer so many long shot opportunities, and why, specifically, lightly raced maidens can often prove to be lucrative investments under some circumstances.

I believe there’s an unwritten law in the game that allows racing officials (for better or for worse) to cut trainers of maidens a little bit more slack than they would with horses who are winners. But when we stop to think of it, this makes some sense. For one thing, a maiden is being sent out to do something that it has never done before, i.e. win!

For another thing first time starters (FTS) are additionally “cursed” with another whammy by also being asked to run in a race – something they’ve never done before either. So, in their first start, they are essentially learning how to race. Of course, some trainers have a knack for getting a FTS to win at first asking. And, of course, the conditioner’s job is made easier if his charge is blessed with a bit of precociousness.

But if the dynamic duo of a gifted trainer and exceptionally talented horse simply isn’t there (which is the case most of the time), then we should look at maiden races, generally, as being “trial runs”. for these young, untried, untested, sometimes unruly or even neurotic maidens. Just like new automobiles need to be broken in carefully, likewise maiden races are the media trainers use to “break in” their youngsters.

In addition to all this, a smart trainer will not want to push a young maiden too hard, too early or too often, especially when he knows that his horse has some idiosyncrasies that need to be addressed before going all out for the winner’s circle. Asking too much of youngster too soon could ruin him forever.

From a bettor’s perspective, a smart turf investor can take advantage of this kind of situation by paying especially close attention to lightly raced maidens – which for the purpose of these odds angles (and as stated previously in this thread) would include maidens with at least one start but no more than three starts in their chart. In fact, if you go back and study all the example angle horses I have given thus far in this thread, you will find that the large majority of them came out of maiden races and many of them were “lightly raced”.

Some years ago, a student of mine was so impressed by the sheer number of long shot winners who emerged from this group particularly, and from maiden races, generally, that he vowed to become a maiden race “specialist”. He swore that he would look no farther for his long shot winners than in maiden races – most especially from the low class claimers. (And the last I heard from him, he was doing quite well for himself.) And while my own philosophy was to try capitalize on every viable wagering opportunity, regardless of the type of race, I would, nonetheless, be hard-pressed to question his decision.

The two angles we’ll now look at were also found in another horse’s chart that we studied. It might interest you to know that Knight To A King (the Special A angle horse) discussed in message 79 of this thread also had these two angles. I didn’t mention it at the time because it’s not prudent to throw too much at one time to people. Too many angles at one time will only serve to confuse most people.

Another reason, I didn’t mention these two angles is because one of them is a variation to the FOT angle. This, too, would have confused many, I think. But in message 79, I wrote in part:

But here's the kicker: 11-1 on these kinds of plays is a relatively modest price.

The presence of these two odds angles accounted for that “modest” payoff, which nevertheless actually made this horse an excellent investment. The reason for this is because all the TI-type angles combined to validate one another. When this happens, I consider such horses to have a strong Validation Principle (VP) present in their charts. The stronger the VP is, the clearer the picture of everything that has been going on with the horse leading into today’s race becomes. And the clearer that picture is, the more confidently you can bet. It’s that simple.

It would be beneficial to everyone who has been following these discussion on racing angles, therefore, to go back to briefly revisit message 79 to better understand the angle dynamics in that horse’s chart before visiting the angle horse who ran recently in Tampa. Here is what I wrote in part pertaining to that older race:

“Knight To A King was conditioned by Joesph Tobin, and his trainer entered him today at the top price of 5K off his 2RB wherein his entered price back on 13Jun97 was $4,500. Here I'll partially reproduce the pertinent data from this horse's last two:”

The price/class levels are important to understand. This animal qualified on the Up in Class-Price Down Angle (UCPD). In his July 18th race, he was bumped up in class off his race of 13Jun97, and his tote odds were down today! This combination constitutes the unusual, the unexpected, the so-unlike-the public’s betting routine. In fact, KTAK was moving up today on two levels: price/class and moving up in the conditions, e.g. running today in a N3Y off of his previous N2Y race. Recall what I wrote earlier in this thread: Trainers can make very subtle price class shifts; therefore, one must learn to develop eagle-eyed skills in spotting these subtle moves.

And, naturally, KTAK qualified on the FOT angle – with 11-1 being well below his previous odds of 47-1. Since the “norm” in this game is for horses to drop in price today when dropping in class, then inquisitive minds must ask: Why the precipitous drop today – off two consecutive races in which the horse kept moving up in class? And off his LR effort when he was well beaten? It doesn’t make any sense – except to angle player like myself.

Now, let’s fast forward to 10Jan06 at Tampa Bay in the nightcap. For those so inclined, this race is recent enough to d/l from your favorite data vendor for study purposes; therefore, I’m not going to spend a lot of time typing out details as I’ve done on previous occasions.

As you can see, this race was conditioned 3 y.o. Maiden Filles going 7 panels, running for a tag of 25K. My sharp-eyed buddy who wrote recently was anticipating two odds angles: The UCPD and another angle which is a variation to the FOT, which I call the SFO or Special “Fifty” Off Angle. How this angle differs from the FOT is that the horse’s odds drop today does not meet the minimum 50% below the recent high. The odds drop in fact is only Forty percent below (40%).

Many moons ago, I discovered that this type of odds angle horse also makes good many times, so I added this angle to my repertoire. In addition to these odds angles, naturally the horse must be moving up in class today, and he must have finished out of the money in his LR – the farther back, the better! Remember: With these lightly raced maidens, oftentimes their races are merely “tune-ups” or training races for better things to come in the seeable future. Therefore, we shouldn’t necessarily be expecting bang-up performances from them.

In this race, we have the picture-perfect specimen in the 6 horse Cohiba’s Wildchild. Please note that she finished well up the track in her debut race on 18Dec05. In fact, she ran a very dull-looking race, and earned a very low SR to boot. To further add insult to injury, she is trained by, yet, another low profile trainer – a 5%er for the year 2005. And the “final nail in her coffin” (so thought the public) was that she moving up sharply from a $7,500. MC to a $25,000. MC. (Horrors of horrors!) Yet, despite all these “negatives”, someone sent this filly off at 19-1 off of her previous race’s odds of 35-1. What in the world is going on here? Is this normal? Is this the expected? Of course not!

Results: This little gal just nosed out the 8/5 fav Formally Jay to pay $40.40. FJ I will discuss briefly in the new Form thread. Unlike a lot of the favorites we have seen in previous race examples, this latter horse was definitely a threat in this race. Later on, I’ll explain why. And why I would have backed both horses: The winner to win, and boxed both in the X, which paid a very nifty $118.80! This race presented great investment opportunities.

Boxcar

[boxcar]

Before jumping in to the next race, it might be a good idea to succinctly review the parameters for horses with an “ultimate form indicator” (UFI) in its chart.

• LR must have been an easy race
• LR.SR >= 2RB or 3RB.SR, depending on which race forms the basis to the performance angle.
• Horse must have a performance angle in its chart.

Previously we looked briefly at the A angle, which is a 2RB performance angle when we studied the Special A method of play. The parameters for this angle are:

• LR was an easy race.
• LR.OMF
• 2RB.IMF
• 2RB.DATE <= 60 days from Today’s Race Date (generally speaking)

Naturally, not all A angle horses make good. When these angle horses fail to win, they become Beaten A (BA) angle types. In this scenario, the race that forms the basis to this angle is the 3RB, and the parameters would look like this:

• LR.FP* > 1
• 2RB.OMF
• 3RB.IMF
• 3RB.DATE <= 75 days (generally speaking)

(*Finish Position)

Likewise, not all UFI form cycle horses win. When they lose, they become a Beaten UFI type (BUFI). Like the BA angle above, the race that forms the basis to this form cycle angle is also the 3RB, and the parameters would look like this:

• LR.FP > 1
• LR was relatively easy race (in most circumstances save for one)
• 2RB.OMF
• 3RB has a PA**
• 3RB.DATE <= 75 days (generally speaking)

(**Performance Angle)

Now, that this is all clear as mud to everyone, it might be a good idea to present a picture which is worth those proverbial 1,000 words. In fact, there’s a race wherein we can see two pictures of BUFI horses. For those of you who are closely following these angle discussions, it would be a very good idea to get your hands on the pp charts so that you can see these things clearly for yourselves.

The 9th at the Big A on 14Jan06 for 4 y.o. & UP Maidens foaled in NY State, going 5-1/2 furlongs. 11 started.

In other words, we’re looking at, yet, another el cheapo maiden race for older horses who have never won – a race with a bunch of classless wonders entered. (My kinda race!)

Let’s first look at the 9 horse – Incorporatetime – a failed winner after 16 starts. But this animal’s chart is loaded with performance angles; however, I’m just going to quickly comment on the ones we’ve covered here. This is a BA angle horse who lost last time out in a race that certainly was not a taxing effort. In that LR, he showed good early speed (ES) to the SC, but started to gradually lose ground at the ½ mi. pole to finish out of the money. According to TSN’s SRs, the horse’s last three, beginning with the 3RB looked like this: 70 – 72 – 65. His performance angle coupled with his SR pattern qualified him for the BUFI angle. His ML was 8-1, and he was sent off at 9/2 -- probably because his trainer has been “hot” for this meet winning at a 29% clip.

This was a very dangerous horse just on the Form Factor alone. This was a horse that was very likely to demonstrate good improvement today over his LR performance.

Then we come to the 6 horse Treated Wood – another classless wonder with 18 lifetime starts to his dismal credit. As many of you might recall, I’ve stated previously on this thread that was always partial to horses who aren’t dropping in class today – but even more so to horses with the DCLS or the BW-1 trainer maneuver angle in its chart. As you can see, this horse was dropped last start off an unrestricted MSW race. While I like for such angle horses to show an improved SR over its previous race, in TW’s case, the lower LR.SR is acceptable due to his BA angle and the fact that he, too, was a BUFI horse. Beginning with his 3RB, his SRs looked like this: 62-68-65.

In addition, he looked like he was given a stiff workout in his LR, running close up to the leader for a ½ mi., then fading back. His LR, too, was an easy one. If we are to believe the pp data, he worked out in about 47:3 for a half. If this pony had this kind of number showing below in his workout line, he would never have been sent off a the price he was.

For me, this affair would have strictly been a two-horse race due to their strong angles and very good form. It would have been between the 6 and 9 -- period. Since both were being sent off at odds that would have provided me with my minimum return (100% net), I would have plunked down my $ on both of them to win, and boxed both in the X.

Results: Treated Wood necked out the 9 to pay a generous $33.40. And Incorporatetime completed the $156.50 exacta. For some strange reason the crowd made a FTS the slight fav. And ironically, the 6 horse trained by another low profile trainer beat out the horse with the hot trainer.

Both of these horses provided reasonable answers to the two questions that I always brought to bear upon race problems. This was particularly true of the winner due to his trainer maneuver angle, whereas the runner up had no such angle in his chart – yet, he was very dangerous on Form.

Boxcar

[boxcar]

I have repeatedly stated that when it comes to handicapping that things unexpected, unorthodox, unusual or subtle in horses’ pp charts are a handicapper’s best friends. Any methodology, therefore, that permits the analyst to spot these kinds of things is worth its weight in gold, since the betting competition will frequently overlook, misunderstand or misinterpret characteristics like these.

Everyone also knows by now that I’m partial to horses who are not dropping in class today, yet have a class/price maneuver in their charts. However, no one should infer from this that class drop-downs today are always price killers. What will generally determine a drop0-down’s price is the subtlety of the performance angles in his chart. For example, a B angle horse (for lack of a better designation) is one who displayed ES in his 2RB, finishing out of the money in that race and in his LR. These horses can pay off megabucks, as can a horse who ran to 2.5 lengths of the winner in the SC in his 3RB (BB3 angle which we looked at on another occasion) and ran out in both subsequent races, or a horse who has a 3RB.IMF (BA angle). In fact, when a BA angle horse has the Double Drop (DD) angle in his chart (i.e. dropped last start and dropping again today), his BA angle becomes a “power” angle because the combination of the two angles is so strong.

Also, as stated previously, whenever a horse has the BW-2 angle in his chart (Before Winning, type 2), this greatly strengthens the DC (Dropping in Class) or DD angle. Once again, here are the parameters, formally, for the BW-2 trainer maneuver angle:

LR.FP > 1
LR.ECP* > Todays.ECP
[2RB, 3RB].ECP > Today’s ECP

(*Entered Class or Price)

Now, here’s another angle to add to your arsenal, if so inclined – the ES or Early Speed Angle, which is a LR performance angle. Here are the parameters:

LR.[1C, 2C, 3C].BL < 3.75
LR.FC.BL > 4

What this means is that for the first three calls of the race the horse must have run no more than 3.5 lengths off the leader at each of these calls, then faded back in the stretch run to, preferably finish at least 4 lengths behind the winner. This angle is very frequently found with the A angle, which is a 2RB performance angle.

With this all behind us, we can now look at the most subtle performance and form cycle angle in my arsenal. You won’t come across these angles too often, but when you do, look out because often the winners pay off in “telephone” numbers. These angles tend to pay very well because they are find their roots in the 4RB, and the public simply doesn’t have much of a clue on how to properly evaluate these kinds of angles.

The performance angle is the BBA or Beaten BA angle. And the form cycle angle that combines with so well with it is the BUFI angle. I’m attaching a portion of the chart to the 1 horse in the 5th at GP on 12Jan06 – Flight To Justice.

Why this horse is a BUFI type is because the SR in the race that completed his BA angle (i.e. the 2RB) was higher than the SR in the race that formed the basis to this angle (i.e. the 4RB). Therefore, at that point in time Flight To Justice was a UFI horse. But after his LR, he became a BUFI horse because he failed to win, his LR was not an overtaxing effort, and his LR.SR was lower than what he earned in his previous race.

In addition to all this, he was an A angle horse, due to his 2RB.IMF and LR.OMF. And even more than this, he had the ES angle in his LR. Please note his beaten lengths off the leader for the first 3 calls of his LR. So much for his performance angles and form cycle.

In terms of his trainer maneuver angles, he had the BW-2, since the class level of his 2RB and 3RB were higher than the price stipulated in today’s condition. Therefore, he had the strong version of the DC angle.

He also had a pinpoint angle in his chart, which I call the Lowest Class (LC) angle. (This angle is a second cousin” to the LW angle.) To qualify on this angle, the top price in today’s race condition must be the lowest in his current chart. As you can see from my attachment, the top price in today’s claimer was 14K – which represents the lowest level that he has run at in his current chart.

The only knock this horse had against him was that he has been away for about 50 days – but everything else in his chart said that he was sharp, was in an excellent form cycle mode, and that the trainer meant business with him today to the presence of the BW-2 and LC angles. At his prevailing odds, he was certainly worthy of a bet.

This pony won going away and rewarded the astute with a generous $94.20 mutuel.

Boxcar

[toetoe]

box,

Regarding the Treated Wood race, I foolishly threw out the horses coming from that Tale Of Wonder race, calling it a negatively key race. How did you rate Hey Tough Guy, the only other runner to show speed in the previous race? Did his FAILURE to fall back work against him? His form was not hidden, but should he get credit for the good effort?

[toetoe]

boxcar,

Not to make it a habit, but can you give me your opinion of a horse in Laurel's 9th on Saturday? That's a long way off, and maybe we can bat it around. The race, an $85,000 stakes for fillies and mares, has several win machines, but the filly that caught my eye is See Alice, a four-year-old that has blossomed since being claimed by Mark Shuman. The first thing that piqued my interest is that she ran at Aq in the race that Grecian Wings freaked. Now, See Alice finished behind Pelham Bay, frevvinsakes, a filly that may never win again, ever. However, every other bad race features trouble, and I'm wondering how she'd stack up as a runner in a "holding" or "forging" pattern. The last consideration is that she could start at a HUGE price. Just my opinion.

[toetoe]

The PP's are available at horse-races.net>Darley>Elusive Quality>Saturday, January 21, Race 9.

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by toetoe

box,

Regarding the Treated Wood race, I foolishly threw out the horses coming from that Tale Of Wonder race, calling it a negatively key race. How did you rate Hey Tough Guy, the only other runner to show speed in the previous race? Did his FAILURE to fall back work against him? His form was not hidden, but should he get credit for the good effort?

Good questions, Toe. Of course, he should get "credit" for those good efforts -- both of them -- his LR and 3RB. But neither giving credit or "hidden" form are really the issues here. The $64. question, especially with a good, obvious form horse like Tough Guy is: What will the probable effect of those good efforts, coupled with his form cycle, be on his condition today. Will those good efforts contribute to his current condition or will they detract from it? Is it likely he will improve or regress today off those good efforts? These are the pertinent, all-important questions. For the benefit of those following this thread closely, I have attached this horse's chart to make it easier to understand what follows.

Firstly, just what performance angles did this gelding have in his chart? Since he finished very close up in his 3RB and was beaten by only 1-1/4 lengths, I would have credited him with a shaded version of the BA angle, which my program would designate with "-BA". Common sense must prevail when we handicap. If this horse had finished 3rd beaten by those many lengths, would we not have credited him with the full blown version of the angle? Furthermore, lengths off the leader almost always trump finish positions.

Then he would have been credited with a rather complex combination angle that involves the manner in which he ran in his LR and 3RB, colupled with an OMF in the 2RB, coupled with his entered price/class today compared to his 2RB. This angle (which I call the C angle), perhaps, we'll study on some other occasion. However, since he didn't qualify on the trainer maneuver part of this angle, then this angle, too, would have been shaded to read: -C.

So, just in terms of these two particular perfomance angles, which can be very powerful when combined, the best TG could do is get credited with a "shaded" version of each.

But this wouldn't have been the main reason why I would have dumped him. The primary reason, believe it or not, would have been his current form cycle! If you look at his last three SRs starting from the 3RB, they are ascending. This particular form cycle mode I've dubbed Progressive Improvement (PI). And in most cases, this is a very positive mode. But in TG's case, it was not! Here's why: Since he ran a bang-up, close up finish in his 3RB (qualifiying him on the -BA angle), and earned an even higher SR in his LR -- which was another close-up, bang-up finish, then with these particular angles in his chart, coupled with his manner of running in both those races, this horse would have been a real threat and very likely to improve further today if his 2RB.SR had been lower than his 3RB.SR. As it was, it was higher. What I like to see with this type of horse, with these particular angles in his chart is a speed rating pattern that looks like this (starting from the 3RB in all cases): 61-59-74; or one that looks like this: 74 -69-71; or even one that looks like this: 74-76-72. But in most cases, the PI angle and its antithetical form cycle which I all Progressive Regression (PR), which occurs when when a horse is in consecutive descending mode (e.g. 74-68-60) -- are the death knell to this kind of horse.

In addtion to all this, that LR.SR of his was the best in his current chart.
Would he improve off that big LR.SR today? Not likely.

Therfore, TG's particular form cycle mode, the specific performance angles in his chart and his high LR.SR all combined in a way to detract from his current form. I would have looked at this horse and said that this is not an animal who is likely to demonstrate any improvement today, let alone -- any great improvement. Horses like this will usually regress in form, as it appears TG did in this race.

Hope this helps. Although, frankly, the Form Factor is the most complex of them all. It takes a good deal of study, practice and experience to be able to effectively deal with performance angles and form cycles.

Boxcar

[gurutoyou]

Boxcar,

I want to say thanks for all this valuable info as I have now just joined because of your posts...just so I can say thank you. Thank you.