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11-16-2017, 01:08 PM
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#1
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math/science # cruncher
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 180
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Race Dates Lost
Interesting stats from the jockey club through 2015 regarding racing dates held at tracks across USA & Canada.
Game is slowly fading boys and girls. People lie, numbers don't
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11-16-2017, 08:53 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Missouri
Posts: 2,190
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AstrosFan
Interesting stats from the jockey club through 2015 regarding racing dates held at tracks across USA & Canada.
Game is slowly fading boys and girls. People lie, numbers don't
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definitely going the wrong way, but askinhaskin would just say raise the takeout to fix the problem
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11-16-2017, 09:27 PM
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#3
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AstrosFan
Interesting stats from the jockey club through 2015 regarding racing dates held at tracks across USA & Canada.
Game is slowly fading boys and girls. People lie, numbers don't
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That isn't a bad thing. We have too much racing. The way to have a better sport is to have a severe contraction, resulting in fewer races with larger fields. Sadly, slots put us on hold before the inevitable contraction. I'd rather we go ahead and face the music and then get on to a smaller and healthier sport.
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11-16-2017, 09:59 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 17
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Looks like there will be fewer race days in Texas next year too...it's not surprising at this point. I'm not sure most of the horsemen even care seeing as TxRc received less than 100 letters opposing the change. If the horsemen/women don't even care then don't see how we can expect bettors and fans to care.
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11-16-2017, 10:25 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fager Fan
That isn't a bad thing. We have too much racing. The way to have a better sport is to have a severe contraction, resulting in fewer races with larger fields. Sadly, slots put us on hold before the inevitable contraction. I'd rather we go ahead and face the music and then get on to a smaller and healthier sport.
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Yep. My only quibble with this is the true central caise of contraction is simulcasting and internet wagering.
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11-17-2017, 02:20 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,957
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AstrosFan
Interesting stats from the jockey club through 2015 regarding racing dates held at tracks across USA & Canada.
Game is slowly fading boys and girls. People lie, numbers don't
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The rate of decline, if I'm reading this correctly, has slowed a bit (668 L5 yrs versus 779 previous 5 yrs), but I suppose the using the raw data, the percentages would be pretty close.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
Yep. My only quibble with this is the true central caise of contraction is simulcasting and internet wagering.
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If by this you mean that simulcasting/internet wagering is allowing players to pick the "higher quality" venues (or even just the tracks they have more success at), I would agree. That's a big part of it, though most states that allow ADW accounts usually skim a portion of the simulcasting/internet handle to support their local racing. (which is a racket, IMHO)
But I also think that contraction has a lot to do with the decline of the economy, and there's just that much less "disposable" money owners have available to spend on a luxury, especially at the lower and local levels of the game.
Contraction may be good for the game, but it's more complicated than just offering fewer races - which does not necessarily equate to larger fields, especially over the long run. The problem needs to be addressed from the rather sticky and complex money side of the equation - where takeout, tax aspects, purses, handle, PR, costs (trainer fees, vet bills, property taxes, etc), competition from other gambling activities, etc., all combine to determine sustainability.
So far, it's apparent that most venues are doing little to "fix" things, though to some degree there may not be a fix.
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11-17-2017, 02:31 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2017
Posts: 83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate
The rate of decline, if I'm reading this correctly, has slowed a bit (668 L5 yrs versus 779 previous 5 yrs), but I suppose the using the raw data, the percentages would be pretty close.
If by this you mean that simulcasting/internet wagering is allowing players to pick the "higher quality" venues (or even just the tracks they have more success at), I would agree. That's a big part of it, though most states that allow ADW accounts usually skim a portion of the simulcasting/internet handle to support their local racing. (which is a racket, IMHO)
But I also think that contraction has a lot to do with the decline of the economy, and there's just that much less "disposable" money owners have available to spend on a luxury, especially at the lower and local levels of the game.
Contraction may be good for the game, but it's more complicated than just offering fewer races - which does not necessarily equate to larger fields, especially over the long run. The problem needs to be addressed from the rather sticky and complex money side of the equation - where takeout, tax aspects, purses, handle, PR, costs (trainer fees, vet bills, property taxes, etc), competition from other gambling activities, etc., all combine to determine sustainability.
So far, it's apparent that most venues are doing little to "fix" things, though to some degree there may not be a fix.
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Hahaha. Casino stocks like Churchill Downs (and it is a casino stock) have never done better. CDI has gone from 50 to 200 in the last few years. WYNN is flourishing and so is Penn National. How is that possible if people have no disposable income? The answer is not that gambling is dying. Horse racing is dying.
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11-17-2017, 01:07 PM
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#8
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self medicated
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,088
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prioress Ply
Hahaha. Casino stocks like Churchill Downs (and it is a casino stock) have never done better. CDI has gone from 50 to 200 in the last few years. WYNN is flourishing and so is Penn National. How is that possible if people have no disposable income? The answer is not that gambling is dying. Horse racing is dying.
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That's the current case but Americans don't plan economically. We seem to think if something is good, more is better. Its like a disease of spending and greed. That's why we are now in debt up to our ears. Credit, student loans and such for citizens and the govt. can't properly run a lemonade stand......I don't care who these political "wing nuts" elect, the money gets pissed away somewhere. The current regime wants tax cuts and somehow the "invisible hand" is going to make up for the loss in revenue. Its been tried multiple times the math never adds up and we end up with more deficit.
The casinos are getting over saturation too. Its just a matter of time before they suffer the same malaise horse racing is feeling. Here, in NY they are already complaining at certain casinos. The revenue is not matching projections. Gee, I wonder why? They are putting these things on practically every street corner... . It all looks great at first until the supply out does the demand.
In "show business" the saying is "always leave them wanting more"........In this day and age its "give it to them til they puke, lose interest or "bill it". Look at the state of affairs all around us, reality is not pretty, so there's a ton of denial going on..........we live in USA.....Fantasy, Disney land. At age 55 at least I may not be around when the rude awakening is on our doorstep.
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11-17-2017, 03:59 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,822
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fager Fan
That isn't a bad thing. We have too much racing. The way to have a better sport is to have a severe contraction, resulting in fewer races with larger fields. Sadly, slots put us on hold before the inevitable contraction. I'd rather we go ahead and face the music and then get on to a smaller and healthier sport.
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It hasn't worked out that way so far. We've had a steady decline in race dates and field size has been largely stagnant because the foal crop has dropped so much. You did say "severe" contraction but I wonder if the economics work anymore no matter how you slice it.
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11-17-2017, 05:20 PM
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#10
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,861
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Losing dates is a good thing.
Racing is diluted today.
We have 80% of the races are pure garbage.
Terrible field across the country, even turf racing has been downgraded to card races for the crap that can't win.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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11-17-2017, 05:36 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 75
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Looks like we gained 7 days in Louisiana.
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11-18-2017, 05:35 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Missouri
Posts: 2,190
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prioress Ply
Hahaha. Casino stocks like Churchill Downs (and it is a casino stock) have never done better. CDI has gone from 50 to 200 in the last few years. WYNN is flourishing and so is Penn National. How is that possible if people have no disposable income? The answer is not that gambling is dying. Horse racing is dying.
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What has a higher takeout rate: slots, texas hold'em, blackjack, horse racing, or sports betting?
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11-18-2017, 09:46 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,957
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prioress Ply
Hahaha. Casino stocks like Churchill Downs (and it is a casino stock) have never done better. CDI has gone from 50 to 200 in the last few years. WYNN is flourishing and so is Penn National. How is that possible if people have no disposable income? The answer is not that gambling is dying. Horse racing is dying.
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Equating stock prices to the economy is hardly conclusive. What you can determine is the Fed's <PRINT> button is working, and that's about all.
There are numerous indications that we've reached "peak gambling", as some casinos, lotteries and poker venues are now reporting stagnating or declining revenue. There's probably still some room for growth in certain areas, as fantasy sports and online gaming becomes more common. And of course, if sports wagering was legalized in more venues, you'd see a mini-boom.
But, if you don't think disposable income is shrinking, especially for those in the lower classes (say, the workers who less than $1K in savings), then you're not paying attention.
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11-18-2017, 09:54 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,552
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate
Equating stock prices to the economy is hardly conclusive. What you can determine is the Fed's <PRINT> button is working, and that's about all.
There are numerous indications that we've reached "peak gambling", as some casinos, lotteries and poker venues are now reporting stagnating or declining revenue. There's probably still some room for growth in certain areas, as fantasy sports and online gaming becomes more common. And of course, if sports wagering was legalized in more venues, you'd see a mini-boom.
But, if you don't think disposable income is shrinking, especially for those in the lower classes (say, the workers who less than $1K in savings), then you're not paying attention.
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But history suggests that gambling is immune to the ills of the economic downturns. Our game supposedly retained its business even during the Great Depression.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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11-19-2017, 01:50 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,957
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
But history suggests that gambling is immune to the ills of the economic downturns. Our game supposedly retained its business even during the Great Depression.
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Not much competition for horse racing back then, except the local numbers games. Drinking, drug use and other costly "bad" habits will always be with us.
I wouldn't say gambling is going extinct, but it'll become less popular in the years ahead. Scrambling to get the basics of food, shelter and clothing is already a stark reality for many - though of course, the average person on this forum is well ahead of the pack, and may not realize that.
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