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Old 02-14-2018, 12:09 PM   #31
BrentT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by horses4courses View Post
2-14-18

GP R5

Admiral Jimmy (3-5 ML)


Pletcher is hard to question when it comes
to putting over winners at Gulfstream (29%)
This horse has been off since September,
is stakes placed, and towers above these
on class. In for a $12500 tag, though,
you can hear the shouts of "CLAIM ME"
from a mile away.

I'll let him win without any of my money on him.
Ugh.....The absolute worse guy in racing to claim from
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Old 02-14-2018, 12:57 PM   #32
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To bad the race is not part of the Rainbow 6.
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Old 02-14-2018, 12:58 PM   #33
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With the purse to claiming price ration so skewed these days, suspicious drops aren't what they used to be.
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Old 02-14-2018, 12:59 PM   #34
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Announcing claims pre-race would do nothing to indicate the soundness of a horse. I remember a race at Parx where R Dutrow shipped a semi-suspicious dropper (named Not For Money) from NY to compete for a jacked up purse on an Owners Appreciation Day. I've never seen the area near the claim box so busy. There were 16 claims in for the horse, who finished a well beaten third in a field of 8. I know all this because we claimed a different horse out of the same race, and were the only ones in the box for him.

It took 8 more races and 4 months before Not For Money won again.

In my opinion, you'd get a better idea of how well meant a claimer is by counting the number of people with the horse in the paddock above the trainer and groom. When I owned horses, whenever I had one in that I thought had a good chance to win, I was at the track, and in the paddock if at all possible. This is by no means reliable, but it's still a hell of a lot better than knowing how many other people were thinking the same way about claiming a horse. That has close to ZERO value.

Last edited by Elliott Sidewater; 02-14-2018 at 01:11 PM. Reason: factual error
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Old 02-15-2018, 11:51 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by letswastemoney View Post
If you know the horse is a bad play, then there's money to be made.

You make money by being smarter than all the other handicappers and you can make a lot of money betting against a vulnerable horse dropping in class, if you truly believe he can be beaten.

No reason to scratch though, unless the horse has a life threatening injury.
This.
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Old 02-16-2018, 01:12 AM   #36
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You can get graded stakes winner Theory for 25k on Sunday at Aqueduct.
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Old 02-16-2018, 07:36 AM   #37
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With the purse to claiming price ration so skewed these days, suspicious drops aren't what they used to be.
Agreed.
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Old 02-16-2018, 01:55 PM   #38
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With the purse to claiming price ration so skewed these days, suspicious drops aren't what they used to be.
I agree.

It changes the math when you can earn so much with the win that you can afford to lose the horse for less than he's worth.
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Old 02-16-2018, 04:25 PM   #39
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Actually my best longshots have been horses who rise up in class, with competitive form and speed figures. It's one of my favorite angles.
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Old 02-16-2018, 04:42 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by Elliott Sidewater View Post
Announcing claims pre-race would do nothing to indicate the soundness of a horse. I remember a race at Parx where R Dutrow shipped a semi-suspicious dropper (named Not For Money) from NY to compete for a jacked up purse on an Owners Appreciation Day. I've never seen the area near the claim box so busy. There were 16 claims in for the horse, who finished a well beaten third in a field of 8. I know all this because we claimed a different horse out of the same race, and were the only ones in the box for him.

It took 8 more races and 4 months before Not For Money won again.

In my opinion, you'd get a better idea of how well meant a claimer is by counting the number of people with the horse in the paddock above the trainer and groom. When I owned horses, whenever I had one in that I thought had a good chance to win, I was at the track, and in the paddock if at all possible. This is by no means reliable, but it's still a hell of a lot better than knowing how many other people were thinking the same way about claiming a horse. That has close to ZERO value.
Trying to follow your logic here so maybe after my questions you can respond. There are many times when we race where I invite a friend or two that never was in the paddock area and wanted to see the interactions with the trainer and the groom and the jock. We recently ran a claimer at Parx last Saturday that finished 4th, the big favorite had a trainer and a groom no more no less, so my question is if you load up the paddock area with people the general consensus is that horse was meant to win that race? You also mention the NY horses coming in, Parx has been a dumping ground for drop down NY horses for ever. Some will tell you due to the strict NY rules and regulations regarding certain race prep medications others will tell you NY is too competitive. I wouldn't take any NY horse coming in even if it looked like the claim of the century. last but not least is the announcement of claimed horses prior to the race going off, that is done in standard breds and wouldn't mean anything in t-breds, soundness cant be assured by a claim or two in on a certain horse. as you know from being in the game, "buyer beware".
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Old 02-16-2018, 05:57 PM   #41
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I love fast horses

You are CERECT

Fri.Feb 16 2018

MAIDEN CLAIMING. 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $21,000. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 122 lbs. Claiming Price $30,000. (02:32 PM) (8)

Last work out on the Winner and where the horse finished off the competition on the turn as soon the leader looked over.

Last edited by dlivery; 02-16-2018 at 05:59 PM. Reason: again posted to the wrong subject
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Old 02-16-2018, 08:47 PM   #42
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In talking with an owner at the NHC he said most owners or trainers are getting rid of the lower quality horses (by dropping them in price) to make room for their two-year olds.

I believe that is what Pletcher is doing

Last edited by HalvOnHorseracing; 02-16-2018 at 08:48 PM.
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Old 02-16-2018, 10:00 PM   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing View Post
In talking with an owner at the NHC he said most owners or trainers are getting rid of the lower quality horses (by dropping them in price) to make room for their two-year olds.

I believe that is what Pletcher is doing



And he got his wish.
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Old 02-17-2018, 09:22 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing View Post
In talking with an owner at the NHC he said most owners or trainers are getting rid of the lower quality horses (by dropping them in price) to make room for their two-year olds.

I believe that is what Pletcher is doing
That maybe one explanation or the one that always comes to mind when the big outfits drop is the horse was running over its head so the trainer could justify their $125 a day rate or the owner thought he had the next Arrogate. Now that the horse has run two or three times the drop is the last step before a significant trainer change to a less competitive track. Since the IRS write offs are pretty solid the days of dropping in December for tax benefits are gone.
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Old 02-18-2018, 11:45 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by cj View Post
You can get graded stakes winner Theory for 25k on Sunday at Aqueduct.
I bet on a horse that won a MCL20000 3 races back, and finished ahead of this Breeders Cup Juvenile runner.

4 horses claimed from 8 horse race, and Theory was not one of them.
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