*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by wolsons

Greg, tested the 1M+ play from 11/20 through today, not too good - 19 plays, 3 wins (all on 11/25), paying 3.40, 6.00, and 9.20. At the NY, KY, and SC tracks, 8 plays, no wins. Didn't use any odds cutoff, just 1M+ play that was also #1 power.

Steve

Thank you, Steve It's looking like my 1M+/TOP POWER legend is more myth than anything, under closer scrutiny.
Like BigFoot-- Those that have seen it--swear it's true . What happened probably--I saw a few big wins--assumed THE BEST. It may turn out that @ 10-1 ML it's a winner.

I already did that with one play--sort of.........the LONE SPEED PLAY. You'll see there are actually TWO Lone speeds. The first one is kinda squirelly LOL. You have to look at them is all I can say, because many time they will be maiden races and the qualifier will be the only horse with a race

Sorry about that. Although it did in fact nail the late exacta @ TUP yesterday...it missed many others.

LONE SPEED-2 is actually very cool, if I say so myself. I mentioned before I subscribe to the Bris Unlimited data--so just like everyone else had to scan computer screens for hours looking for "my plays" That's why I got the idea to program these bad boys. I can go through as many tracks as I want to...the software alerts to high ranking horses, spot plays, possible speed plays, hidden longshots, etc.

Back to LoneSpeed-2. A lot of plays I get the ideas from Taulbot, Ainslie, or the Phillips Racing Newsletter. I'll see something interesting...change it up a bit....test it out...and maybe end up with a good play.

Well this play-- I came up with all by my lonesome. It just makes sense. Whereas Lone Speed is like shooting a BB gun at a herd of caribou (you just might hit one in the eye and bring it down)--Take a look at the genius that is LONE SPEED-2. (like any decent spot play--you won't see many plays)
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[NorCalGreg]

Mentioned quite a few times I use the TIPS software and methodology. Something that occurred to me---don't know why it didn't before, was the Top Trainer & Top Jockey Tips in the Tips program. Out of the blue I realized we have that capability in PLATINUM--by easily sorting the T/J%.

That couldn't be easier. Open a race, sort by TJ%. In the Tips program, the TTT tip, or Top Three Trainer...3 horses, of course- get this tip--and I believe it's over 50% winners overall show this tip.

I checked around--this is pretty good. It's quick and easy. Don't even think about using something like this at a track like Aqueduct...that place is filled with top trainers and jockey combos. Won't work there. Check out the tier two tracks--PARX, TUP, FLX, etc.

Noticed a couple other things, besides a good contender method:

The top three are good for boxing in exactas, provided you have at least 2 at decent odds (over 4-1) ---or the top-2 power are in that group.

Also if the top power horse is also the top TJ%--seems to be an added "power". Might be a spot play right there--test it out for yourself. It did very well at PARX today. Here's the results--these are the top-3 TJ% for Prx race by race:
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[RedMeansGo]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Finally got you Gary Sciacca! Oh yeah...been studying him for awhile. Very hit and miss....mostly miss, if you're playing the guessing game. He fooled me completely with BAVARO--well done sir. I got you this time:

AQUEDUCT 4TH RACE METAURUS 15-1

Okay now that I've calmed down a little bit--caught my breath, let me explain.

First and foremost...this horse needs a rest. It's been a long campaign--this isn't the bush leagues. Mr Sciacca would like to get a win before shutting Metaurus down, obviously. Today looks like the day.

-Rider switch to Franco.

-4 straight IMPROVING speed ratings

-Shows a workout SINCE his last race 3 weeks ago.

-Last race shows an unusual huge late move after falling back

-No major class drop...another good sign

Don't normally wager this way--but I'll put the majority of my bet to Win, with a small SHOW saver.--NCG

*edited to say WELL SHIT now that I see Cice's post

Entered in Race 7 on Thursday at the Big A, yet Franco is up for Persaud?

[NorCalGreg]

Let me put these two FLX horses down before I forget them---both are EARLY/LATE plays

Finger Lakes

6TH THARYIC 6-1

10TH TAKE A BITE 8-1

This is a decent spot play overall---you'll remember it's the horse that had the highest LATE pace--and was either within 1 length--or led-- 1st call last race. Many times it's just a "pace anomaly" --once in a while it points out a dominant horse. That's why we require a big ML price.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by RedMeansGo

Entered in Race 7 on Thursday at the Big A, yet Franco is up for Persaud?

This has turned into a mystery, hasn't it Red?

Let's look at the Persaud horse RISETOTHEOCCASION 12-1

Amazingly...this horse is showing 3 works and this will be his 3rd race--IN 30 DAYS! His last race was YESTERDAY!!!

Okay I made that up--it was 5 days ago--it was a complete throwaway at the wrong distance and surface. Manny Franco was up then--and today he gets off the Sciacca horse METAUARUS for this one?

A deal-breaker for me with Metaurus would have been if he didn't show a workout since his "day at the races" was canceled a week ago--HE DOES show a workout--very good.

Red....someone, help me out. What do you all think is going on here?

I'm positive Franco isn't going to thumb his nose at Sciacca for Persaud's horse. The workout since shows Sciacca is serious about Metaurus getting in the winner's circle.

I think--for whatever reason--Sciacca just decided to use Esquivel here, leaving Franco available for the continuing gamesmanship of Randi Persaud.

Here's a tip-off of the games being played: Risetotheoccasion's workouts seem to be extremely SLOW ...and don't match at all what the horse is doing on the track. Why---if you're running the horse every five days--do you need to further workout the horse---unless it's to show how slow your horse is, and how bad his condition is?

Some of ya will say I'm full of it--that's okay--been told that many times

Here's what I mean though:

[NorCalGreg]

Looking at the Bris Ultimate--it was David Jacobsen that Persaud claimed that horse from- for $16K. D Jake claimed him for 25k...immediately dropped him down to 16k. He seems to do that often. What sort of business model is that?

[green80]

after claiming the horse, Jacobson worked the horse 3 times prior to running him nov 19. Then Persuad claims him for $9000 less than Jacobson paid for him a month ago, doesn't do anything except run him 7 days later going a route of ground on the turf, which doesn't look like his best spot. Now back in 6 days later. I have no idea what they are doing here, how can the horse hold up?

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by green80

after claiming the horse, Jacobson worked the horse 3 times prior to running him nov 19. Then Persuad claims him for $9000 less than Jacobson paid for him a month ago, doesn't do anything except run him 7 days later going a route of ground on the turf, which doesn't look like his best spot. Now back in 6 days later. I have no idea what they are doing here, how can the horse hold up?

LOL....You can't say Jake worked him out too much....he just walked 'em around. Hell...I don't know what to think--we got 36 hours to decide.

BBL....Popeye's chicken time

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Looking at the Bris Ultimate--it was David Jacobsen that Persaud claimed that horse from- for $16K. D Jake claimed him for 25k...immediately dropped him down to 16k. He seems to do that often. What sort of business model is that?

I detest that man (pains me to even write that word to describe him).

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

I detest that man (pains me to even write that word to describe him).

Who? Randi or Jake?

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Who? Randi or Jake?

My bad, sorry. DJ.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Looking at the Bris Ultimate--it was David Jacobsen that Persaud claimed that horse from- for $16K. D Jake claimed him for 25k...immediately dropped him down to 16k. He seems to do that often. What sort of business model is that?

It seems more likely to be a negative when DJ moves a horse up than when he drops one off a claim. I think he's just looking for a quick return on the investment. If he claims a horse for $25K, drops it to $16 and picks up his share of a $40K purse, he makes a quick $15K. You do that often enough and you can make a pretty good living.

If you remember, his father, Buddy, was famous for seeing his horses as just the means to making money. Maybe some of that still in DJ.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing

It seems more likely to be a negative when DJ moves a horse up than when he drops one off a claim. I think he's just looking for a quick return on the investment. If he claims a horse for $25K, drops it to $16 and picks up his share of a $40K purse, he makes a quick $15K. You do that often enough and you can make a pretty good living.

If you remember, his father, Buddy, was famous for seeing his horses as just the means to making money. Maybe some of that still in DJ.

http://offtrackthoroughbreds.com/201...tting-her-out/

There's a happy medium. He is EXTREMELY WEALTHY and doesn't need to treat horses like useless kangaroos to survive.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

http://offtrackthoroughbreds.com/201...tting-her-out/

There's a happy medium. He is EXTREMELY WEALTHY and doesn't need to treat horses like useless kangaroos to survive.

I'm not disagreeing.

[green80]

Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing

It seems more likely to be a negative when DJ moves a horse up than when he drops one off a claim. I think he's just looking for a quick return on the investment. If he claims a horse for $25K, drops it to $16 and picks up his share of a $40K purse, he makes a quick $15K. You do that often enough and you can make a pretty good living.

If you remember, his father, Buddy, was famous for seeing his horses as just the means to making money. Maybe some of that still in DJ.

Only problem is you gotta win, that's the hard part. Not as easy as it looks.