Late changing odds

[Robert Fischer]

most Expected odds behavior is tied into 'gambling' and 'rebates' with obvious horses...


we had this same vibe in the BSF 'LOCK' thread over in the handicapping section.
Obvious horse. No amount of opinion or work is going to offer value on the horse. Everyone lines up to bet a 9/5 morning line and he's heavily favored in multis and then goes off 4/5 ... You get a few players who whine about the late changing odds in such a case, but a portion of other players could see it a mile away...


'Gambling Horses' = either you have a legitimate reason that he won't show up today, or you willingly gamble a lot, to win a little, Or you gamble and hope that he randomly doesn't show up, OR you pass the race /single-in light multis if you had tremendous value elsewhere...

gambling = long-term losing proposition

Not only are you 99.9% sure to lose guessing and gambling, you aren't even going to get the odds you hoped to get on the obvious horses...



UOB = Unexpected Odds Behavior = these are more interesting...

You need a competence in the race to play along. You see a horse significantly taking money, (or significantly not taking money), and you have no clue initially as to 'WHY?'

Is it an owner/ownership-syndicate that is having fun? Is there something else?
It can at times be significant. In general you prefer this model to be moving in the same direction as other significant models, if you planned on making a play.

[FantasticDan]

The 1st today at FL, the Craigville Beach was 16/1 loading into the gate. Race goes off and he's 6/1.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by FantasticDan

The 1st today at FL, the Craigville Beach was 16/1 loading into the gate. Race goes off and he's 6/1.

10/1 on the M/L - And Lost!

[airford1]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

If it were up to you, we'd all still have to go to the track and wait in either the $2, $5 or $100 line.

It's called adapt or die. It's been that way with all things competitive for millenia.

Latuda my friend. No need to be so angry. It's called perception of quality.

[FantasticDan]

The 6th at TBD, the Victim was 19/1 in the gate, 7/1 after the gates open.

Ran like 70/1.

[The_Turf_Monster]

Originally Posted by Redboard

Depends on how close it is to post time. They could be just trying to get the stock up of another entry, then they cancel their bet before the bell.

I've bitten on that cheese several times.

I've never understood why canceling has been allowed on ADW or a machine at the track/OTB outside of a late scratch on that horse after the bet was made. It seems simple that you shouldn't be able to cancel a bet outside of some teller punching in the ticket wrong. It would stop a lot of the bs we see. Those canceled bets at the last second impact every other ticket in the pool that most don't have time to react to

[davew]

Originally Posted by JerryBoyle

You're still going to be frustrated with odds changes no matter when you cut off wagering. Whether it's at 1 minute prior, 5 minutes prior, etc. All it will do is get rid of the appearance of past posting. You'll still have massive odds changes to which you won't be able to react. It's just an artifact of parimutuel systems.

One option that might work:
1. Stop all wagering X minutes prior to post.
2. Allow all "small" bettors, where small is defined as someone who bets less than $Y/month, to cancel their wagers between cutoff time and the race starting.

This allows some relief to the little guy while also making sure money isn't sucked out of the pools.

I've been following gambling twitter pretty closely lately and it's clear the #1 issue for professional bettors is that bookmakers cut customers off the minute the book thinks the customer is sharp. We don't have that problem with parimutuel systems. There are pluses and minuses to each, but if I'm a professional bettor, I'd much rather bet into a PM pool than a sportsbook. Exchanges would be nice, but as others have noted, have their own issues with rate increases for high volume wagers, and aren't suitable for exotics.

I agree, but then people will complain about odds changes after the cut-off and before the start.

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by davew

I agree, but then people will complain about odds changes after the cut-off and before the start.

Yep, agree completely. There's no way to get around the massive odds changes. But, if you cut off wagering at 2 mtp, the final odds will be seen by the 1 mtp mark, and the "small" betttors can then be allowed to cancel their wagers if they wish. Just a thought

[Tom]

1. My two cents - stop wagerin 2 minutes to post.
2. No one allowed to cancel any wager any time.

Never happen because, after all, the tracks do what the whale want, not the unwashed crowds who clutter their bleacher seats.

The last thing the tracks want is real pari-mutual wagering.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Tom

1. My two cents - stop wagerin 2 minutes to post.
2. No one allowed to cancel any wager any time.

Never happen because, after all, the tracks do what the whale want, not the unwashed crowds who clutter their bleacher seats.

The last thing the tracks want is real pari-mutual wagering.

just a couple of comments here. you can shut down wagering in the win place and show pools and probably in the daily double and exacta's, should someone be cheating, it will show as clear as day and night. but should someone be cheating in the blind pools that have higher takeouts, you won't be able to tell.
all someone has to do is cancel 1 wager and add a different one so the amounts in the pools don't change.

[Peter Berry]

I would cease off-track betting at 3 minutes to post, make an announcement on course when all off-track monies have been tallied, then allow 2 minutes or so for on-track bettors to wager at those "closing" odds. This would surely incentivize more bettors to come to the track.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Peter Berry

I would cease off-track betting at 3 minutes to post, make an announcement on course when all off-track monies have been tallied, then allow 2 minutes or so for on-track bettors to wager at those "closing" odds. This would surely incentivize more bettors to come to the track.

i have been a constant listener to your calls. you deserve the purple heart for what you have gone through with the changing odds during the race. but you are no expert in the changing odds syndrome of the racing game. i am, i have lived through both sides of the deal. i know exactly what to do, but managements throughout the industry don't want any part of fixing the problem.

for your information, altering pari-mutuel pools is a criminal offense in most jurisdictions and maybe all. it is also a federal crime now with the interstate transmissions of wagers.

[Peter Berry]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i have been a constant listener to your calls. you deserve the purple heart for what you have gone through with the changing odds during the race. but you are no expert in the changing odds syndrome of the racing game. i am, i have lived through both sides of the deal. i know exactly what to do, but managements throughout the industry don't want any part of fixing the problem.

for your information, altering pari-mutuel pools is a criminal offense in most jurisdictions and maybe all. it is also a federal crime now with the interstate transmissions of wagers.

You are correct about my lack of expertise on this matter. Would my proposal be illegal?

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Peter Berry

I would cease off-track betting at 3 minutes to post, make an announcement on course when all off-track monies have been tallied, then allow 2 minutes or so for on-track bettors to wager at those "closing" odds. This would surely incentivize more bettors to come to the track.

Peter, if you made the bets for me, and bought me lunch and drinks, I MIGHT come to the track!

But you would have to pick me up.....

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Peter Berry

You are correct about my lack of expertise on this matter. Would my proposal be illegal?

its legal, but much more is needed.

the problem with closing the bell so early is the loss of handle. there are people that like to see the horses on the track and in the gate. by cutting off betting early you will lose those people and they aren't doing anything wrong in my book.