Santa Anita Morning Line

[Track Phantom]

I know there have been threads on this before. I searched but couldn't find them.

Someone help me here. Isn't the job of the morning line guy to try and predict what the public will do and not his opinion on who is going to win the race?

His making #11 Congregationalist the 4-1 favorite AND SELECTING HIM ON TOP in race 3 on 1-3-15 is insane. The horse has run once in a year, beat one horse home, drops again and a low percentage rider. There is NO WAY the public was going to make that runner the favorite. Currently on the board at 9-1.

Then I listen to this clown and he selects the horse.

It really surprises me that Santa Anita has this amateur in charge of the morning line AND in the paddock with selections. Wow!

Maybe I'm being too hard on him but it bugs me.

[luisbe]

Good position jobs is for those with talent for lobby. Battaglia calling races is a joke.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Valento

I know there have been threads on this before. I searched but couldn't find them.

Someone help me here. Isn't the job of the morning line guy to try and predict what the public will do and not his opinion on who is going to win the race?

His making #11 Congregationalist the 4-1 favorite AND SELECTING HIM ON TOP in race 3 on 1-3-15 is insane. The horse has run once in a year, beat one horse home, drops again and a low percentage rider. There is NO WAY the public was going to make that runner the favorite. Currently on the board at 9-1.

Then I listen to this clown and he selects the horse.

It really surprises me that Santa Anita has this amateur in charge of the morning line AND in the paddock with selections. Wow!

Maybe I'm being too hard on him but it bugs me.

I'm sure he would appreciate knowing that its not ok to be mediocre.

Never been a fan of that horse.

I like the 12 here, i think he turned the corner with his win 2 back he's been full of run recently, hopefully the bias won't beat him.

[Track Phantom]

#11 Congregationalist went off at 10-1 (and beat one runner home). He was just a smidge from being the SECOND LONGEST SHOT in the race.

This guy has him as the morning line favorite.

If he is doing the job the way it was intended, he assumes the public would make him the favorite. Anyone with two days of reading the racing form would know this horse was, at best, 6th choice in the race.

How does this guy get it so wrong? I'm dead serious. I just don't understand it. Wouldn't you be embarrassed by that if you were doing it? I would.

[mabred]

wish he would at least do the morning line before
3pm the day before they race.They are always the
last one to have the program done.Guess like he
would rather tout horses.

Mabred

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Valento

#11 Congregationalist went off at 10-1 (and beat one runner home). He was just a smidge from being the SECOND LONGEST SHOT in the race.

This guy has him as the morning line favorite.

If he is doing the job the way it was intended, he assumes the public would make him the favorite. Anyone with two days of reading the racing form would know this horse was, at best, 6th choice in the race.

How does this guy get it so wrong? I'm dead serious. I just don't understand it. Wouldn't you be embarrassed by that if you were doing it? I would.

Forgetting the ML, that horse has run plenty at SA, he's a cruddy hanger, sharp bettors know exactly what that horse is all about, he's not reliable, once in a while he runs a bang up race, but that win he has on April 6th is what can get you to maybe pick him or give him a short ML, but there is more to the story.

I have a specific note on that horse on April 6th that he had "funny head movement" i put "unfluid" for hot trainer. So, Cerin had a "hot streak" about that time....and now, while he's not exactly cold, he's not as hot as that time frame....and i hated this horse otherwise, so maybe i was right about the unfluid nature of his win, because he missed time after that...this was not a horse who was rounding to form, or in form or anything like that...not to mention all the local jocks bailed, if that horse was any good, Bejarano would have been riding him.

Lots of reasons to stay away from that horse, everyone knew except Mr ML guy.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Forgetting the ML, that horse has run plenty at SA, he's a cruddy hanger, sharp bettors know exactly what that horse is all about, he's not reliable, once in a while he runs a bang up race, but that win he has on April 6th is what can get you to maybe pick him or give him a short ML, but there is more to the story.

I have a specific note on that horse on April 6th that he had "funny head movement" i put "unfluid" for hot trainer. So, Cerin had a "hot streak" about that time....and now, while he's not exactly cold, he's not as hot as that time frame....and i hated this horse otherwise, so maybe i was right about the unfluid nature of his win, because he missed time after that...this was not a horse who was rounding to form, or in form or anything like that...not to mention all the local jocks bailed, if that horse was any good, Bejarano would have been riding him.

Lots of reasons to stay away from that horse, everyone knew except Mr ML guy.

The thread really isn't about making a case for or against this horse. It's about creating a morning line the way a morning line maker is supposed to make one.

Maybe I'm dead wrong here. Maybe the morning line guy is supposed to make a morning line that mirrors his opinion on who he thinks will win the race.

Someone please correct me here.....

[proximity]

The Stronach Group is North America’s leading Thoroughbred racetrack owner/operator and inventor of the popular horse wizard machines that have taken the continent by storm.....

[cj]

Originally Posted by Valento

The thread really isn't about making a case for or against this horse. It's about creating a morning line the way a morning line maker is supposed to make one.

Maybe I'm dead wrong here. Maybe the morning line guy is supposed to make a morning line that mirrors his opinion on who he thinks will win the race.

Someone please correct me here.....

Do you think he does this often? If not, maybe he just blew one and let his handicapping influence him. The guy does what, a couple thousand morning lines a year?

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by cj

Do you think he does this often? If not, maybe he just blew one and let his handicapping influence him. The guy does what, a couple thousand morning lines a year?

Often. I'd dare say always. It is extremely perplexing to me.

Again, I'm not a morning line maker but I was always taught that the ML is supposed to reflect the public. I'm sure he knows this and he has decided to do it his way. I think it is doing a disservice but, who knows, shit like that bothers me and, on the grand scheme of things, who cares?

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by cj

Do you think he does this often? If not, maybe he just blew one and let his handicapping influence him. The guy does what, a couple thousand morning lines a year?

Depends on how much you know the game and the circuit. I have to imagine White only follows SA and the other major So Cal tracks, so he has more time than i do (for example) to "know the horses". I watch other tracks as well as SA and i knew that this horse in question is a crud, it didnt take me much time to dig for a specific note on the horse unraveling physically in his Apr 6th win and then falling off the map for 7 or 8 months.

Its easy to blow one if you are handicapping a race with a lot of unknowns...but, why would White not know that specific horse is a stinker who looked "off" in April and disappeared after the win? That horse has a ton of So Cal races and has hung badly and stunk in most of them. What's there to think about?

[Dark Horse]

White's approach is very loose. His prerace odds can add up to as much as 137%, where about 10% less is normal for the main tracks (and the closing lines add up to about 120%). I have no idea why he doesn't tighten up his lines. But I don't think that the betting public disagreeing with those lines is noticeably different than at other tracks, and those percentage swings are part of my standard interface.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

White's approach is very loose. His prerace odds can add up to as much as 137%, where about 10% less is normal for the main tracks (and the closing lines add up to about 120%). I have no idea why he doesn't tighten up his lines. But I don't think that the betting public disagreeing with those lines is noticeably different than at other tracks, and those percentage swings are part of my standard interface.

Three things bug me about how he does this:

1. He has too many runners between 2-1 and 6-1 normally. He basically gives everyone too much of a chance. I personally like to see more separation there.
2. He handicaps and places ML odds to the runners he likes and, basically, disregards what the public is likely to do. (hence this chain).
3. Morning line odds are way too late in getting implemented. Should be 3 days out. I've seen it still not ready 1 day out.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Valento

Three things bug me about how he does this:

1. He has too many runners between 2-1 and 6-1 normally. He basically gives everyone too much of a chance. I personally like to see more separation there.
2. He handicaps and places ML odds to the runners he likes and, basically, disregards what the public is likely to do. (hence this chain).
3. Morning line odds are way too late in getting implemented. Should be 3 days out. I've seen it still not ready 1 day out.

No doubt. But, if everyone "has a chance" won't that create more perception that its a "great betting race" and there's a reason to bet the race and have more horses to actually bet?

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by Valento

Three things bug me about how he does this:

1. He has too many runners between 2-1 and 6-1 normally. He basically gives everyone too much of a chance. I personally like to see more separation there.
2. He handicaps and places ML odds to the runners he likes and, basically, disregards what the public is likely to do. (hence this chain).
3. Morning line odds are way too late in getting implemented. Should be 3 days out. I've seen it still not ready 1 day out.

#1 comes down to simple math.

Jon White has ignored sticking to any set formula
on what a M/L should add up to percentage wise.
It's very easy. Santa Anita's takeout on WPS is 15.4%
You could easily round up to 120%.
125% wouldn't even be that bad - plenty of leeway.
What does Mr. White routinely do?
He sets his line at well over 130%, maybe even 140.
It's ludicrous.

Here's an example of a line set to 120%.
Six horse field - every horse in the race is 4-1.
Now, I realize that is oversimplifying, but it's just an example.
Jon White's line would have those same horses all at 7-2,
which would come out to just over 132%. Why does he do it?
I have no idea. I'm not sure he even realizes what he is doing.

Point #2 he would probably deny, but I'm not sure.

Point #3 has been an ongoing problem with SoCal M/L for decades.
They never put the line out more than 24 hours ahead of time.
It's a joke. They draw the races as far out as anywhere else.
The morning line should be out 2-3 days in advance.
Not that it really matters, though. It's a work of fiction, anyway.