|
|
07-28-2022, 01:32 AM
|
#16
|
Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,147
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P
Really?
You do realize it's possible to model the likelihood of a horse finishing exactly first or exactly second from the data using logistic regression and other statistical modeling techniques right?
I know that it's possible because I've actually done it.
When modeling the likelihood of a horse finishing exactly first one of the requirements when preparing the data for analysis is to create a column for your dependent variable that contains a 1 for the winner of each race and a 0 for all of the non-winners in each race.
I can't see any reason somebody couldn't prepare their data for analysis by creating a column for the dependent variable that contains a 1 for the horse in each race that finished exactly fourth and 0 for all of the other non-fourth place finishers in each race.
And from there run a logistic regression analysis on the data to generate an accurate estimate for the likelihood of a fourth place finish.
That said, if you don't want to go down the logistic regression rabbit hole, you can get a pretty good ballpark estimate just by looking at the data.
Attached at the bottom of this post is a text file that contains two cut and pastes showing what I have in my current database from July 1 2022 through yesterday July 26 2022:
#1. The Fastest Horse in the Race, or horses that are rank=1 for one of my time decayed final time speed fig factors with the data broken out by actual finish position.
#2. The Fourth Fastest Horse in the Race, or horses that are rank=4 for the same time decayed final time speed fig factor with the data broken out by actual finish position.
Note that the rank=1 horses won about 30% of the time and and finished exactly fourth about 12% of the time.
Also note that the rank=4 horses won just 10% of the time but finished exactly fourth almost 19% of the time.
Imo, it's a big enough sample that I feel confident saying that the fourth fastest horse in the race is about 19% likely to finish exactly fourth and about 1.5 times more likely than the fastest horse in the race to finish exactly fourth.
-jp
.
|
Would you agree that another way of stating this is that selecting a first place horse is not the same as selecting for other positions and therefore other postions require a different evaluation?
__________________
Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
|
|
|
07-28-2022, 01:36 AM
|
#17
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,258
|
Yes. Absolutely.
-jp
.
__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com
|
|
|
07-28-2022, 09:44 AM
|
#18
|
clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P
Note that the rank=1 horses won about 30% of the time and and finished exactly fourth about 12% of the time.
|
makes sense
and especially when most races are efficient markets.
a crude glance at Win and Exacta is going to eliminate some of the highest % selections for exactly '4Th' picks.
If a horse is terrible, can toss that one also.
If it's a 7 horse field we're down to like 3-5 candidates already, and we've got zero handicapping insight. We just looked at odds at a race as if it was correct/efficient odds.
Game is about opinions or if you are using math or a program about selected horses that fit the odds discrepancy to offer value.
we've got the wagering menu, and hopefully sometimes the pieces fit the puzzle.
You can be a 'Pick exactly 4th!' specialist even... you just won't get many plays, and will face some losing streaks, and it will take some understanding and trial and error to get on the right page.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
|
|
|
07-28-2022, 12:47 PM
|
#19
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
|
Damn son thats awesome
Thanks for that I will use this !!
|
|
|
07-28-2022, 12:55 PM
|
#20
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
|
The printout says 4th or better??? So is 19% exactly fourth??
|
|
|
07-28-2022, 12:57 PM
|
#21
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
|
How about a minimum 10 horse field???
|
|
|
07-28-2022, 01:27 PM
|
#22
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,258
|
The table below is a cut and paste of the data broken out by finish position for the fourth fastest horse in the race:
Code:
1ST 3416 348 0.1019 0.9889 1ST or better 000348/003416 = 0.1019
2ND 3416 513 0.1502 1.4576 2ND or better 000861/003416 = 0.2520
3RD 3416 608 0.178 1.7274 3RD or better 001469/003416 = 0.4300
4TH 3416 647 0.1894 1.838 4TH or better 002116/003416 = 0.6194 <--
5TH 3416 534 0.1563 1.5168 5TH or better 002650/003416 = 0.7758
6TH 3416 371 0.1086 1.0539 6TH or better 003021/003416 = 0.8844
7TH 3416 192 0.0562 0.5454 7TH or better 003213/003416 = 0.9406
8TH 3416 103 0.0302 0.2931 8TH or better 003316/003416 = 0.9707
9TH 3416 66 0.0193 0.1873 9TH or better 003382/003416 = 0.9900
10TH 3416 21 0.0061 0.0592 10TH or better 003403/003416 = 0.9962
11TH 3416 11 0.0032 0.0311 11TH or better 003414/003416 = 0.9994
12TH 3416 1 0.0003 0.0029 12TH or better 003415/003416 = 0.9997
Exactly 4TH --
There were 3416 rank=4 starters in the data... 647 of them finished 4th... 647/3416 = 0.1894 (shown in blue.)
4TH or better --
There were 3416 rank=4 starters in the data... 348 finished 1st, 513 finished 2nd, 608 finished 3rd, and 647 finished 4th... (348 + 513 + 608 + 647) = 2116... (2116/3416) = 0.6194 (shown in purple.)
-jp
.
__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com
|
|
|
07-30-2022, 10:52 AM
|
#23
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2020
Posts: 78
|
Superfecta strategy
I am looking for a very good SUPER HIGH 5 strategy. Any great ideas? Jason Kassa or anyone else? All and any help is greatly welcome. Thanks in advance.
|
|
|
07-31-2022, 10:44 AM
|
#24
|
clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by soflant
I am looking for a very good SUPER HIGH 5 strategy. Any great ideas? Jason Kassa or anyone else? All and any help is greatly welcome. Thanks in advance.
|
Only great idea I have here is hard work and waiting for a good opportunity.
some solid ideas attached in a tweet ( let me know if those are difficult to access).
Jeff P is also on the right path with the data. Same Superfecta stuff applies.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
|
|
|
07-31-2022, 10:52 AM
|
#25
|
Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,654
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
Only great idea I have here is hard work and waiting for a good opportunity.
some solid ideas attached in a tweet ( let me know if those are difficult to access).
Jeff P is also on the right path with the data. Same Superfecta stuff applies.
https://twitter.com/jason_kassa/stat...52761807917057
|
about a decade ago i hit a ten-cent super that paid $1100. that is about the only luck i have ever had playing those things. once in a while i have plaid no spread single tickets at the Mountain, when i hit them they have all paid less than $50 for a $2 bet. its not my favorite wager, i like the win pools.
|
|
|
07-31-2022, 10:58 AM
|
#26
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2020
Posts: 78
|
Super High 5 strategy
Many thanks to Robert and Jason. This a huge help!
|
|
|
07-31-2022, 03:46 PM
|
#27
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 76
|
My Favorite Super High 5 Ticket.
1,2 with 1,2 with Key horse with 4,5,6,7 with 4,5,6,7.
1,2 with 1,2 with 4,5,6,7 with Key horse with 4,5,6,7.
1,2 with 1,2 with 4,5,6,7 with 4,5,6,7 with Key horse.
* 50 cent tickets = $36 Play.
** This one is so good I almost hate to share it. Basically you find a somewhat logical exacta box and a consistant horse that can get in the mix. Fill in the other spots with a couple of speed horses that fade and a couple of late closers.
Works better on Turf due to the fact that Dirt Lone Speed Horses can win but rarely run 2nd thus blowing your exacta.
*** Don't get too cute and try to include impossible horses - the idea here is to just hit it so it is acceptable to include the fav in the exacta along with another low priced horse. Perfect scenario for me is a Turf Route using the Fav and Best Closer in the 1st two spots. Personally, I would only play if there is at least a 9 horse field.
***** Good Luck!
|
|
|
07-31-2022, 10:23 PM
|
#28
|
Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,147
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
about a decade ago i hit a ten-cent super that paid $1100. that is about the only luck i have ever had playing those things. once in a while i have plaid no spread single tickets at the Mountain, when i hit them they have all paid less than $50 for a $2 bet. its not my favorite wager, i like the win pools.
|
Interestingly, my best super plays have been on lightly raced maidens based on physicality. I haven't played many, but I hit one for $956.54 and one for $560.00. Plus one for about $150 for a nw1 on a stretch out as the lone speed where I felt the other forward horses would collapse.
The key is to have a strong opinion about the race.
__________________
Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
|
|
|
08-01-2022, 01:22 PM
|
#29
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,274
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ranchwest
........The key is to have a strong opinion about the race.
|
That should be a requirement of any bet!
I don't think there is any general betting strategy that makes someone a successful superfecta player. Betting strategy should be dependent solely on a strong opinion. A ticket built on the opinion that a short-priced favorite can't win would look much different than one where there is a standout selection to win.
__________________
Best writing advice ever received: Never use a long word when a diminutive one will suffice.
|
|
|
08-04-2022, 01:38 PM
|
#30
|
clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
|
some good ones Wednesday at Indy
long day in life, and a crazy day even at the simulcast, but managed an OK SU. just missed the hi-5
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
|
|
|
|
|
Thread Tools |
|
Rate This Thread |
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|