Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 08-15-2022, 08:05 PM   #16
the little guy
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 6,731
Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper View Post
On Manitoba Derby night, Assiniboia Downs had their Jackpot pick 5 forceout. Pat Cummings related how as the first leg got ready to run, that from the time when the first horse loaded into the gate until the off, 10 CRW groups pushed the “go” button on their wagers, adding around $840,000 - EIGHT HUNDRED AND FORTY THOUSAND DOLLARS - to the pool, making up 70% of it. It makes for very bad optics when similarly hefty last second win wagers make their way into the pool and don’t get reflected on screen for a few flashes, but there is nothing necessarily nefarious about it. It’s all about how their algorithms adjust for the inefficiencies between pools, and their ability to upload a variety of massive wagers right before the “bell”. I’m all for ways of figuring out how to fix the optics.
Isn't the worst part of that story that 70% of the pool was CAW money?

This is the biggest problem, and sadly there are others, with Jackpot bets. The carryover gets built on the backs of small players and then CAW players come in and sweep it in on force out day. The sooner these bets go away the better.

I won't hold my breath.
the little guy is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-15-2022, 08:26 PM   #17
MJC922
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,134
Quote:
Originally Posted by $w1fT View Post
We know that. The casual or new bettor doesnt. They see that and find something else to bet on.
It's a good point. Casuals who bet flat are rare but I suppose this may be why. More likely is they just want 5 figure scores. Anyway, players (both serious and casual) deserve to not have to be sitting there with a spreadsheet at arms length all day long. I do think the info should be made readily available to put a lot of this to rest.
__________________
North American Class Rankings
MJC922 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-15-2022, 08:26 PM   #18
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 108,381
How many years did it take toget standard color saddle cloths?
This is high tech stuff, not like going to the moon, which took lees than 9 years from JFK to one small step.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-15-2022, 09:02 PM   #19
lamboguy
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 22,866
Quote:
Originally Posted by Al Gobbi View Post
CRW is pretty much the only thing keeping handle numbers afloat at most tracks
i would like to bet that if they shored up the tote and got rid of the CAW, the handles would at least double now.
lamboguy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-15-2022, 09:39 PM   #20
BarchCapper
Registered User
 
BarchCapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: Clarksville, AR
Posts: 863
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
Isn't the worst part of that story that 70% of the pool was CAW money?
Yes. Tied into it being CAW money into a high % takeout pool, it's so "comforting" to know that their newly wagered money is also being heavily rebated.

I hope that continually seeing the amount of new money brought in by the carryovers on the regular pick 6 at NYRA will gradually convince other track operators to put the jackpots away for good.

Granted, I'd also prefer that the pendulum would keep swinging back towards a return to higher churn single race wagering.
__________________
Tom in NW Arkansas
——————
”Past performances are no guarantee of future results.” - Why isn't this disclaimer printed in the Daily Racing Form?
BarchCapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-15-2022, 10:01 PM   #21
Onesome
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 204
what was the fixed odds price on the horse in the end?

Edit: final sp was 7/5....and people are shocked the tote money came in late on a horse showing 4-1 that was 7/5 fixed?

Last edited by Onesome; 08-15-2022 at 10:04 PM.
Onesome is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-15-2022, 11:28 PM   #22
PaceAdvantage
PA Steward
 
PaceAdvantage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 78,521
Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy View Post
i would like to bet that if they shored up the tote and got rid of the CAW, the handles would at least double now.
Man you're a dreamer
__________________
@paceadvantage | Support the site and become a today!
PaceAdvantage is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-16-2022, 12:07 AM   #23
SG4
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 850
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
The carryover gets built on the backs of small players and then CAW players come in and sweep it in on force out day .

Is this an assumption or actually based on factual bet data (real question, no snark)? Honestly I always thought it's the CAW's in these jackpot pools day in & out cause we hear about the massive rebates they're getting from these tracks (also just speculation, I have never seen actual proof) & I feel like the payouts on most of these bets on a daily basis suggest heavy CAW activity. The only track that I follow regularly which I would think does not have heavy (or any) CAW activity in their jackpot bet would be Churchill, as their pick 6 generally has a mediocre pool, despite a fairly attractive takeout situation.
SG4 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-16-2022, 05:19 AM   #24
lamboguy
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 22,866
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
Man you're a dreamer
that's what this country is all about, dreaming big.
lamboguy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-16-2022, 05:34 AM   #25
lamboguy
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 22,866
Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper View Post
On Manitoba Derby night, Assiniboia Downs had their Jackpot pick 5 forceout. Pat Cummings related how as the first leg got ready to run, that from the time when the first horse loaded into the gate until the off, 10 CRW groups pushed the “go” button on their wagers, adding around $840,000 - EIGHT HUNDRED AND FORTY THOUSAND DOLLARS - to the pool, making up 70% of it. It makes for very bad optics when similarly hefty last second win wagers make their way into the pool and don’t get reflected on screen for a few flashes, but there is nothing necessarily nefarious about it. It’s all about how their algorithms adjust for the inefficiencies between pools, and their ability to upload a variety of massive wagers right before the “bell”. I’m all for ways of figuring out how to fix the optics.
that's a tremendous explanation for the money that came in on the eventual winner the 4 horse. but it does not explain the $1500 that disappeared from the 1 entry from the start of the race to the finish of it.
lamboguy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-16-2022, 07:25 AM   #26
westernmassbob
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
Posts: 429
Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper View Post
On Manitoba Derby night, Assiniboia Downs had their Jackpot pick 5 forceout. Pat Cummings related how as the first leg got ready to run, that from the time when the first horse loaded into the gate until the off, 10 CRW groups pushed the “go” button on their wagers, adding around $840,000 - EIGHT HUNDRED AND FORTY THOUSAND DOLLARS - to the pool, making up 70% of it. It makes for very bad optics when similarly hefty last second win wagers make their way into the pool and don’t get reflected on screen for a few flashes, but there is nothing necessarily nefarious about it. It’s all about how their algorithms adjust for the inefficiencies between pools, and their ability to upload a variety of massive wagers right before the “bell”. I’m all for ways of figuring out how to fix the optics.
These type of situations are great for a small ticket player especially if the bet chalks out. The infusion of that much cash will always return a higher payoff then normal. That’s why it’s always better to wait for force out day’s to play these gimmick bets. Andy Beyer has given horse bettors this same type of advice.
westernmassbob is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-16-2022, 08:54 AM   #27
castaway01
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,548
Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy View Post
i would like to bet that if they shored up the tote and got rid of the CAW, the handles would at least double now.
If they got rid of CAW, handle would drop 50%. It's literally how racing survives in many places (that and slot machines). You have to wake up to reality at some point.

I finally shut down my NJ betting account this week. The game is virtually unplayable now, and that's not going to change when the thing making the game unplayable is also what is keeping it alive.
castaway01 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-16-2022, 09:29 AM   #28
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 18,807
Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper View Post
It’s all about how their algorithms adjust for the inefficiencies between pools, and their ability to upload a variety of massive wagers right before the “bell”. I’m all for ways of figuring out how to fix the optics.
There are ways to fix this, but it would require investing in software upgrades and wind up reducing handle from the biggest bettors.

Who is going to spend money to reduce their own handle?
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-16-2022, 09:30 AM   #29
metro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 355
Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper View Post
On Manitoba Derby night, Assiniboia Downs had their Jackpot pick 5 forceout. Pat Cummings related how as the first leg got ready to run, that from the time when the first horse loaded into the gate until the off, 10 CRW groups pushed the “go” button on their wagers, adding around $840,000 - EIGHT HUNDRED AND FORTY THOUSAND DOLLARS - to the pool, making up 70% of it. It makes for very bad optics when similarly hefty last second win wagers make their way into the pool and don’t get reflected on screen for a few flashes, but there is nothing necessarily nefarious about it. It’s all about how their algorithms adjust for the inefficiencies between pools, and their ability to upload a variety of massive wagers right before the “bell”. I’m all for ways of figuring out how to fix the optics.
That's hard to believe. I thought the whole point of CRW groups was to find inefficiencies in wagering pools. When they are 70% of any pool how is that efficient? Wouldn't their systems stop betting at some point?

Back to the original post....the easiest way for tracks to address situations like this with the late odds drop are to be transparent with the last minute or so of wagers. Open the books, let the betting public see the amounts and time stamps of the wagers.
metro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-16-2022, 10:06 AM   #30
BarchCapper
Registered User
 
BarchCapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: Clarksville, AR
Posts: 863
Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy View Post
that's a tremendous explanation for the money that came in on the eventual winner the 4 horse. but it does not explain the $1500 that disappeared from the 1 entry from the start of the race to the finish of it.
Cancelled wager occurring in that same time frame also not reflected until the last flash? I believe I've read that the CAWs have more restrictions on cancelling wagers given the type of access they have, but it may not be a complete restriction. Could be some other large wagerer with a cancel that took until the last second to approve because of its size. I have no trouble agreeing that regardless of the legitimacy of these changes - the optics are ugly, and whatever steps that are available to improve those optics should be taken.
__________________
Tom in NW Arkansas
——————
”Past performances are no guarantee of future results.” - Why isn't this disclaimer printed in the Daily Racing Form?
BarchCapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Do you use energy percentages?
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:48 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2022 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.