Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL**


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 05-09-2022, 06:47 AM   #106
Marshall Bennett
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Houston , Tx.
Posts: 9,109
Had to be one of my favorite derby's. This guy was near the middle of of the pack at the stretch and needled his way to victory. Not a typical 80-1
scenario. He hadn't been even been mentioned in stretch call till the wire was just feet away.
I had my racing interest boosted by this run. Honestly, I'd nearly lost all interest in horse racing. What an amazing (story) achievement, should this colt go on to sweep the TC.
Marshall Bennett is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-09-2022, 06:56 AM   #107
BlueChip@DRF
Random Numbers Generator
 
BlueChip@DRF's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marshall Bennett View Post
Had to be one of my favorite derby's. This guy was near the middle of of the pack at the stretch and needled his way to victory. Not a typical 80-1
scenario. He hadn't been even been mentioned in stretch call till the wire was just feet away.
I had my racing interest boosted by this run. Honestly, I'd nearly lost all interest in horse racing. What an amazing (story) achievement, should this colt go on to sweep the TC.
I'm glad the first 5 finishers ran Lasix-free their entire careers up to this point. I hope they make the preps/qualifiers Lasix-free as well.
__________________
Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
BlueChip@DRF is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-09-2022, 08:17 AM   #108
Brisk Urging
Registered User
 
Brisk Urging's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2021
Posts: 170
It was 99-1 all day which means it could have been 125-1. Yet with less than an hour to go it “drops” to 80-1? That’s worthy of investigation? No way 20 across or even 200 across from random bettors drops the number that much
Brisk Urging is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-09-2022, 08:59 AM   #109
Brisk Urging
Registered User
 
Brisk Urging's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2021
Posts: 170

Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 05-09-2022 at 09:27 AM.
Brisk Urging is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-09-2022, 10:15 AM   #110
johnhenry81
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 163
Lost my money, but loved every 2 minute and 2 seconds of it!

My brother, not a racing fan went to the Derby as a bucket list thing. He had a blast, and now has the bug.

jh
johnhenry81 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-09-2022, 10:24 AM   #111
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 108,340
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-09-2022, 10:56 AM   #112
eqitec
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 190
Rich Strike

I track early and late tote board action using infographics. See the image attached.
Rich Strike's final odds drop (-19%) was almost equivalent to Epicenter's final drop (-20%) after Mattress Mac dropped his load. One would have expected Rich Strike's odds to go after that, instead it went down by 19%.
And the infographic pointed out the $321,500 super using the top 4 odds droppers. I didn't have it.
Where did all this smart money come from?

Attached Images
File Type: png TBAIG-CD-050722-12-Derby.png (84.8 KB, 36 views)
eqitec is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-09-2022, 12:09 PM   #113
Gallop58
Registered User
 
Gallop58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 131
I hate to say it but my first thought was imagining the backstretch PA system right after the race; “Number 21 to the test barn please, number 21 to the test barn.”
Someone cut together replays of all his races on YouTube. To my eye the stride rate/quickening he showed in the Derby did not seem to even be hinted at before.
That’s horse racing I guess. Good for them.
Gallop58 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-09-2022, 12:46 PM   #114
Viruss
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 136
Surprise

The finish shocked everyone..... The silver lining is the sport is getting extra coverage in most all media outlets... Let's see how many people come back to see if he repeats..

Earl J
Viruss is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-09-2022, 12:58 PM   #115
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 18,789
It will be interesting to see how he runs next time.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-09-2022, 02:26 PM   #116
wisconsin
Registered User
 
wisconsin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Mukwonago, WI
Posts: 2,922
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
It will be interesting to see how he runs next time.

Even Mine That Bird ran 2nd in the Preakness.

Depends upon the pace. They went :45 2/5 for the opening half, which had to have helped the winner.
__________________
"I don't always frequent message boards, but when I do, I prefer PaceAdvantage."
wisconsin is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-09-2022, 03:17 PM   #117
Bullet Plane
Registered User
 
Bullet Plane's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: OKC, OK
Posts: 537
Yeah but,


the race MTB was in a race with much less pace. the second horse PON was 3rd at the quarter. Papa Clem 5th.

The race is similar to the Giacomo race. Where the top five horses came from the back (except Closing argument who was 5th at the quarter.)

The race went 22 and 1, 45 and one, and 1:09 two to the at 6f.

He went on to finish third in the Preakness albeit about ten lengths behind the winner.

On class coming into the race, he might be more like MTB. But even MTB had shown more at 2. So, its hard to compare this guy to anyone that I can remember.
Bullet Plane is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-09-2022, 03:35 PM   #118
lured
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by eqitec View Post
I track early and late tote board action using infographics. See the image attached.
Rich Strike's final odds drop (-19%) was almost equivalent to Epicenter's final drop (-20%) after Mattress Mac dropped his load. One would have expected Rich Strike's odds to go after that, instead it went down by 19%.
And the infographic pointed out the $321,500 super using the top 4 odds droppers. I didn't have it.
Where did all this smart money come from?
Makes me wonder what the Super would've paid if they had closed the pool at 15 MTP. Or at what time the winning Supers (from .10 cents up to a dollar). were purchased.

Last edited by lured; 05-09-2022 at 03:38 PM.
lured is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-09-2022, 03:45 PM   #119
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 22,273
Great story, rough weekend for me.

I tossed 4 horses in the Derby and did Trifecta Double-Keys with Zandon and each of the top contenders (Taiba, Messia, Epicenter, Mo Donegal) With 16 in the 3rd slot in each position. [[ ZE/ZE/all-4, ZE/a-4/ZE, a-4/ZE/ZE, etc...]]
similar oaks derby (echo, Secret Oath/ most) similar oaks/Turf/Derby

had goofy horses like Summer Is Tomorrow, Jack, Crown, Tawny feeling that this derby was ripe for some randomness...

TBH didn't even put in my full due dilligence on Rich Strike... not sure that would've mattered (all button or not was the decsision and I may as well have gone that far with positionining myself to win 1000s on 'no hopers' like 2,4,18...
rough rough ... to rub salt, A guy sat down next to me and he's screaming that the Jack $$$$$ won (never comfortable in the gate and probably not much chance but 21 kinda looks like #2), so for a second of confusion I thought I was good...

Then Sunday, I cut a $12.80 20c SA p6 to $6.40 because "no way i'm gonna be that exact anyway) by removing the winner of leg 1 at the window last second change... everything else comes in pays $2,100 , also miss the superfecta key of the turf race for cold/dismissed Peter Miller/ Ruben Alvarado Sunday ~$600 by 1 punch... frustrating weekend where I had some decent opinions.

Part of what makes the game great, but can be painful
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-09-2022, 03:59 PM   #120
lured
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brisk Urging View Post
If I had that ticket, I wouldn't be able to cash it. Reason being, I would've died of a heart attack watching Mo Donegal going after Simplification at the wire.
lured is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Do you use energy percentages?
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:02 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2022 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.