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Old 03-11-2020, 05:08 PM   #1
elhelmete
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database/numbers guys...tool to identify potential cheats?

I imagine that all the data that's collected by dedicated database guys could be used to suggest certain trainers for add'l scrutiny.

W% and WPS% over time. Then parsed out by a few criteria. I can think of a few random ones off the top of my head.

start with any notable delta in year-to-year W% and WPS%
then stuff like
1st and 2nd start off claim.
frequency +10pts BSF since last start
all controlled for conditions, pars, etc.

I wish I had a database. And some smarts.
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Old 03-11-2020, 05:36 PM   #2
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Go to BRIS and see their weekly feature Trainer Stats Last 60 Days.

Everyone on that list should be considered a cheat until proven innocent.
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Old 03-11-2020, 10:22 PM   #3
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100s of horses and above average win percentage. Horses dropping on the track from "heart attacks", etc. It isn't that complicated if you care to look.
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Old 03-11-2020, 10:27 PM   #4
46zilzal
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A trainers stats depend upon the STOCK he/she has no hands and varies wildly
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Old 03-11-2020, 10:31 PM   #5
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Not only the "stock" anymore.
Got to consider the "stick" as well.
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Old 03-11-2020, 11:15 PM   #6
PaceMasterT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 46zilzal View Post
A trainers stats depend upon the STOCK he/she has no hands and varies wildly
BS, these guys were sticking former stakes winning horses in lower level claimers and daring you to claim them. See Karl Broberg. I don't know if this image will post or not. This message board is pretty antiquated.

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Old 03-11-2020, 11:54 PM   #7
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A trainers stats depend upon the STOCK he/she has no hands and varies wildly
Wow, ****ng loberal, I wish I had a Dr. Pepper.
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Old 03-11-2020, 11:57 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by PaceMasterT View Post
BS, these guys were sticking former stakes winning horses in lower level claimers and daring you to claim them. See Karl Broberg. I don't know if this image will post or not. This message board is pretty antiquated.

Sorry PA, looks like Joe Biden.
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Old 03-12-2020, 12:05 AM   #9
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Sorry PA, looks like Joe Biden.
Former Nebraskan. Me, not the jockey. Fonner Park Rules!!! Marvin Johnson, probably the king of the juicers before it became gouche.
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Old 03-12-2020, 01:40 AM   #10
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Former Nebraskan.
Sorry.

Sit and BS with a "friend" of his at Fonner, on a weekly basis. When he dislikes someone, it will go on forever. And if a jockey does not do what he wants, the jockey will not ride for him again. Needs to get Del a Cruz back. IMO.
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Old 03-12-2020, 09:57 AM   #11
eqitec
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Database Tool To Identify Potential Cheats

I've been working on just such a tool over the last several years. The current state of its development is shown by accessing the link below. This contains the following:

1 - Profile of 175 Winners Trained by Jason Servis
2 - Profile of 500 Winners Trained by Todd Pletcher (for the sake of comparison)
3 - Profile of the 12 Most Recent Kentucky Derby Winners

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/783pfrsxh...bFgdnIWoa?dl=0

IMO Winners Profiles similar to these should be examined by someone in authority for every winner at every track as a "reasonability" test; i.e., does the training regimen applied to the winner by the trainer make sense from the standpoint of equine exercise kinetics? Jason Servis would have failed this test long ago.

I envision this as a "red-flagging" tool that could compel the authorities to perform further investigation of any trainer failing the test.
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Old 03-12-2020, 10:04 AM   #12
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For a quick look at some trainers, go to EB and look up a trainer, say, oh......JASON Servis.

Look up his results you will see some red flags. They list his record chronologically, and give you the EB speed rating, so you can use that as a "performance" gauge. First page for good old JASON couple for big number moves out of the blue. And then back to "normal."
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