Brisnet Pace Ratings: How to find E3?

[Running Amok]

So I'm sure y'all know what Brisnet Pace ratings represent:

• E1 Pace Rating - rates how fast the horse ran from the start to the 1st call
  
• E2 Pace Rating - rates how fast the horse ran from the start to the 2nd call
  
• Late Pace Rating (LP) - rates how fast the horse ran from the 2nd call (pre-stretch call) to the finish

So after looking at these pace ratings I wondered how I could calculate an E3 rating (or I guess it could be called LP1)

• E3 or LP1 Pace Rating - rates how fast the horse ran from the 1st call (2f in sprints, 4f in most routes) to the finish.

[eldee wins]

Take the late pace rating LP and add final speed rating and divide by 2 for that figure. This is only my thought,Not factual. But looking at some past performances it seems to make sense.

[Running Amok]

The only thing about adding the final speed rating is it takes into account the entire race. I am trying to figure out how to create a pace rating similar ro E2 except instead of having it represent the start to to the second call, I want to calculate it form the first call to the finish.

In other words, move E2 from the start to the first call

[Dave Schwartz]

Sure, I will be happy to share the formulas.

First, let's start with some better names.

F1  = 1st Call Rtg      =Start to 1st call Rating
EP  = 2nd Call Rtg     =Start to 1st call Rating
SR  = Stretch Run Rtg=2nd call to Finish Rating
FT   = Final Time Rtg  =Speed Rating

You need these:

F1D  =1st Call            =Start to 1st call Dist (Fur)
EPD  =2nd Call           =Start to 2nd call Dist (Fur)
SRD  =Str Run            =2nd call to Finish Dist (Fur)
Dist  =Dist                  =Distance of Race (Fur)

So, you already have F1, EP, and FT.

You are looking for SR.

Let's do an example with a 6 fur race.
F1D=2.00
EPD=4.00
Dist=6.00


Let's say that your ratings are:
F1 = 95
EP = 100
FT = 105

Steps:
1. Compute TotEng =TOTAL ENERGY
(This is the total energy the horse expended in the race.)

TotEng=Dist x FT
TotEng=105 x 6.0 = 630

2. Compute EpEng
(This is the total energy the horse expended to the 2nd Call.)
EpEng=100 x 4.00 = 400

3. Compute SrEng
(This is the total energy the horse had left for the stretch run.)
SrEng=TotEng - EpEng
SrEng=630 - 400 = 230

4. Compute the SR
SR=SREng / (Dist-EPD)
SR=230/ (6.0 - 4.0)
SR=230/ 2.0 = 115

FINAL ANSWER
SR=115

[Tom]

I use this raing now. mostly for turf roues.
It works well.

(E2 - E1) + LP = E3 or LP1

DON'T MIX SPRINTS AND ROUTES AS IS.

[Running Amok]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Sure, I will be happy to share the formulas.

First, let's start with some better names.

F1  = 1st Call Rtg      =Start to 1st call Rating
EP  = 2nd Call Rtg     =Start to 1st call Rating
SR  = Stretch Run Rtg=2nd call to Finish Rating
FT   = Final Time Rtg  =Speed Rating

Above, I think for EP you meant 2nd Call

And since the 2nd call is at the 4f mark in a 6f race and 6f in routes, isn't the 2nd call technically a bit of a distance farther away than the "Stretch Run"?

Thanks Dave, very helpful and the formulas appear to give me exactly what I was looking for. May I ask how you came up with the math?

Originally Posted by Tom

I use this raing now. mostly for turf roues.
It works well.

(E2 - E1) + LP = E3 or LP1

DON'T MIX SPRINTS AND ROUTES AS IS.

Yes, here's a similar formula in the FAQ section at Brisnet, however they dont mention adding it to LP

HOW CAN I CALCULATE "TURN TIME" USING THE BRIS PACE RATINGS ?
It's easy! Simply subtract the 1st call Pace Rating (2f Pace Rating for sprints, 4f Pace Rating for most routes) from the 2nd call Pace Rating (4f Pace Rating for sprints, 6f for most routes):

      BRIS Turn Time          = E2 Pace Rating - E1 Pace Rating or

      BRIS Turn Time (sprint) = 4f Pace Rating - 2f Pace Rating or

      BRIS Turn Time (route)  = 6f Pace Rating - 4f Pace Rating

[Dave Schwartz]

Above, I think for EP you meant 2nd Call

The calls change as the distance changes.

But you now have the formulas.

The other approaches are not mathematically sound.

[Running Amok]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

The calls change as the distance changes.

But you now have the formulas.

The other approaches are not mathematically sound.

Thanks so much, very helpful.

BTW, it's my understanding that the 2nd call Pace Rating is always from the start to the 2nd call (2nd fraction). I was just indicating I thought you made a typo:

EP = 2nd Call Rtg =Start to 1st call Rating (2nd call Rating)

Do you use these same numbers in all sprint races and routes?
F1D=2.00
EPD=4.00
Dist=6.00

Edit: After re-reading your formulas, I see the answer is no.

F1D =1st Call =Start to 1st call Dist (Fur)
EPD =2nd Call =Start to 2nd call Dist (Fur)
Dist =Dist =Distance of Race (Fur)

[ranchwest]

BRIS data files have pace ratings for 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 furlongs plus Late. All of these are included in Quick Grid in both of the Pace Deep Dive grids. In the Pace (All Lines) Deep Dive, the pace ratings are included for all race lines.

[Running Amok]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Sure, I will be happy to share the formulas.

First, let's start with some better names.

F1  = 1st Call Rtg      =Start to 1st call Rating
EP  = 2nd Call Rtg     =Start to 1st call Rating (I'm sure you meant 2nd Call) 
SR  = Stretch Run Rtg=2nd call to Finish Rating
FT   = Final Time Rtg  =Speed Rating

You need these:

F1D  =1st Call            =Start to 1st call Dist (Fur)
EPD  =2nd Call           =Start to 2nd call Dist (Fur)
SRD  =Str Run            =2nd call to Finish Dist (Fur)
Dist  =Dist                  =Distance of Race (Fur)

So, you already have F1, EP, and FT.

You are looking for SR.

Let's do an example with a 6 fur race.
F1D=2.00
EPD=4.00
Dist=6.00


Let's say that your ratings are:
F1 = 95
EP = 100
FT = 105

Steps:
1. Compute TotEng =TOTAL ENERGY
(This is the total energy the horse expended in the race.)

TotEng=Dist x FT
TotEng=105 x 6.0 = 630

2. Compute EpEng
(This is the total energy the horse expended to the 2nd Call.)
EpEng=100 x 4.00 = 400

3. Compute SrEng
(This is the total energy the horse had left for the stretch run.)
SrEng=TotEng - EpEng
SrEng=630 - 400 = 230

4. Compute the SR
SR=SREng / (Dist-EPD)
SR=230/ (6.0 - 4.0)
SR=230/ 2.0 = 115

FINAL ANSWER
SR=115

OK so I don't think this is correct OR I wasn't clear in what I was asking.

Brisnet E2 rating is from the START to the 2ND CALL which is 4 furlongs in a 6 furlong sprint.

I am looking for 1ST CALL to the FINISH which would also be 4 furlongs in a 6 furlong race.

The formula you posted, the last section looks to be calculating a rating for 2 furlongs.

SR=230/ (6.0 - 4.0) (2 furlongs)
SR=230/ 2.0 = 115

[Running Amok]

OK, I see you misunderstood what I was asking.

"So, you already have F1, EP, and FT.

You are looking for SR."

"SR = Stretch Run Rtg=2nd call to Finish Rating"


No, that rating is the Late Pace rating (LP) already available in Brisnet PPs.

I need SR to = Final 4 furlong = 1ST call to Finish Rating

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Running Amok

OK, I see you misunderstood what I was asking.

"So, you already have F1, EP, and FT.

You are looking for SR."

"SR = Stretch Run Rtg=2nd call to Finish Rating"


No, that rating is the Late Pace rating (LP) already available in Brisnet PPs.

I need SR to = Final 4 furlong = 1ST call to Finish Rating

In the vernacular of pace, that's actually called LP for Late Pace.

Same idea.

You have total energy - in the example it is 630 units.

Subtract F1 * F1D to get available energy.

95 x 2 = 190.

630 - 190 = 440.

Now divided that by Dist-F1D:
Dist - F1D = 6.0 - 2.0 = 4.0

440 / 4.0 = 110.

Thus, he ran 110 for the last 4 furlongs.

[Bustin Stones]

I'm assuming the basis of this study is to reduce a set of figures to one robust figure that best represents today's expected effort sans class considerations.
If that is so, I can advise that I use the last 3 races taking E2, LP and SP figures and selecting the fourth highest value. of the 9 figures. It isn't my final consideration of today's speed, but it serves to anchor the solution.

[Running Amok]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

In the vernacular of pace, that's actually called LP for Late Pace.

In the vernacular of Brisnet pace, what I'm calling E3 (1st call to the finish) is not LP and not a rating they post in their PPs.

In the vernacular of Brisnet pace, LP for Late Pace is calculated from the 2nd call to the finish.


Brisnet Pace Ratings.JPG

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Same idea.

You have total energy - in the example it is 630 units.

Subtract F1 * F1D to get available energy.

95 x 2 = 190.

630 - 190 = 440.

Now divided that by Dist-F1D:
Dist - F1D = 6.0 - 2.0 = 4.0

440 / 4.0 = 110.

Thus, he ran 110 for the last 4 furlongs.

I was about to post the same result and ask if it was correct. Thanks for the help and confirming my calculations.

So the formula to compute E3 (which is what I'm calling it) would be:

Steps:
1. Compute TotEng =TOTAL ENERGY
(This is the total energy the horse expended in the race.)

TotEng=Dist x FT
TotEng=105 x 6.0 = 630

2. Compute F1Eng
(This is the total energy the horse expended to the 1ST Call.)
F1Eng=95 x 2.00 = 190

3. Compute E3Eng
(This is the total energy the horse expended from the 1st call to the finish.)
E3Eng=TotEng - F1Eng
E3Eng=630 - 190 = 440

4. Compute the E3
E3=E3Eng / (Dist-F1D)
E3=440/ (6.0 - 2.0)
E3=440/ 4.0 = 110

FINAL ANSWER
E3=110

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Running Amok

In the vernacular of Brisnet pace, what I'm calling E3 (1st call to the finish) is not LP and not a rating they post in their PPs.

Normally E3 would designate an early runner who figures to be 3rd at the 1st call.

This stuff is not MY vernacular, but you can call it whatever you want.