Okay, enough of this nonsense.
Time for me to respond since (as Patrick seems to think) this is such good advertisement for my product.
First, I have been hearing forever that if anyone had anything that worked, they would never sell it. Therefore, if something is for sale it must have no value.
If that is the case, then why would you ever buy a single book on horse racing?
But wait! There's more! If nothing of value would ever be sold, then it follows that it certainly wouldn't be given away for free!
Again, if that is the case, why would anyone listen to what anyone else has to say about handicapping? I mean, logically, why would anyone give away handicapping ideas of value (or even little "nuggets") for free?
Let's get serious here... people DO buy books and they DO listen to other handicappers opinions. LOL - There is hardly a horseplayer to be found that is shy about sharing an opinion on how to beat the game.
Ask yourself how YOU learned about the game. If I were a gambling man (that's humor) I'd be willing to bet that most of the people here have read one or more books that have shaped their handicapping strategies and core beliefs. Most people here have, at one time or another, listened to what some well-known handicapper had to say and the CHOSE to LEARN from it.
The question always boils down to who you should listen to and who should
be put on ignore when it comes to handicapping logic. It is really that simple.
Feel free to choose to put me on your ignore list if you feel I have nothing worthwhile to say. We always have that choice.
Here was my original quote, and it is completely in context:
Quote:
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While we are on this topic, the private feedback I have had after this workshop leads me to make a very provocative statement: "NewPace has evolved to the point where it may be a real turn-key profit machine."
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History of NewPace
(Those of you who feel that nothing of value is ever sold or given away may choose to not bother reading any more. After all, what could you possibly gain?)
1. Before NewPace
I originally developed NewPace for me. I had been a "dynamic modeler" for years. That is, I built a model of "races like this one" on the fly. That model was reasonably tight:
Same Track
Same Surface
Same Distance
Similar Track Condition
Same Approximate Age
Similar Pace Pressure (Thank you, Randy Giles)
+/- 2 Months of the Year
I then queried the system to answer a simple question: "What factors have best indicated what a winning horse looks like in a race like this?" (Thanks go here to Tom Brohamer for his original concept:
The Brohamer Model.)
This methodology worked for me for several years. (It still works, BTW.) One reason it works is that not too many people do something like this.
Over the years I tried many other approaches but, in the end, I came back to my dynamic approach every time because nothing was as consistent and self-correcting.
2. The Beginning of NewPace
When I hit upon the idea that almost every single race ultimately boiled down to a battle between early horse(s) and late horse(s) I thought I had discovered the absolute answer.
NewPace was very powerful, right from the very beginning. It allowed me to get horses that conventional pace handicapping just could not find. Many of these horses were at significantly higher than average prices, too.
At this point I had no intention of introducing NewPace to the world.
3. Intermediate NewPace
About 30,000 races into NewPace testing/tinkering, I became convinced that the approach was very good but would never take me where I wanted to go: namely, playing 90% of all races, with multiple horses per race.
It was a good methodology, but not good enough for ME. That was when I decided that I could share it with the world. (I admit to a less-than-altruistic motive here.) BTW, I shared it first with my inner-circle of HSH users - wrote some code to help them, taught them how to use it, etc. They helped me improve it.
4. NewPace for Sale
Once I announced that I was working on NewPace as a product for sale, I went to work to make the product better. I really do try to give the customer/client the best shake for his money.
It was during the pre-sale development that I made some interesting discoveries. These discoveries made NewPace more viable as a tool for ME. There were times that I seriously considered refunding everyone's money and keeping it to myself.
My logic was almost in agreement with the concept that nobody sells something good. I would say that nobody
knowingly sells something good
enough to make a living with for $77, $777 or even $7,777.
But it was definitely worth $77.
5. NewPace Develops
NewPace continued to develop.
In this slide from the
NewPace Advanced workshop, I highlighted the issues and problems that NewPace users were facing with the original product.
These are the issues that I set out to solve for myself, and for ALL NewPace users.
NewPace Advanced addressed all of these.
My Responsibility: Honor and Integrity Matter
I have already admitted that I am not a purely altruistic person. Profit, business and common sense do play a part.
However, just so we are clear, I recognize that I DO have a
reasonable level of responsibility to continue helping my customers and purchasers after the purchase.
I DO NOT owe them a lifetime of research to improve their handicapping.
I DO NOT owe them access to every discovery that I make.
I DO NOT owe them unlimited access to technical support for a book or video.
However, I DO owe them a fair shake. I owe them an
opportunity to purchase, at a
reasonable cost, the results of research I do.
It is safe to say that not everyone I have ever dealt with is a happy camper. Only in some perfect world could that happen. (
Imagine, by John Lennon, playing in the background.)
Nevertheless, these are the ideals that I strive to achieve.
Thanks for listening. I suggest that we put this thread to bed.
Regards,
Dave Schwartz
PS: Oh, I assure you that black boxes DO exist. How do you think all those whales beat the game?
