A question for online poker players and ADW bettors.

[badcompany]

I'll go with "None of the above."


But, if I'd have to pick one, I'll go with poker.

With trading you need a decent sized bankroll to get going and then it's highly unlikely that you're gonna make $$ immediately. There's almost invariably some "tuition" to be paid. There sure was for me.

Horse racing also has a learning curve which makes profits from the get go improbable, especially considering the state of the game and the inflated takeouts.

Poker, while not easy, allows a player to gain experience at low level games without having to make a major investment.

[thearmada]

I am within this age range as suggested here. I personally love the horses and would much rather bet on them than anything else. Personally of all gambling I have made my most money playing blackjack, then horses, then poker. I only can take so much card playing, but I can sit and watch the races for hours and hours.

For most of my friends they would probably bet either sports or on poker/cards. The reason? The games are easier to pick up and turn a profit off of and there is much more action. They would also bet sports because they follow sports much more than anything else days. Also with poker they can just sit around and play video games and wait till a good hand comes and not have to study a race in order to bet.

I wish more people my age would get into it like I do.

[Robert Goren]

I am somewhat surpised that no one mentioned that it is nearly impossible these days to make money as part time horse player. The amount of time it takes to locate a high ROI betting situlations is enormous. I suppose that you can write/buy a computer program to do a lot of the grunt work, even then you are going to spend a lot of time on it. I am sure someplace somewhere somebody has a computer that scans the PPs , locates a likely winner and makes the bet for them if the odds are right, but for most players that's a pipe dream.
We are talking making money here. For many horse players, it is thrill of the hunt that keeps them going not the actual making of money.

[mannyberrios]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

I am somewhat surpised that no one mentioned that it is nearly impossible these days to make money as part time horse player. The amount of time it takes to locate a high ROI betting situlations is enormous. I suppose that you can write/buy a computer program to do a lot of the grunt work, even then you are going to spend a lot of time on it. I am sure someplace somewhere somebody has a computer that scans the PPs , locates a likely winner and makes the bet for them if the odds are right, but for most players that's a pipe dream.
We are talking making money here. For many horse players, it is thrill of the hunt that keeps them going not the actual making of money.

Impossible for you

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by mannyberrios

Impossible for you

I actually showed a small net gain for 2012 thanks to a thread I did last summer on betting against bridge jumpers. Very small. The interest on SS disabilty checking deposit account was bigger, but it was a net gain. The ROI was about +$0.005 per hour.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

You don't feel trading can be "beaten?" It just might be the easiest of the three in my opinion...

In my comment I am mentioning binary options and day trading.

Binary options are comparable to any other form of gambling following a Bernoulli distribution (like craps or roulette) with a fix take out and as such it is impossible to beat.

Day trading in the form that was popularized in late '90s pretty much represents a form of gambling based in the well known fallacy of pattern identification (like baccarat players who try to predict the next hand based in the previous)....

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/...-trading_x.htm



Can 'trading' in general be beaten ?

The answer is clearly yes, The catch is that the very few who can beat the markets, besides their talent, experience and education they usually represent some form of an institutional investment having access to data, technology and personnel that no individual investor can even dream of.

Even having this type of support some of the top hedge funds have been accused for illegal operations (like inside info) something that proves the difficulty of the task...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...ts-hedge-funds

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...t-2232998.html

More than this we have plenty of examples of traders who at once were considered markets wizards eventually loosing huge amounts of money like for example Nicholas Maounis:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amaranth_Advisors

[hencicleva]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

I am somewhat surpised that no one mentioned that it is nearly impossible these days to make money as part time horse player. The amount of time it takes to locate a high ROI betting situlations is enormous. I suppose that you can write/buy a computer program to do a lot of the grunt work, even then you are going to spend a lot of time on it. I am sure someplace somewhere somebody has a computer that scans the PPs , locates a likely winner and makes the bet for them if the odds are right, but for most players that's a pipe dream.
We are talking making money here. For many horse players, it is thrill of the hunt that keeps them going not the actual making of money.

I wouldn't dispute any of this. Why is it getting harder to make a profit at the horses today? I get the impression that the consensus opinion is the steep decline in "dumb" money as horse racing declines in popularity. However, our real enemies are the whales...large teams of people with massive computing power. But through computers we do at least have access to all the data that they do.

Getting back to your original question, I think that as a 21 year old I would be seduced by the absolutely massive amounts of money that you can make in horse racing if you do get a winning computerized handicapping system.

Perhaps not a perfect analogy, but look at lotteries. It's not the likelyhood of winning but the huge amounts you could win that draws people in.

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

In my comment I am mentioning binary options and day trading.

Binary options are comparable to any other form of gambling following a Bernoulli distribution (like craps or roulette) with a fix take out and as such it is impossible to beat.

Day trading in the form that was popularized in late '90s pretty much represents a form of gambling based in the well known fallacy of pattern identification (like baccarat players who try to predict the next hand based in the previous)....

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/...-trading_x.htm



Can 'trading' in general be beaten ?

The answer is clearly yes, The catch is that the very few who can beat the markets, besides their talent, experience and education they usually represent some form of an institutional investment having access to data, technology and personnel that no individual investor can even dream of.

Even having this type of support some of the top hedge funds have been accused for illegal operations (like inside info) something that proves the difficulty of the task...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...ts-hedge-funds

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...t-2232998.html

More than this we have plenty of examples of traders who at once were considered markets wizards eventually loosing huge amounts of money like for example Nicholas Maounis:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amaranth_Advisors

The reason the "Wizards" go bust is the same reason that the non-wizards do, they overbet their bankroll, vis a vis leverage.

My Position Sizing thread addresses the psychological reasons why this happens.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=91058

[JBmadera]

Originally Posted by badcompany

The reason the "Wizards" go bust is the same reason that the non-wizards do, they overbet their bankroll, vis a vis leverage.

My Position Sizing thread addresses the psychological reasons why this happens.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=91058

I was going to post something similar. I have been eking out a decent existence trading futures and the real key has been to minimize leverage.

[PaceAdvantage]

Plenty of "professional" big name poker players go bust all the time...but you never see that side of the game on ESPN

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Plenty of "professional" big name poker players go bust all the time...but you never see that side of the game on ESPN

Another deceptive thing the Poker shows do is equate "Tournament" winnings with Profit.

That a player cashed 100k at tourneys tells you nothing about how much he won, or lost that year.

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Plenty of "professional" big name poker players go bust all the time...but you never see that side of the game on ESPN

That is true, but most of time the reason they go broke has nothing to do with poker. It is either drugs, women, life style, and/or gambling on things other than poker. More than a few have been taken for ride by bad/shady investment deals. Although there are a few who have won a big tournament and lost their winnings in cash games.
I will say this about horse players, as general rule the ones that win keep right on winning. Oh, sure maybe somebody will luck into a big pick 6 and give it back in a short period of time, but I do not thing of them as winning handicappers.

[guckers]

I got in to blackjack and counting cards when I was 18. Around 21 I started to play poker in casinos and online and sports betting (NCAA), 22 I started to trade Forex and Futures, now that I am 28 I am just getting in to horse racing and don't want to look back.

I find horses thrilling. Blackjack is just a joke when it comes to odds and isn't by any means a way to make a living. Poker is fun in person, mediocre online and as far as I know online poker is unregulated and easy to rig (full tilt). You're also investing hundreds of hours in a complicated game that can make you go broke quick. You can't get the big win in poker without having huge risk. I still like Forex/Futures but don't focus any of my efforts in these areas anymore because I want to focus more on horses. Futures/Forex is easy to grind out day after day.

I have a lot to learn about horses, but like I said before, I find this to be a thrilling sport. I get so damn bored with cards and bar charts.

edit: spelling

[mannyberrios]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

That is true, but most of time the reason they go broke has nothing to do with poker. It is either drugs, women, life style, and/or gambling on things other than poker. More than a few have been taken for ride by bad/shady investment deals. Although there are a few who have won a big tournament and lost their winnings in cash games.
I will say this about horse players, as general rule the ones that win keep right on winning. Oh, sure maybe somebody will luck into a big pick 6 and give it back in a short period of time, but I do not thing of them as winning handicappers.

Give me a break, if you get a bad run on cards, you lose

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by mannyberrios

Give me a break, if you get a bad run on cards, you lose

Once again, it comes down to money management. Guys get used to playing/betting/trading at a certain level and can't gear down when things aren't going well.