Del Mar BC Results

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by linrom1

But seeing so many horses struggle in that quicksand on the inside was an unwatchable horror story.

I agree that the inside part of the track compromised a lot of very good horses, especially on Saturday. A lot of paces were hot (as they often are in big fields of high quality horses) and that also contributed to how poorly some of the inside speeds ran, but no way I wanted any of my horses anywhere near the rail.

[LemonSoupKid]

Originally Posted by Tom

You could see from some of the overhead shots that some horses had virtually no shot ever getting clear.

What was your conclusion, then, Tom?

[JohnGalt1]

I bet $471 on Friday and lost $81.50.

I made win bets in 5 races and had 3 winners.

Saturday I bet $1041 and lost $85.30.

I made win bets in 9 races and had 2 winners. One was Wuheida, and I hit the $.50 tri in that race.

In reviewing the races and my bets, I realized the mistakes I made were betting too many horses off lay offs. Even Baffert horses couldn't over come layoffs on his good horses, even those I didn't bet.

In race 6 I made 3 win bets, very rare for me, On Paula'ssilverlining, Finest City, and Ami's Mesa. Morning lines were 8,12, and 20-1. They were all off lay offs. The winner was 30-1 ML Bar of Gold who had a recent race. Though Ami's Mesa lost by a nose.

In race 8 I liked Defrong, but Roy H had a recent race.

If you had a bad day, check to see how many horses you played who didn't have a recent race--even if they looked like the best horse, like I felt in many races. Even many of the foreign shippers had races in October this year.

In many races I disregard or minimize form/condition. The rule I have to keep reminding myself is a recent race is worth many workouts, even Baffert's 5 and 6 furlong bullets.

One thing we can't control as far as handicapping is trips.

I bet Lady Eli and Wuheida to win, and if Lady Eli won or finished second, my payoff would've been reduced. My handicapping was good, but I couldn't predict she'd have her leg lacerated.

I hope writing some of my reviewing process helps some of you as it does me.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

What was your conclusion, then, Tom?

Nothing earth-shattering.
If I ever encounter any horses coming out the BC turf races, I will probably give a pass to a poor race. Will have to watch a replay or check the charts.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Mc990

Exactly.... all races, including dirt seemed formful to me. Which winners were surprising? None of the winners even had to improve to win... just needed to pair up their best to date. Heck, Bar of Gold had the fastest TG figure coming in... albeit an isolated top. She was far from impossible.

I think the biggest problem is a lot of "fans" got caught up in some overhyped horses. The way some of these favorites were bet was ridiculous... made for some real nice overlays.

Lastly, more often than not this is what you'll get when you have cleanly run races. CD and others, please take notice! It's absolutely no coincidence that Baffert got shut out... even his horses that ran well this weekend were those who didn't run huge "out of town" figures this year.

Went to the sheets seminar on the Thursday before the races.

Bolt d oro was mentioned as an underlaid favorite. The leader of the seminar said he had decent numbers but others were on the improve and were capable of running as fast or faster as him

among the horse mentioned were good magic and solomini who were 11-1 and 9-1 respectively. and what kind of trip did you expect out of the 11 hole, a ground saving trip?

Allan