Discussing Friday's Breeders Cup card

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by linrom1

P-4 Comments
Key Players



Race 9
Stellar Wind is no match for the rest

I'm confused, do you mean that Stellar Wind is going to win, and that the rest of the field is no match for her? In the "Best Bet" thread you said that Elate was your Friday pick.

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

1. MENDELSSOHN - 8/1 ML, I wasn't crazy about this one. Tempted to make a 'c' for the connections. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

2. UNTAMED DOMAIN - 8/1 ML, Doesn't seem to be very talented. Tempted to make a 'c' for the connections. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

3. SANDS OF MALI - 30/1 ML, I love that he's stretching out. I love that he's coming off of a troubled trip where he was bet. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'C' (unlikely unknown) May consider an underneath key in a tri or super.

4. CATHOLIC BOY - 12/1 ML, Solid horse. I'm guessing that he's not top class. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

5. BECKFORD - 8/1 ML, Love that he's stretching out at a good price, but I'm not sure if he's a top contender. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown)

6. MASAR - 9/2 ML, I don't have a good understanding of this horse. Qatar Prix didn't wow me. Great company lines. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown). I may upgrade to a 'B'

7. JAMES GARFIELD - 6/1 ML, I don't have a good understanding of this horse. Great company lines. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown). I may upgrade to a 'B'

8. VOTING CONTROL - 8/1 ML, Loved Pilgrim Stakes effort. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'A' (win contender)

9. ENCUMBERED - 15/1 ML, Seems to be outclassed here. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

10. FLAMEAWAY -20/1 ML, As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

11. SNAPPER SINCLAIR - 15/1 ML, Intriguing. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

12. HEMP HEMP HURRAY - 8/1 ML, This horse bothers me. I'm tempted to call this one an unlikely-unknown 'c'. Only thing I don't love is his pressing style, that has come from sprints. Deeper waters. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

13. MY BOY JACK - 8/1 ML, Nice run in the Zuma Beach. Figures to be outclassed today. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

14. RAJASINGHE - 30/ML, Seems to be one of the weaker foreign shippers. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

A race pretty-much devoid of speed with no need-the-lead types. A few pressers , & ( and if he runs).

HEMP HEMP HURRAY has got my attention too. He got caught at Woodbine, where I believe, it's hard to wire the field( any Woodbine turf players can confirm this?). Notice how he won his first two races, on or near the lead, true they were sprints, but I like the speed stretching out angle. If the turf course cooperates, he could be hard to catch.

But if enters the fray, that angle is dead.

[linrom1]

Originally Posted by Redboard

I'm confused, do you mean that Stellar Wind is going to win, and that the rest of the field is no match for her? In the "Best Bet" thread you said that Elate was your Friday pick.

Yeah.....In a P-4, Stellar Wind is the best choice. I would single her and go deeper in other legs. This race is 'tough' as a case can be made for 5 of these, so I am keeping it simple and going with proven horse. I can't single Elate here, but I can Stellar Wind!

When I said that Elate was my best bet, I didn't expect her to be one of the 3 co-favorites at 2 to 3-1. But I will bet Elate in Distaff/Classic DD with Collected.

Sorry for the confusion.

[Tom]

I think the Distaff this years is outstanding.
I am hoping a lot of money goes on those who were too afraid to race in recent months. That 9th furlong is going to expose those not properly prepared for a top class race.

[LemonSoupKid]

I'm focusing on the 5 and 6 in this race , I agree that it is a great race especially to end the multi race wagers

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by plainolebill

#1 Best Performance started from the 8 hole in the Miss Grillo - I don't bet NY tracks often but IIRC outside posts in routes on the inner turf are disadvantaged - is that correct?

It can be a disadvantage.

I re-watched that race, and looked at trakus.

She had to assume a deep-stalking/closing position because of the break.

I don't think she was going to be on the pace anyway, but she didn't have other options.
She was a bit wide, but only ran 8 more feet than the winner Significant Form(both were wider than the rest of the field).

Could be some value.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Redboard

A race pretty-much devoid of speed with no need-the-lead types. A few pressers , & ( and if he runs).

HEMP HEMP HURRAY has got my attention too. He got caught at Woodbine, where I believe, it's hard to wire the field( any Woodbine turf players can confirm this?). Notice how he won his first two races, on or near the lead, true they were sprints, but I like the speed stretching out angle. If the turf course cooperates, he could be hard to catch.

But if enters the fray, that angle is dead.

Good insight.

You make a huge point about the race shape.
Have to use Hemp.


Similar thought upgrades Archanova in the Marathon.

Hard Aces, Destin and Archanova ought to be in the cat-bird seat unless someone else can really make up ground in a big effort.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

1.BEST PERFORMANCE - 12/1 ML, More of a price to hit the board than a win contender. Two back ran slightly against the grain. Last time ran nearly as well as the Chad Brown filly. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

2.HAPPILY - 9/2 ML, Strong record. Looked good visually last time in the French race. The only question I can even come up with is whether she will like a harder surface. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'A' (win contender).

3.NOW YOU'RE TALKING - 30/1 ML, Looks like a tremendous value. She will love the mile distance. Probably wants to run counter clockwise(not a major factor in my decision, but could be a nice bonus). As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'B' (needs favorable trip). Tempted to key in vertical exotics.

4.MADELINE - 20/1 ML, Love that she's stretching out to a mile in the US at a big price. She's not as good as NOW YOU'RE TALKING, but she's also a good value. As far as win/multis I have her rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown).

5.ULTIMA D - 12/1 ML, Big step up in class. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

6.ORBULUTION - 20/1 ML, Shouldn't be in the race. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

7.CAPLA TEMPTRESS - 6/1 ML, Short on value if ml is true. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely) Would include underneath on coverage verticals.

8.SIGNIFICANT FORM - 8/1 ML, Solid horse from a top barn. As far as win/multis I have her rated a 'B' (needs favorable trip).

9.FATALE BERE - 9/1 ML, All out to win minor stake last time. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

10.SEPTEMBER - 6/1 ML, Solid horse from a top barn. As far as win/multis I have her rated a 'B' (needs favorable trip).

11.RUSHING FALL - 7/2 ML, Good kick @ Kee. Probably Brown's 'a' horse. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'A' (win contender).

12.DIXIE MOON - 20/1 ML, Looks to be outclassed. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

13.JULIET CAPULET - 12/1 ML, She will be a fair price and is a little bit scary. As far as win/multis I have her rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown).

14.MOON DASH - 15/1 ML, Looks to be outclassed. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

two 'a's , three 'b's, and two 'c's... This is a deep race.

Rushing Falls sheet#'s don't tower over these like her odds will suggest. Going w/September for the upset

[Afleet]

No one seems to like Sharp Azteca may go overlaid and he is my pick.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by Afleet

Rushing Falls sheet#'s don't tower over these like her odds will suggest. Going w/September for the upset

Game Day!

Wish I knew how to post pics on here. Bix seats are on the freaking finish line!

Love Happily. .

[Mulerider]

Originally Posted by Afleet

No one seems to like Sharp Azteca may go overlaid and he is my pick.

I'm on him.

[azeri98]

Actully no, a lot of horses on the Woodbine turf course win from the lead or just off, you would think with the long stretch it would favor closers but it doesn't

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Game Day!

Wish I knew how to post pics on here. Bix seats are on the freaking finish line!

Love Happily. .

Have a good time! Happily has a fantastic pedigree, but like Septembers pedigree a little better

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by Afleet

Have a good time! Happily has a fantastic pedigree, but like Septembers pedigree a little better

I'm all good with a September/Happily exacta.

[JohnGalt1]

My $20/40 win/place bets Friday, or horses I like if the odds are high enough, are:

1) Hinx

2) Fritz Johansen and Ritzy AP both to win

3) City of Light

4) pass

5) Destin

6) pass

7) Sharp Azteca and Mor Spirit both to win

8) pass

9) pass

10) Vigor

Most of my selections are in the top 3 of the Performance Class Ratings and top 3 of pace/speed ratings with no form defects.