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10-31-2017, 10:38 PM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Missouri
Posts: 2,190
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World Approval could not have gotten a better draw right outside two horses that will be sent. Should sit the perfect trip if good enough. Ribchester sheet#s are not unbeatable
Last edited by Afleet; 10-31-2017 at 10:41 PM.
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10-31-2017, 11:24 PM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,430
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Quote:
Originally Posted by linrom1
It's this time of the year when 'insiders' in racing look to set themselves up for the year: money for winter vacations, etc by touting false favorites so they can create tremendous value for their own bets.
I am ready to listen, read and watch to ferret out these false betting favorites.
Right now I am getting a bit of impression that FREE DROP WILLY is being touted, but, it's early.
What horses do you think are being advanced as false favorites?
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Really? you've got much more invested in message board discussion than actual betting. Get a grip.
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11-01-2017, 12:44 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 930
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid
Seriously, not to pile on (though I did make a thread a while back on precisely this topic, lol) but I almost always toss his, too. Can't recall a big race he's ever won.
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Here's Mike's Saturday late pick 4. Kudos to him for at least putting it out there:
1, 4, 5*, 6*, 8, 10*, 12* with 11 with 3*, 4*, 5*, 6, 10, 12*, 13 with 1**, 2, 5*
He loves Arrogate. I think he might be great value since he's sputtered recently and there at Del Mar, but his endorsement gives me pause 
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11-01-2017, 05:15 PM
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#19
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Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: near Philadelphia
Posts: 4,560
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I think Steller Wind ranks up there as a very vulnerable favorite in the Distaff, fwiw.
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11-01-2017, 08:34 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 121
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Masar at 9/2, depending on what Happily and September do in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
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11-01-2017, 08:47 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 930
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Quote:
Originally Posted by reckless
I think Steller Wind ranks up there as a very vulnerable favorite in the Distaff, fwiw.
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I agree with this and likely will try to take advantage of it on my P4; 'capping the Friday card tonight.
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11-01-2017, 08:50 PM
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#22
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Resurrectionist
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 3,615
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid
I agree with this and likely will try to take advantage of it on my P4; 'capping the Friday card tonight.
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SW is such a nice horse but I agree. At a mile and an eighth I think she is so vulnerable. Elate is the wise guy play but I will make a stand with Forever Unbridled.
__________________
Battle is the most magnificent competition in which a human being can indulge. It brings out all that is best; it removes all that is base. All men are afraid in battle. The coward is the one who lets his fear overcome his sense of duty. Duty is the essence of manhood.
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11-02-2017, 10:49 AM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 930
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jocko699
SW is such a nice horse but I agree. At a mile and an eighth I think she is so vulnerable. Elate is the wise guy play but I will make a stand with Forever Unbridled.
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Sounds like me you and a LOT of others
This race will depend on price. That's the only thing I don't like about P4-5-6 wagers ...
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11-02-2017, 03:22 PM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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Friday Race #10: SKMaddy GR-3 5 F on the Turf.
M-L favorite  Firsthand Report is one of the worst favorites on the card. The highest speed figure this girl has run is at 1 1/16. This race has a ton of speed in it and the last time she saw a pace like this at this distance she gave up. there are 4 horses in here that I like.
 So Sweetitiz 6-1 Has shown the ability to handle the pace and still finish well. But the layoff is really bothersome.
 Instant Reflex 15-1 1st race of her life showed the ability to handle the pace. Stretched out in last and might have proved she is a sprinter at this moment, but has potential.
 Long Hot Summer 9-2 One of only 2 runners in this race that has shown ability to run off the pace. Has the speed figures to win and gets the edge to be on top.
 Street Surrender 8-1 The "other" off the pace runner in here, but has really shown to be a distance horse and not a sprinter. The fact that she just might come running at the end makes her a contender here.
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11-02-2017, 07:58 PM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Location: st louis
Posts: 2,986
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jefftune
I'm hearing nothing but good things about Ribchester. Thinkin he's the one to beat.
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Ribchester wins if he runs his race, he is so much superior to this field.
__________________
You will never achieve 100% if 99% is okay!
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11-02-2017, 08:16 PM
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#26
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Resurrectionist
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 3,615
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
Friday Race #10: SKMaddy GR-3 5 F on the Turf.
M-L favorite Firsthand Report is one of the worst favorites on the card. The highest speed figure this girl has run is at 1 1/16. This race has a ton of speed in it and the last time she saw a pace like this at this distance she gave up. there are 4 horses in here that I like.
So Sweetitiz 6-1 Has shown the ability to handle the pace and still finish well. But the layoff is really bothersome.
Instant Reflex 15-1 1st race of her life showed the ability to handle the pace. Stretched out in last and might have proved she is a sprinter at this moment, but has potential.
Long Hot Summer 9-2 One of only 2 runners in this race that has shown ability to run off the pace. Has the speed figures to win and gets the edge to be on top.
Street Surrender 8-1 The "other" off the pace runner in here, but has really shown to be a distance horse and not a sprinter. The fact that she just might come running at the end makes her a contender here. |
I believe  Vigor 5-1 will run huge tomorrow.
__________________
Battle is the most magnificent competition in which a human being can indulge. It brings out all that is best; it removes all that is base. All men are afraid in battle. The coward is the one who lets his fear overcome his sense of duty. Duty is the essence of manhood.
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11-03-2017, 12:56 AM
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#27
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 980
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jocko699
I believe Vigor 5-1 will run huge tomorrow. |
It's a single for me in a saver p3.
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11-03-2017, 12:48 PM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Missouri
Posts: 2,190
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zico20
Ribchester wins if he runs his race, he is so much superior to this field.
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not according to the sheets
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11-04-2017, 02:28 AM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
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Drefong is the phony favorite, IMO. Only two starts this year, and tossed his rider in one of them. Caught a field with a lack of early speed and rode a good rail in the Forego. There is no logical reason to bet this horse.
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11-04-2017, 08:49 AM
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#30
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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Agree - Drefong.
If he was anything, why only two starts in a year?
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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