Florida Derby

[raybo]

Originally Posted by RXB

I'm not quite understanding some of this blame-Napravnik and Bobby-didn't-get-a-chance sentiment.

Merit Man is coming out of a succession of frontrunning sprint efforts. Bobby has been running in routes and the last time he sprinted, in a 7f race back at Saratoga, he was sitting fourth and three lengths behind at the first call. Merit Man appeared to be the likeliest frontrunner and once he outbroke/outsped Bobby, there wasn't much Napravnik could do as another horse went and pressed from the outside so she couldn't swing off the rail into a pressing position outside of Merit Man.

As it was, the horse didn't have a bad trip. He was in a nearby chasing position while saving ground. It might not have been absolutely ideal for him but it wasn't bad.

Ok, I give up, but being placed 4th half way to the first turn is not the ride I was expecting. That was before the horse got hemmed in on the rail, by the way. After that, the horse could do nothing but stay on the rail behind a slow pace.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by cj

I don't see how anyone could watch Shanghai Bobby in that race and think a change in tactics was going to make him competitive.

I think CJ nailed the main point here.

If Shanghai Bobby had his ideal trip (leading on that slow pace), he probably hits the board instead of Merit Man. He didn't have an answer for the winner, whether he got a dream trip or not.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I think CJ nailed the main point here.

If Shanghai Bobby had his ideal trip (leading on that slow pace), he probably hits the board instead of Merit Man. He didn't have an answer for the winner, whether he got a dream trip or not.

Probably not. Just wish I'd gotten what I bargained for with SB.

[precocity]

Originally Posted by mostpost

There were three races at a mile and an eighth at Gulfstream today. The Florida Derby was the slowest of the three. Dreaming of Julie was two seconds faster in the Oaks. Orb is a nice horse and will be a contender in the Derby. Itsmyluckyday was overrated. The Derby winner will be racing next Saturday in the Wood. I do not mean Vyjack.

lol wouldn't throw vyjack out yet he has some gears on him.

[Valuist]

I was very underwhelmed by the Florida Derby. Orb did a nice job of overcoming a slow pace but the rest of the field isn't much. Itsmyluckyday had no excuse, and the 3rd and 4th place runners likely will never win an Ohio or Indiana Derby. As for Shanghai Bobby, if he couldn't hold on at 1 1/16 miles at GP, with the short run to the turn and the short stretch run, he has no chance at longer distances. Point him toward the Met Mile and the BC Mile.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Valuist

I was very underwhelmed by the Florida Derby. Orb did a nice job of overcoming a slow pace but the rest of the field isn't much. Itsmyluckyday had no excuse, and the 3rd and 4th place runners likely will never win an Ohio or Indiana Derby. As for Shanghai Bobby, if he couldn't hold on at 1 1/16 miles at GP, with the short run to the turn and the short stretch run, he has no chance at longer distances. Point him toward the Met Mile and the BC Mile.

Man this stuff just irritates the heck out of me. SB gets the 1st post in the Holy Bull and is urged to the lead because of that post position, then gets caught by a track record winner, and all of a sudden he can't go 1 1/16m, and certainly not longer?

In the FD, again in the 1st post, which I have watched over and over the last couple of days, shortly after the break, Rosie's head turns to the right, she sees the 3 and the eventual pace setter coming over and almost immediately stood up in the saddle and SB's head comes up. I didn't notice that until today. Rosie obviously saw what was fixing to happen and she made the conscious decision to not go for the lead. I finally found a statement by Pletcher where he said they made the decision, before the race, that they would not send SB early, I assume because of what happened in the Holy Bull. That made Rosie's decision easy, let SB get hemmed in on the rail. That, IMO, was the move that prevented SB from having any kind of chance at all, not that he would have won the race if he'd been on the lead (we'll never know that, either way), but when you put an early horse on the rail, in very close quarters, and behind a slow pace, you are putting him in a very stressful position. As we all know, stress can be just as tiring as a fast pace. I attribute SD's lack of kick to, either needing a rest, or to that early, and continuing, close quarters stress behind a slow pace (24 and change).

I may be wrong, but I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see SB in a classic distance race, at some point in the future.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by raybo

Man this stuff just irritates the heck out of me. SB gets the 1st post in the Holy Bull and is urged to the lead because of that post position, then gets caught by a track record winner, and all of a sudden he can't go 1 1/16m, and certainly not longer?

In the FD, again in the 1st post, which I have watched over and over the last couple of days, shortly after the break, Rosie's head turns to the right, she sees the 3 and the eventual pace setter coming over and almost immediately stood up in the saddle and SB's head comes up. I didn't notice that until today. Rosie obviously saw what was fixing to happen and she made the conscious decision to not go for the lead. I finally found a statement by Pletcher where he said they made the decision, before the race, that they would not send SB early, I assume because of what happened in the Holy Bull. That made Rosie's decision easy, let SB get hemmed in on the rail. That, IMO, was the move that prevented SB from having any kind of chance at all, not that he would have won the race if he'd been on the lead (we'll never know that, either way), but when you put an early horse on the rail, in very close quarters, and behind a slow pace, you are putting him in a very stressful position. As we all know, stress can be just as tiring as a fast pace. I attribute SD's lack of kick to, either needing a rest, or to that early, and continuing, close quarters stress behind a slow pace (24 and change).

I may be wrong, but I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see SB in a classic distance race, at some point in the future.

If you see him in one, toss him out. The one hole was an advantage in the Holy Bull. There was no Merit Man in the race. There was no blistering pace. Short run to the turn, and the short finish line. If you are considered the best horse going in, and can't win under optimal circumstances, you clearly are overrated.

The field from the BC Juvenile has been exposed.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Valuist

If you see him in one, toss him out. The one hole was an advantage in the Holy Bull. There was no Merit Man in the race. There was no blistering pace. Short run to the turn, and the short finish line. If you are considered the best horse going in, and can't win under optimal circumstances, you clearly are overrated.

The field from the BC Juvenile has been exposed.

We'll see. I think, under the circumstances, it's far too early to write him off. Not saying he will be bet by me, depends on the field, etc., but to just toss him out of hand? Crazy.

But, if I do want to bet him in the future, will you take my bet, at track odds?

[sammy the sage]

Originally Posted by raybo

We'll see. I think, under the circumstances, it's far too early to write him off. Not saying he will be bet by me, depends on the field, etc., but to just toss him out of hand? Crazy.

But, if I do want to bet him in the future, will you take my bet, at track odds?

...horse has BEEN retired....before your post...

[RXB]

Originally Posted by sammy the sage

...horse has BEEN retired....before your post...

Enlighten us as to where it's been reported that Shanghai Bobby has been retired...

[raybo]

Originally Posted by sammy the sage

...horse has BEEN retired....before your post...

Unless they lied about his health being fine, it makes no sense to retire him after losing the Florida Derby. The future stud price just took a nose dive. The better idea would be to establish him, as a 3yo, at least. A 2yo success doesn't make a profitable stud.

If they have indeed decided to retire him, that just follows the last bad decision they made concerning him, "he likes the lead so let's force him to run in traffic behind a slow pace", sheeesh!!

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by raybo

We'll see. I think, under the circumstances, it's far too early to write him off. Not saying he will be bet by me, depends on the field, etc., but to just toss him out of hand? Crazy.

But, if I do want to bet him in the future, will you take my bet, at track odds?

It looks like we won't get that chance. He's off the Triple Crown trail, although Pletcher says there's nothing wrong with him. Coolmore already making their plans with him. I wouldn't be surprised if he never races again.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...s-triple-crown

Originally Posted by Valuist

It looks like we won't get that chance. He's off the Triple Crown trail, although Pletcher says there's nothing wrong with him. Coolmore already making their plans with him. I wouldn't be surprised if he never races again.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...s-triple-crown

There's nothing obviously wrong with him but we will go over him thoroughly and give him some time off to fully recover from his long campaign," Pletcher said in the April 1 release. "He'll be sent to Payton Training Center today and allowed to have the down time that he seems to need right now."

Long campaign??! Since when is 5 starts as a 2yo and 2 as a 3yo a long campaign? (obviously this is rhetorical, Valuist). There is no problem with this guy and they need to run him in the Woody Stephens, Amsterdam, King's Bishop, Kelso, and BC Dirt Mile. There. I just mapped out the rest of his 3yo season for Pletcher and Co. I'll take my payment via cashier's check or cold, hard cash please.

Long campaign... pffft.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by peeptoad

Long campaign??! Since when is 5 starts as a 2yo and 2 as a 3yo a long campaign? (obviously this is rhetorical, Valuist). There is no problem with this guy and they need to run him in the Woody Stephens, Amsterdam, King's Bishop, Kelso, and BC Dirt Mile. There. I just mapped out the rest of his 3yo season for Pletcher and Co. I'll take my payment via cashier's check or cold, hard cash please.

Long campaign... pffft.

He's Uncle Mo 2.0

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Valuist

It looks like we won't get that chance. He's off the Triple Crown trail, although Pletcher says there's nothing wrong with him. Coolmore already making their plans with him. I wouldn't be surprised if he never races again.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...s-triple-crown

That was released Monday, he's going to a training camp. Coolmore's statement, from another site, said they planned to run him at least through his 3yo season before thinking of retirement. We'll see.