Gronkowski as a Legit Contender - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

MadVindication · 06-04-2018, 03:33 PM

I like that he's got Jose Ortiz on him. Might as well bet on the jocks in this race.

Anyone good at comparing UK races to American? What's the difference in level of competition and speed? And the distances/tracks he raced?

I'm not worried about Gronk'ski handling dirt.

I just hope the real Gronk doesn't throw down a pile of cash on him and squish his odds but don't think it's likely. Or Gronk fans bet him willy-nilly

So no brisnet runstyle for him on that free PP. Is he a closer, presser, plodder. hmm.

papillon · 06-04-2018, 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MadVindication

I like that he's got Jose Ortiz on him. Might as well bet on the jocks in this race.

Anyone good at comparing UK races to American? What's the difference in level of competition and speed? And the distances/tracks he raced?

I'm not worried about Gronk'ski handling dirt.

I just hope the real Gronk doesn't throw down a pile of cash on him and squish his odds but don't think it's likely. Or Gronk fans bet him willy-nilly

So no brisnet runstyle for him on that free PP. Is he a closer, presser, plodder. hmm.

https://youtu.be/BfXOzH1b8aE

If you want to make an Aussie's eyes tear-up with laughter, tout a Lonhro for 12fs.

Ribot Roboto · 06-04-2018, 07:47 PM

He’s been a mile specialist like his daddy but he’s got Lucky as his broodmare sire so he might be capable of going longer. I finally put my finger on what bothers me about him, I see no turn of foot. He’s just a one gear grinder that wears down his competition.
Now that might be a good thing in the Belmont and he looks good in his works and should be fit but I’m guessing that he’s going to be on E long before they get to the wire.

Robert Fischer · 06-04-2018, 11:41 PM

I haven't seen anything to think that he is good enough to contend for the win.

However, second, third and fourth place in the Belmont could well be decided by a 'Loser's Game' and not a 'Winner's Game'.

Sure... Perhaps Vino Rosso will fire and 'win' 2nd.
Tenfold has some fringe potential of 'winning' a runner's-up placing as well. He was second-best in the Preakness, but faltered a bit late. He also faltered just a touch at the end of the Arkansas Derby in spite of the pace carrying horses late. Unreliable, but has potential to 'win' 2nd...

But failing a race where Vino and/or Tenfold 'put it all together', - second place in this Belmont is going to be a 'Loser's Game'. In a loser's game we may have 6 first-tier contenders (Vino Rosso, Tenfold, Blended Citizen, Hofburg, Bravazo, Gronkowski) and 4 or 5 members of that group will 'lose' 2nd. The only 'non-loser', or the best trip of the couple of 'non-loser's will get 2nd.

Gronkowski is an unknown quantity. He's not a Justify. He may be outclassed. But I don't know that he's outclassed. I haven't seen anything to suggest that he doesn't have a chance to prevail in a loser's game. His form doesn't show anything to say he can't. He'll love the added distance (he has a shot to get a check in the Belmont, but he'd have no shot in a Graded Stakes at a Mile in the United States). Chad Brown is a smart dude and understands the loser's game concept very well. While he's not my pick for 2nd, and he's not my 'value key' on my straighter tickets, I have to 'grudgingly include' Gronkowski 2nd-4th on any semblance of a 'coverage ticket'.

jay68802 · 06-05-2018, 03:01 AM

Has to be respected on the fact he has won 4 in a row. His last win was in a tough group. Can he transfer synthetic form to the dirt? Have to say yes and let him prove otherwise if you are looking for coverage.

lamboguy · 06-05-2018, 05:19 AM

in my opinion, the only way JUSTIFY gets beat is if he doesn't take to the surface right away in the 3 days has to get acclimated to it. many horses that come to Belmont for the first time without training over the surface do crazy things. that being said its very unlikely to happen with Baffert training the horse. horse prepared is Baffert's middle name.

Robert Fischer · 06-05-2018, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Tenfold has some fringe potential of 'winning' a runner's-up placing as well. He was second-best in the Preakness, but faltered a bit late. He also faltered just a touch at the end of the Arkansas Derby in spite of the pace carrying horses late. Unreliable, but has potential to 'win' 2nd...

sorry, 3rd best, Good Magic did more running. Slipped my mind.

Justify/Good Magic/Tenfold/Bravazo in how I had Preakness raw performance.

Andy Asaro · 06-05-2018, 09:31 PM

I doubt Chad Brown would run him here if he didn't have a shot. He had a minor injury (not positive) and only has two works. Doesn't make sense to think he's NOT better than looked from his PP's.

Grits · 06-05-2018, 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

I doubt Chad Brown would run him here if he didn't have a shot. He had a minor injury (not positive) and only has two works. Doesn't make sense to think he's NOT better than looked from his PP's.

I don't know about his ability to get the 1 1/2 .... just as we don't know this about any of them. But I do know we watched him gallop this morning and he is stunning. Incredibly fit!! A serious WOW factor!!

Andy Asaro · 06-05-2018, 09:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grits

I don't know about his ability to get the 1 1/2 .... just as we don't know this about any of them. But I do know we watched him gallop this morning and he is stunning. Incredibly fit!! A serious WOW factor!!

Thanks for that insight.

jocko699 · 06-05-2018, 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grits

I don't know about his ability to get the 1 1/2 .... just as we don't know this about any of them. But I do know we watched him gallop this morning and he is stunning. Incredibly fit!! A serious WOW factor!!

And I expect him to be galloping the whole race. I have a better shot at winning if I was entered.

letswastemoney · 06-05-2018, 10:48 PM

Gronkowski's second dam produced Flashy Bull, for what it's worth.

MadVindication · 06-06-2018, 10:07 AM

Thanks for the input. I will have to play him somehow. The 12-1 is a bit surprising since he's from overseas.

Since Gronk'ski has won all his races it at least means he consistently passes horses. If it's a losers game then he might be one of the least likely to fade and run with the small herd once they're all tiring physically and some mentally.

I figure he can't be a deep closer type having that win record.

Grits · 06-30-2018, 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jocko699

And I expect him to be galloping the whole race. I have a better shot at winning if I was entered.

I haven't been around since a day or so before the Belmont....hadn't seen this.

This attitude worked out well for you didn't it!!!!

GMB@BP · 06-30-2018, 10:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grits

I haven't been around since a day or so before the Belmont....hadn't seen this.

This attitude worked out well for you didn't it!!!!

In the end he was a non threating second, never close to winning. I give him credit for beating distance challenged horses though, good on him.