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Old 11-07-2016, 11:19 PM   #61
reckless
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sammy the sage
Repo's of cars just skyrocketed nationwide...very BAD sign...

My own business is doing half of normal the last 4 months...just like early 07....very BAD sign... would tread very careful...

By the way...for the APTLY named poster "Reckless" ..those companies that seem undervalued....they keep giving GIANT BONUS stock options that WILL BE exercised at some point....destroying investors equity...maybe...just maybe that's priced in...
Stock options and insider selling have been a bone of contention with me for ages. And the insiders at Gilead have been over doing it, as I see it. But if you know someone who needs a drug to combat HIV or Hepatitis C, will all this insider selling affect your thinking about helping them? Will you suggest that maybe they shouldn't take these great drugs since all the bosses are unloading their stock options .... I don't think so.

As for buying the stock or not, that's your choice. I am just trying to give people a shot, along with a valid reason, one that has helped make me a fairly wealthy guy, if truth be known. Unlike many of you guys that hide in the shadows just waiting to knock, insult and get snarky, while adding little or nothing to the community. That's OK by me too; if it's the type of life you choose to lead.

I have noticed in my near 30-35 years of investing there are always doom and gloomers out there. The end of the world was always just this close and right around the corner. And the stock market is oh so near over too, just inching toward that cliff so hang on tight.
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Old 11-08-2016, 12:08 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by reckless
I have noticed in my near 30-35 years of investing there are always doom and gloomers out there. The end of the world was always just this close and right around the corner. And the stock market is oh so near over too, just inching toward that cliff so hang on tight.
Did you know that when the Depression started with the fall of the Stock Market in 1929, it fully didn't recover until 1955? Do you think this stock market is legit, after the FED basically printed $4 Trillion to loan freely to the Major Corps in the nation, to prop them up artificially? This is NOT the same market that we slowly built solid wealth from, those days have been long over......Stay away from the market, sell it all, you'll be glad you listened..
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Old 11-20-2016, 09:11 AM   #63
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[QUOTE=ReplayRandall]Did you know that when the Depression started with the fall of the Stock Market in 1929, it fully didn't recover until 1955? Do you think this stock market is legit, after the FED basically printed $4 Trillion to loan freely to the Major Corps in the nation, to prop them up artificially? This is NOT the same market that we slowly built solid wealth from, those days have been long over......Stay away from the market, sell it all, you'll be glad you listened..[/QUOTE
It's just a matter of time....

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/t...145033636.html
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Old 11-21-2016, 08:46 PM   #64
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Back on July 11 the Zweig model I keep gave a major buy signal when the ratio of up stocks to down stocks over a 10 day period was greater than 2 to 1. This happens rarely, but when it does it signals momentum caused by heavy buying. The signal is usually good for 6 months and the average increase in the market is 15%.

The S&P was at 2137 that day. Today, it is at 2198 -- up about 3%. I don't see it going up 12% more by January 15, but the rally may extend longer than 6 months and eventually the S&P could hit 2457.

On October 27 there was a small sell signal when the Value Line Index fell 4% from a recent high. I think this was due to the uncertainty of the election.

On November 9, the day after the election, the Value Line Index had risen by 5% -- which was a buy signal. The market had time to pause and reflect and realized that Trump winning would not be the end of the world. The S&P is up 1.5% since the election.

I went to about 50% cash on the Oct 27 sell signal.

On Nov 7, two days before the election, I anticipated a rise in the market. I bought a bunch of shares in 4 different companies with very low prices that ranged from $1.27 per share to 4.30 per share. Those shares are up 5.1% since Nov 7.

1.) I think the market is going higher based on buying momentum and 2.) small stocks tend to outperform large stocks at the end of the year and into the new year due to tax loss selling.

I bought PDLI, CPSS, PACD, and STLY Nov 7 and bought more PDLI on Nov 16.

STLY has been a disappointment, but it only cost $1.27 per share. It's down to $1 now -- about a 21% loss.

PDLI is down 2%.

CPSS is up 9% and PACD is up 32%.

I'm happy with a low risk, 5% gain after only two weeks. My goal is to make 50% per year. Buffett says he could make 50% per year if he only had a small amount to invest.

A 5% gain in two weeks is about a 125% annualized gain.

Last edited by highnote; 11-21-2016 at 08:50 PM.
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Old 11-22-2016, 06:27 PM   #65
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Don't fight the tape! Bought some AMD at around $6.50, and hanging on for the ride.
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Old 11-22-2016, 06:52 PM   #66
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Bought some more GILD today... 300 more shares since my very well-timed and prolific post of November 2 of a generational buying opportunity. My per share cost basis is now just under $75, not counting dividends, which I should count.

Yes, GILD hasn't really joined this rally but my time horizon is in years and not months or minutes. And I have been able to buy more shares of this extremely undervalued, growing company because of its current out-of-favor status.
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Old 11-22-2016, 06:55 PM   #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by reckless
Bought some more GILD today... 300 more shares since my very well-timed and prolific post of November 2 of a generational buying opportunity. My per share cost basis is now just under $75, not counting dividends, which I should count.

Yes, GILD hasn't really joined this rally but my time horizon is in years and not months or minutes. And I have been able to buy more shares of this extremely undervalued, growing company because of its current out-of-favor status.
Reckless, we get along, you know that right? In regards to your Stock posts....Have you lost your mind? Go back and read post #62 again...
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Old 11-22-2016, 08:30 PM   #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ocala Mike
Don't fight the tape! Bought some AMD at around $6.50, and hanging on for the ride.
Agree. It doesn't matter why people are buying. What matters is that they ARE buying. Don't fight the tape and don't fight the fed.
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Old 12-06-2016, 06:31 PM   #69
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Sold PDLI at 2.17 and STLY at 0.95 last week both at about a 26% loss. They weren't acting as I had hoped. PDLI is at 2.18. STLY is at 0.90. I probably sold at the bottom, but I don't like the fact that PDLI issued a convertible offering which is dilutive to existing shareholders. That is why the price dropped. Of course, they announced the news the day I bought it. I should have sold immediately and would have only been out the round trip commission.

I bought DHT and UUUU yesterday. DHT down 1%. UUUU up 9%.

Still holding PACD and CPSS. They're up 42% and 24% , respectively.

These "cigar butt" trades are ahead 0.06%. That's 15% annualized. The goal is to make 50% ROI per year. It should be doable.



Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
Back on July 11 the Zweig model I keep gave a major buy signal when the ratio of up stocks to down stocks over a 10 day period was greater than 2 to 1. This happens rarely, but when it does it signals momentum caused by heavy buying. The signal is usually good for 6 months and the average increase in the market is 15%.

The S&P was at 2137 that day. Today, it is at 2198 -- up about 3%. I don't see it going up 12% more by January 15, but the rally may extend longer than 6 months and eventually the S&P could hit 2457.

On October 27 there was a small sell signal when the Value Line Index fell 4% from a recent high. I think this was due to the uncertainty of the election.

On November 9, the day after the election, the Value Line Index had risen by 5% -- which was a buy signal. The market had time to pause and reflect and realized that Trump winning would not be the end of the world. The S&P is up 1.5% since the election.

I went to about 50% cash on the Oct 27 sell signal.

On Nov 7, two days before the election, I anticipated a rise in the market. I bought a bunch of shares in 4 different companies with very low prices that ranged from $1.27 per share to 4.30 per share. Those shares are up 5.1% since Nov 7.

1.) I think the market is going higher based on buying momentum and 2.) small stocks tend to outperform large stocks at the end of the year and into the new year due to tax loss selling.

I bought PDLI, CPSS, PACD, and STLY Nov 7 and bought more PDLI on Nov 16.

STLY has been a disappointment, but it only cost $1.27 per share. It's down to $1 now -- about a 21% loss.

PDLI is down 2%.

CPSS is up 9% and PACD is up 32%.

I'm happy with a low risk, 5% gain after only two weeks. My goal is to make 50% per year. Buffett says he could make 50% per year if he only had a small amount to invest.

A 5% gain in two weeks is about a 125% annualized gain.
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Old 12-07-2016, 09:55 AM   #70
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Highnote.... your stock investments seems to be of the speculative variety. Do you think that's the best way to go forward, especially since we are in a generational buying opportunity?

The Trump presidency will prove to be a boom for all stocks, but most definitely very large capitalization companies plus well-entrenched and fiscally sound smaller and mid-cap companies sill truly benefit.

Despite the run-up in (most) stock prices since my call on November 2 to begin buying unbelievably cheap common stocks, it's still quite far from being too late to build a long-term portfolio. This bull market has just begun actually.

Good luck.
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Old 12-07-2016, 10:04 AM   #71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by reckless
Highnote.... your stock investments seems to be of the speculative variety. Do you think that's the best way to go forward, especially since we are in a generational buying opportunity?

The Trump presidency will prove to be a boom for all stocks, but most definitely very large capitalization companies plus well-entrenched and fiscally sound smaller and mid-cap companies sill truly benefit.

Despite the run-up in (most) stock prices since my call on November 2 to begin buying unbelievably cheap common stocks, it's still quite far from being too late to build a long-term portfolio. This bull market has just begun actually.

Good luck.
what about gold mining company's?
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Old 12-07-2016, 10:25 AM   #72
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Quote:
Originally Posted by reckless
Highnote.... your stock investments seems to be of the speculative variety. Do you think that's the best way to go forward, especially since we are in a generational buying opportunity?

The Trump presidency will prove to be a boom for all stocks, but most definitely very large capitalization companies plus well-entrenched and fiscally sound smaller and mid-cap companies sill truly benefit.

Despite the run-up in (most) stock prices since my call on November 2 to begin buying unbelievably cheap common stocks, it's still quite far from being too late to build a long-term portfolio. This bull market has just begun actually.

Good luck.

Are you sure that this bull market has just begun? Yes, if we do actually get a 15% corporate tax rate and less regulation, it should be great for profits. Ireland cut their corporate tax rate to 12.5% and their GDP is three times better than ours.

But, aren't there uncertainties in today's market that didn't exist years ago? For instance, many American companies have greatly benefited from emerging markets in China, India, South America. Are those markets going to stay strong? The Fed used quantitative easing to artificially keep the stock market from falling. And for the past twenty years the market has gotten used to a very low prime interest rate. Once these new economic policies kick in, the Fed will almost surely have to continue to raise interest rates to protect against inflation. How will the market react to higher interest rates?

I'm not trying to be argumentative, I'm just curious what people think about this. We had the second most severe economic collapse in history and the stock market kept going up. Can it go down in good times?
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Old 12-07-2016, 02:16 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by reckless
We're getting very close to a generational buying opportunity in investing, especially if one's horizon is in years and not minutes or hours. Day traders, chartists, business TV gurus, nor 'players' see this lifetime chance, and that's OK by me.
Well, it's looking more and more like you might be right and I was dead wrong.

Breaking out to all time highs on the S&P as I type this...viva Trump!
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Old 12-07-2016, 02:20 PM   #74
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Originally Posted by reckless
Highnote.... your stock investments seems to be of the speculative variety. Do you think that's the best way to go forward, especially since we are in a generational buying opportunity?
They are not as speculative as you think. They have fairly sound fundamentals. They are just small companies with low stock prices. So I buy lots of shares. It doesn't take a big move to make 30 or 40 percent.

I bought PACD and CPSS at 3 and 4 dollars a month ago. They are up to 4 and 5 dollars now -- both have about 35% gains.

Also, these small stock trades are what Warren Buffett calls "cigar butts" -- mediocre companies at great prices. You find a cigar butt on the ground and can get one or two puffs for free, you make 50% per year with low risk. Charlie Munger came along and said they're great trades when your capital is limited, but the methodology is not scalable. So now Buffett buys great companies at reasonable prices.

Since I don't have the problem that Buffett has with having so much money it's hard to find places to invest, I can look for cigar butts.

Also, these cigar butts are only a fraction of my portfolio. My core holdings are Berkshire-Hathaway, Philip Morris and Weyerhouser. Those are up 8, 2, and 26 percent since I bought them 2 years ago this month. PM and WY yield about 4% in dividends.


Quote:
Originally Posted by reckless
The Trump presidency will prove to be a boom for all stocks, but most definitely very large capitalization companies plus well-entrenched and fiscally sound smaller and mid-cap companies sill truly benefit.
Trump certainly hasn't hurt the market. But stocks have done very well under Obama, too, as the Fed has kept rates low. When he took office the S&P was at 1350. Today it is at 2225. That is a 65% gain. If Trump can do the same the S&P will be at 3671 in 8 years.

My near term target, based on the indicators I use, is 2350 to 2450 between Jan 2017 and Jan 2018.

Quote:
Originally Posted by reckless
Despite the run-up in (most) stock prices since my call on November 2 to begin buying unbelievably cheap common stocks, it's still quite far from being too late to build a long-term portfolio. This bull market has just begun actually.

Good luck.
My biggest "buy" indicator came back on July 12. I believe we are seeing the continuation of the bull market that was signaled back in July. On July 12, the ratio of the 10 day average of up stocks to down stocks on the NYSE was 2.18 to 1. That signaled huge momentum. It is a very rare indicator. It only happens once every several years. The last time it happened was back in March of 2009 -- just after Obama took office. Ironically, it also happened as he was just about to leave office. I will leave it to others to interpret that as they wish.

There were also signs at the end of June that a bull market was forming when the ratio of advancing volume to declining volume reached 9 to 1. That is big volume to the upside. And for the next 10 days people continued to buy which led to the 2 to 1 up stocks to down stocks ratio.

The trend is your friend.

Last edited by highnote; 12-07-2016 at 02:22 PM.
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Old 12-07-2016, 02:27 PM   #75
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Originally Posted by lamboguy
what about gold mining company's?
I own shares in Hecla Mining. I bought a bunch at $1.50 last year. Then it went to $3 and I was ecstatic and sold off about half. Then it kept going higher and I realized I made a mistake so I bought back what I sold. I had to pay 3.80. So I lost out on that 80 cents.

It's up to 6.50 and has been over 7. But I'm just holding it as a hedge. It is up 72 percent since I re-bought it last April. My average gains are even higher than that. It's been the best performer in my portfolio.
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