New York Gaming Commission to vote on allowing jackpot bets

[dilanesp]

Andy:

I take your post seriously given your position at NYRA.

But racetrack operators around the country have been adopting these bets.

And a cardinal rule of business analysis, that has served me well, is that if almost all the major actors in the field adopt a certain practice, that probably means that their numbers show that it is favorable.

For instance, one major airline still doesn't charge for a first checked bag (Southwest). All the others charge, including carriers like JetBlue who were at first resistant to it.

So if someone posted on an airline discussion board "here's this argument about how this is really dumb because it alienates the airline's customers, etc.", I would generally not be favorably inclined towards that argument. Because presumably all the airlines who have adopted the bag charges are aware of the arguments, have taken them into account, and have determined that the fees are profitable.

This is no longer just Stronach experimenting with the Rainbow 6 at Gulfstream. These bets have spread like wildfire. That doesn't happen in the absence of real numbers.

[thaskalos]

"Boring" Andy Beyer gives his opinion on the Rainbow-6. Please fast forward to the 16:00 mark.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0woTTMGFsZs&t=1368s

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Andy:

I take your post seriously given your position at NYRA.

But racetrack operators around the country have been adopting these bets.

And a cardinal rule of business analysis, that has served me well, is that if almost all the major actors in the field adopt a certain practice, that probably means that their numbers show that it is favorable.

For instance, one major airline still doesn't charge for a first checked bag (Southwest). All the others charge, including carriers like JetBlue who were at first resistant to it.

So if someone posted on an airline discussion board "here's this argument about how this is really dumb because it alienates the airline's customers, etc.", I would generally not be favorably inclined towards that argument. Because presumably all the airlines who have adopted the bag charges are aware of the arguments, have taken them into account, and have determined that the fees are profitable.

This is no longer just Stronach experimenting with the Rainbow 6 at Gulfstream. These bets have spread like wildfire. That doesn't happen in the absence of real numbers.

With all due respect, I don't see this as an answer to why YOU labeled it as successful.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Andy:

I take your post seriously given your position at NYRA.

But racetrack operators around the country have been adopting these bets.

And a cardinal rule of business analysis, that has served me well, is that if almost all the major actors in the field adopt a certain practice, that probably means that their numbers show that it is favorable.

Considering that if you read this board every day, the level of intelligence of racetrack operators is somewhere between that of a rock and a turnip, the fact they're all jumping on the bandwagon of a bet is almost a negative rather than a positive, isn't it?

If you can show where these bets have been increasing handle, have at it. They're just cannibalizing other, fairer bets.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by the little guy

With all due respect, I don't see this as an answer to why YOU labeled it as successful.

It is clearly successful if it is spreading throughout the industry.

Racetrack operators are not stupid. They don't say "wow, here's this new wager that is unsuccessful at other tracks- let's adopt it!"

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

"Boring" Andy Beyer gives his opinion on the Rainbow-6...

Beyer may be a lot of things but boring is not one of them. He also obviously won't be accused of being a shill for track management either.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Beyer may be a lot of things but boring is not one of them. He also obviously won't be accused of being a shill for track management either.

That's what I call "substance"! And, sadly...it isn't to be found on TVG at the present time. But, as they say...we are still relatively young, and we can still hope.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by castaway01

Considering that if you read this board every day, the level of intelligence of racetrack operators is somewhere between that of a rock and a turnip, the fact they're all jumping on the bandwagon of a bet is almost a negative rather than a positive, isn't it?

I don't agree with that at all.

Even poor performers in fields that require a lot of expertise will still know more than laymen do.

For instance, the worst coach in the NFL still knows far, far more about coaching football than the average fan does.

The same is true in business. I don't have to believe that racetrack officials are brilliant businesspeople (I don't think they are all dumb and awful, but I am not sure I would call them brilliant either) to understand that they have access to real numbers and analyses on wagering that I don't have, and are better able to analyze if a product is successful than I would be.

If any of us got a job in racetrack management, we would quickly find that the job requires a ton of expertise and is far, far more data driven and far, far more complicated than it might appear. And we would find that we suddenly have access to a ton of internal data that is relevant to debates we have here all the time (for instance, on bettors' response to takeout and on live attendance versus betting handle) but which the general public never sees.

From outside, you can certainly say that person X does a really good or really bad job, but you can't evaluate all the specific decisions based on an assumption that we are brilliant and all the people who run tracks are idiots.

That is simply not the way the business world works.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Beyer may be a lot of things but boring is not one of them.

Don't tell ME. Tell PANDY!

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

...For instance, one major airline still doesn't charge for a first checked bag (Southwest). All the others charge, including carriers like JetBlue who were at first resistant to it.

So if someone posted on an airline discussion board "here's this argument about how this is really dumb because it alienates the airline's customers, etc.", I would generally not be favorably inclined towards that argument. Because presumably all the airlines who have adopted the bag charges are aware of the arguments, have taken them into account, and have determined that the fees are profitable....

Most people don't fly as an option, they need to get from A to B in a short period of time. And most people need to take a bag. Being in a highly regulated industry with minimal competition they can piss off customers while raising revenue.

The only thing the tracks have been successful in doing with the jackpot bets is removing a playable bet for good players and replacing it with a sucker bet for the uninformed. So in flying terms the tracks have pissed off their frequent first-class flyers in favor of the economy class bargain hunters.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Most people don't fly as an option, they need to get from A to B in a short period of time. And most people need to take a bag. Being in a highly regulated industry with minimal competition they can piss off customers while raising revenue.

The only thing the tracks have been successful in doing with the jackpot bets is removing a playable bet for good players and replacing it with a sucker bet for the uninformed. So in flying terms the tracks have pissed off their frequent first-class flyers in favor of the economy class bargain hunters.

The thing is, that's Spirit Airlines' business model, and Spirit is profitable.

You know what the truth may be here-- a very uncomfortable truth? The tracks might be making more money catering to the jackpot hunters with the pick 6 than they made catering to the first class frequent horseplayers.....

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

The thing is, that's Spirit Airlines' business model, and Spirit is profitable.

You know what the truth may be here-- a very uncomfortable truth? The tracks might be making more money catering to the jackpot hunters with the pick 6 than they made catering to the first class frequent horseplayers.....

I doubt that more money is being made but even if that were the case, tracks will soon find out that jackpot hunters are here today and gone at the sign of a new jackpot elsewhere. Taking a betting staple away from the better players now will only give them more reason to hit the road for good.

[spiketoo]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

You know what the truth may be here-- a very uncomfortable truth? The tracks might be making more money catering to the jackpot hunters with the pick 6 than they made catering to the first class frequent horseplayers.....

And earlier you stated

If nobody liked these bets, they wouldn't be successful.

Obviously they must generate handle.

Every bet generates handle. My question here is does it decrease daily handle in the hopes of increased handle IF they jackpot swells? I haven't seen any numbers and you have provided none yet you deem this a successful bet.

I assume mgmt isn't stupid but like the product they present, they have a herd mentality. NYRA stated such when they said others are offering this and from biz perspective we need the 'optionaility' (their words not mine) to offer it once approved.

My take here is that the tracks want to go after the lotto player who doesn't play unless there's a big jackpot on the line (big is relative here). They're obviously not in the biz to lose revenue and any handle is good handle but I wonder if this reduces daily P6 handle that may be made up down the line when the jackpot swells. W/O numbers I don't know. DM had the jackpot hit numerous times during their meet after only a few days of CO so I'm guessing that theory didn't work for them. But just saying it's successful because others do it is myopic.

I'm a P6 player and I stopped betting tracks that offer this and NYRA was one of the last large-circuit bastions that did not. I survive on consols as I hit more of those (let's not talk what constitutes 'more' here). Tracks that offer this bet cut the total consol pool by 50% to fund the jackpot which is why they've lost my business.

I'm not saying (at least in this thread) tracks should reduce their revenue stream nor would I expect them to be altruistic here, but do the analytics justify creating a lotto type bet to maybe get some additional fans on jackpot days? I don't believe you can say these are successful without substantiating such just as I can't say they may be loss leaders.

I'm also guessing any type of analytics probably doesn't quantify the goodwill that may be lost to players like myself but since goodwill has gone the way of the quinella...

[JohnGalt1]

The reason most airlines charge for baggage is to keep the basic fares low to attract those using the computer to search rates.


Same applies to hotels and resort fees. A customer buys a lower priced room then gets charged a daily $25-35 resort fee.


Gulfstream is the only track that is very successful with their SUCKER jackpot 6.


Others struggle to get much play for their pick 5 and 6 jackpots.


Arlington had $1000 carryover closing day, I didn't play.


Tracks don't have to make every bet affordable to everyone. I can't afford to play the dollar minimum Hi-5 bets, so I don't play.


I take Andy Beyer's advice and save jackpot money for regular pick 4's and 5's.

And Canterbury's SUCKER pick 5 money for pick 4's.

[SG4]

So in reading about NY proposing a jackpot bet to be approved for usage there is mention of a 60 day public-comment period. How or where can someone comment on this issue? I do not readily see anything available on the NYS Gaming Commission website, anyone with knowledge on this?